Synoptic circulation changes over Central Europe from 1900 to 2100: Reanalyses and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6
Abstract While the evidence for anthropogenic climate change continues to strengthen, and concerns about severe weather events are increasing, global projections of regional climate change are still uncertain due to model‐dependent changes in large‐scale atmospheric circulation, including over North...
Published in: | International Journal of Climatology |
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crwiley:10.1002/joc.7481 2024-09-30T14:39:39+00:00 Synoptic circulation changes over Central Europe from 1900 to 2100: Reanalyses and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 Herrera‐Lormendez, Pedro Mastrantonas, Nikolaos Douville, Hervé Hoy, Andreas Matschullat, Jörg H2020 Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions 2021 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.7481 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.7481 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/joc.7481 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.7481 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ International Journal of Climatology volume 42, issue 7, page 4062-4077 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 journal-article 2021 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7481 2024-09-19T04:18:36Z Abstract While the evidence for anthropogenic climate change continues to strengthen, and concerns about severe weather events are increasing, global projections of regional climate change are still uncertain due to model‐dependent changes in large‐scale atmospheric circulation, including over North Atlantic and Europe. Here, the Jenkinson–Collison classification of daily circulation patterns is used to evaluate past and future changes in their seasonal frequencies over Central Europe for the 1900–2100 period. Three reanalyses and eight global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6, were used based on daily mean sea‐level pressure data. Best agreement in deriving relative frequencies of the synoptic types was found between the reanalyses. Global models can generally capture the interannual variability of circulation patterns and their climatological state, especially for the less frequent synoptic types. Based on historical data and the shared socioeconomic pathway 5 scenario, the evaluated trends show more robust signals during summer, given their lesser internal variability. Increasing frequencies were found for circulation types characterized by weak pressure gradients, mainly at the expense of decreasing frequencies of westerlies. Our findings indicate that given a high‐emission scenario, these signals will likely emerge from past climate variability towards the mid‐21st century for most altered circulation patterns. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Wiley Online Library International Journal of Climatology 42 7 4062 4077 |
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Open Polar |
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Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
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English |
description |
Abstract While the evidence for anthropogenic climate change continues to strengthen, and concerns about severe weather events are increasing, global projections of regional climate change are still uncertain due to model‐dependent changes in large‐scale atmospheric circulation, including over North Atlantic and Europe. Here, the Jenkinson–Collison classification of daily circulation patterns is used to evaluate past and future changes in their seasonal frequencies over Central Europe for the 1900–2100 period. Three reanalyses and eight global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6, were used based on daily mean sea‐level pressure data. Best agreement in deriving relative frequencies of the synoptic types was found between the reanalyses. Global models can generally capture the interannual variability of circulation patterns and their climatological state, especially for the less frequent synoptic types. Based on historical data and the shared socioeconomic pathway 5 scenario, the evaluated trends show more robust signals during summer, given their lesser internal variability. Increasing frequencies were found for circulation types characterized by weak pressure gradients, mainly at the expense of decreasing frequencies of westerlies. Our findings indicate that given a high‐emission scenario, these signals will likely emerge from past climate variability towards the mid‐21st century for most altered circulation patterns. |
author2 |
H2020 Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Herrera‐Lormendez, Pedro Mastrantonas, Nikolaos Douville, Hervé Hoy, Andreas Matschullat, Jörg |
spellingShingle |
Herrera‐Lormendez, Pedro Mastrantonas, Nikolaos Douville, Hervé Hoy, Andreas Matschullat, Jörg Synoptic circulation changes over Central Europe from 1900 to 2100: Reanalyses and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 |
author_facet |
Herrera‐Lormendez, Pedro Mastrantonas, Nikolaos Douville, Hervé Hoy, Andreas Matschullat, Jörg |
author_sort |
Herrera‐Lormendez, Pedro |
title |
Synoptic circulation changes over Central Europe from 1900 to 2100: Reanalyses and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 |
title_short |
Synoptic circulation changes over Central Europe from 1900 to 2100: Reanalyses and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 |
title_full |
Synoptic circulation changes over Central Europe from 1900 to 2100: Reanalyses and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 |
title_fullStr |
Synoptic circulation changes over Central Europe from 1900 to 2100: Reanalyses and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Synoptic circulation changes over Central Europe from 1900 to 2100: Reanalyses and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 |
title_sort |
synoptic circulation changes over central europe from 1900 to 2100: reanalyses and coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.7481 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.7481 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/joc.7481 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.7481 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
International Journal of Climatology volume 42, issue 7, page 4062-4077 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7481 |
container_title |
International Journal of Climatology |
container_volume |
42 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
4062 |
op_container_end_page |
4077 |
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1811642258417516544 |