Possible connection between declining Barents Sea ice and interdecadal increasing northeast China precipitation in May

• Published in: International Journal of Climatology
• Main Authors: Li, Xingxing, Sun, Jianqi, Zhang, Mengqi, Zhang, Ying, Ma, Jiehua
• Other Authors: National Natural Science Foundation of China
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Wiley 2021
• Subjects: Arctic; Barents Sea; Sea ice
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.7193; https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.7193; https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/joc.7193; https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.7193

Abstract Northeast China is a major agricultural production base in East Asia, and spring is the agricultural ploughing season throughout the region. The precipitation in spring is therefore significant to agricultural activity and production in the region. In this study, the interdecadal variation in spring precipitation across northeast China is investigated. In the past four decades, there has been a significant increase in spring precipitation in northeast China, and the increase in May precipitation made a dominant contribution to that increase. Further analysis indicates that the increase in May precipitation is concurrent with the decline in Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) over the Barents Sea; both variables show an interdecadal shift around the early 2000s. Physical analysis based on observations and numerical simulations demonstrates that a decline in the Barents Sea SIC could excite a Rossby wave train propagating southeastward across the Mongolia‐Baikal region and reaching northeast China, thereby inducing a zonal anticyclone–cyclone–anticyclone teleconnection pattern over mid‐ to high‐latitude Eurasia. Under the influence of such a teleconnection pattern, significant southerlies prevail over northeast China, bringing warm and wet air to the region; in addition, the local atmospheric instability and upward motion are also increased. The changes in the moisture and dynamic conditions favour the increase in May precipitation over northeast China. Furthermore, SIC anomalies in the Barents Sea persist from late winter to spring; therefore, the SIC signal could provide signals for predictions of the interdecadal changes in May precipitation over northeast China.