Decadal phase shift of summertime Arctic dipole pattern and its nonlinear effect on sea ice extent
Abstract The rapid decline in Arctic sea ice during recent decades has been attributed to the combined influence of global warming and internal climate variability. Herein, we elucidate the process by which the decrease in sea ice is accelerated in association with the decadal phase shift of the Arc...
Published in: | International Journal of Climatology |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , |
Other Authors: | |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Wiley
2021
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.7097 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.7097 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/joc.7097 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.7097 |
id |
crwiley:10.1002/joc.7097 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
crwiley:10.1002/joc.7097 2024-06-02T08:00:59+00:00 Decadal phase shift of summertime Arctic dipole pattern and its nonlinear effect on sea ice extent Heo, Eun‐Sook Sung, Mi‐Kyung An, Soon‐Il Yang, Young‐Min National Research Foundation of Korea 2021 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.7097 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.7097 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/joc.7097 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.7097 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ International Journal of Climatology volume 41, issue 9, page 4732-4742 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 journal-article 2021 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7097 2024-05-03T10:50:34Z Abstract The rapid decline in Arctic sea ice during recent decades has been attributed to the combined influence of global warming and internal climate variability. Herein, we elucidate the process by which the decrease in sea ice is accelerated in association with the decadal phase shift of the Arctic dipole (AD), using observational data and Community Earth System Model (CESM1) simulations. The influence of the AD on Arctic sea ice varied according to its phase; in the negative‐AD decades (1979–1998), atmospheric circulation during summers of positive phase AD acts to reduce the sea ice extent (SIE) in the Pacific sector but increases it in the Atlantic sector. In contrast, in the positive‐AD decades (after 1999), the same atmospheric circulation pattern reduces the SIE in both sectors, resulting in enhanced sea ice melting across the entire Arctic region. A similar nonlinear relationship between the AD phase and SIE change is also observed in CESM1 Pre‐Industrial simulations, which stem from altered background temperature conditions between periods, implying the significant role of internal variability, particularly over the Atlantic sector. However, contrary to the recently observed AD trend, CESM1 Large Ensemble experiments predicted a negative AD trend as global warming proceeded. This suggests that the recent positive AD phase may be naturally driven, but the current state of sea ice decline associated with AD could be altered in the near future because of enhanced global warming. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Global warming Sea ice Wiley Online Library Arctic Pacific International Journal of Climatology |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Wiley Online Library |
op_collection_id |
crwiley |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract The rapid decline in Arctic sea ice during recent decades has been attributed to the combined influence of global warming and internal climate variability. Herein, we elucidate the process by which the decrease in sea ice is accelerated in association with the decadal phase shift of the Arctic dipole (AD), using observational data and Community Earth System Model (CESM1) simulations. The influence of the AD on Arctic sea ice varied according to its phase; in the negative‐AD decades (1979–1998), atmospheric circulation during summers of positive phase AD acts to reduce the sea ice extent (SIE) in the Pacific sector but increases it in the Atlantic sector. In contrast, in the positive‐AD decades (after 1999), the same atmospheric circulation pattern reduces the SIE in both sectors, resulting in enhanced sea ice melting across the entire Arctic region. A similar nonlinear relationship between the AD phase and SIE change is also observed in CESM1 Pre‐Industrial simulations, which stem from altered background temperature conditions between periods, implying the significant role of internal variability, particularly over the Atlantic sector. However, contrary to the recently observed AD trend, CESM1 Large Ensemble experiments predicted a negative AD trend as global warming proceeded. This suggests that the recent positive AD phase may be naturally driven, but the current state of sea ice decline associated with AD could be altered in the near future because of enhanced global warming. |
author2 |
National Research Foundation of Korea |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Heo, Eun‐Sook Sung, Mi‐Kyung An, Soon‐Il Yang, Young‐Min |
spellingShingle |
Heo, Eun‐Sook Sung, Mi‐Kyung An, Soon‐Il Yang, Young‐Min Decadal phase shift of summertime Arctic dipole pattern and its nonlinear effect on sea ice extent |
author_facet |
Heo, Eun‐Sook Sung, Mi‐Kyung An, Soon‐Il Yang, Young‐Min |
author_sort |
Heo, Eun‐Sook |
title |
Decadal phase shift of summertime Arctic dipole pattern and its nonlinear effect on sea ice extent |
title_short |
Decadal phase shift of summertime Arctic dipole pattern and its nonlinear effect on sea ice extent |
title_full |
Decadal phase shift of summertime Arctic dipole pattern and its nonlinear effect on sea ice extent |
title_fullStr |
Decadal phase shift of summertime Arctic dipole pattern and its nonlinear effect on sea ice extent |
title_full_unstemmed |
Decadal phase shift of summertime Arctic dipole pattern and its nonlinear effect on sea ice extent |
title_sort |
decadal phase shift of summertime arctic dipole pattern and its nonlinear effect on sea ice extent |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.7097 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.7097 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/joc.7097 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.7097 |
geographic |
Arctic Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Pacific |
genre |
Arctic Global warming Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Global warming Sea ice |
op_source |
International Journal of Climatology volume 41, issue 9, page 4732-4742 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7097 |
container_title |
International Journal of Climatology |
_version_ |
1800745224573550592 |