Predictability of the mid‐summer surface air temperature over the Yangtze River valley in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System
Abstract By using the hindcast and forecast data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System version 2 (NCEP CFSv2) for the 1982–2018 period, we investigate the forecasting skills of the mid‐summer (July and August) surface air temperature (SAT) at interannual time...
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crwiley:10.1002/joc.6670 2024-09-09T19:56:41+00:00 Predictability of the mid‐summer surface air temperature over the Yangtze River valley in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Tang, Shankai Qiao, Shaobo Feng, Taichen Jia, Zikang Zang, Naihui Feng, Guolin China Postdoctoral Science Foundation National Natural Science Foundation of China National Basic Research Program of China 2020 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.6670 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fjoc.6670 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.6670 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/joc.6670 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.6670 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor International Journal of Climatology volume 41, issue 2, page 811-829 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 journal-article 2020 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6670 2024-08-09T04:21:53Z Abstract By using the hindcast and forecast data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System version 2 (NCEP CFSv2) for the 1982–2018 period, we investigate the forecasting skills of the mid‐summer (July and August) surface air temperature (SAT) at interannual timescales in this study. Although CFSv2 predictions show a warm bias for the climatological mean SAT over the Yangtze River valley (25°–32°N, 105°–122°E), they show a consistent and great performance in predicting the interannual variability of the mid‐summer SAT over this region until 4 months in advance, where the linear correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed time series reaches +0.65, +0.51 and + 0.68 for 4, 2 and 0 months in advance, respectively. The CFSv2 predictions well simulate the linkage between the SAT anomalies over the Yangtze River valley and the anomalous atmospheric circulation aloft, including the circumglobal teleconnection and zonal extension of the Western Pacific Subtropical High. However, CFSv2 has trouble in simulating the associated vertical velocity, cloud cover and solar radiation anomalies, except for 0 months in advance. The persistent forecasting skills result from the accurate response of the circumglobal teleconnection and Western Pacific Subtropical High to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the mid‐latitude North Atlantic. Correspondingly, the forecasting skill, signal and signal‐to‐noise ratio are effectively improved in the years with strong mid‐summer SST anomalies over the tropical central‐eastern Pacific or mid‐latitude North Atlantic. These results are useful for understanding the predictability of the mid‐summer SAT over the Yangtze River valley. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Wiley Online Library Pacific International Journal of Climatology 41 2 811 829 |
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Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
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English |
description |
Abstract By using the hindcast and forecast data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System version 2 (NCEP CFSv2) for the 1982–2018 period, we investigate the forecasting skills of the mid‐summer (July and August) surface air temperature (SAT) at interannual timescales in this study. Although CFSv2 predictions show a warm bias for the climatological mean SAT over the Yangtze River valley (25°–32°N, 105°–122°E), they show a consistent and great performance in predicting the interannual variability of the mid‐summer SAT over this region until 4 months in advance, where the linear correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed time series reaches +0.65, +0.51 and + 0.68 for 4, 2 and 0 months in advance, respectively. The CFSv2 predictions well simulate the linkage between the SAT anomalies over the Yangtze River valley and the anomalous atmospheric circulation aloft, including the circumglobal teleconnection and zonal extension of the Western Pacific Subtropical High. However, CFSv2 has trouble in simulating the associated vertical velocity, cloud cover and solar radiation anomalies, except for 0 months in advance. The persistent forecasting skills result from the accurate response of the circumglobal teleconnection and Western Pacific Subtropical High to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the mid‐latitude North Atlantic. Correspondingly, the forecasting skill, signal and signal‐to‐noise ratio are effectively improved in the years with strong mid‐summer SST anomalies over the tropical central‐eastern Pacific or mid‐latitude North Atlantic. These results are useful for understanding the predictability of the mid‐summer SAT over the Yangtze River valley. |
author2 |
China Postdoctoral Science Foundation National Natural Science Foundation of China National Basic Research Program of China |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Tang, Shankai Qiao, Shaobo Feng, Taichen Jia, Zikang Zang, Naihui Feng, Guolin |
spellingShingle |
Tang, Shankai Qiao, Shaobo Feng, Taichen Jia, Zikang Zang, Naihui Feng, Guolin Predictability of the mid‐summer surface air temperature over the Yangtze River valley in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System |
author_facet |
Tang, Shankai Qiao, Shaobo Feng, Taichen Jia, Zikang Zang, Naihui Feng, Guolin |
author_sort |
Tang, Shankai |
title |
Predictability of the mid‐summer surface air temperature over the Yangtze River valley in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System |
title_short |
Predictability of the mid‐summer surface air temperature over the Yangtze River valley in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System |
title_full |
Predictability of the mid‐summer surface air temperature over the Yangtze River valley in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System |
title_fullStr |
Predictability of the mid‐summer surface air temperature over the Yangtze River valley in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predictability of the mid‐summer surface air temperature over the Yangtze River valley in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System |
title_sort |
predictability of the mid‐summer surface air temperature over the yangtze river valley in the national centers for environmental prediction climate forecast system |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.6670 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fjoc.6670 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.6670 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/joc.6670 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.6670 |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
International Journal of Climatology volume 41, issue 2, page 811-829 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6670 |
container_title |
International Journal of Climatology |
container_volume |
41 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
811 |
op_container_end_page |
829 |
_version_ |
1809927455072321536 |