Skilful two‐month‐leading hybrid climate prediction for winter temperature over China
Abstract Two skilful 2‐month‐leading hybrid downscaling prediction schemes in October for winter surface air temperature (SAT) over China are proposed in this paper. The schemes are based on the year‐to‐year increment approach and the coupled climate patterns between the winter SAT over China and it...
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crwiley:10.1002/joc.6497 2024-06-02T08:02:45+00:00 Skilful two‐month‐leading hybrid climate prediction for winter temperature over China Dai, Haixia Fan, Ke National Natural Science Foundation of China 2020 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.6497 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fjoc.6497 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.6497 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/joc.6497 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.6497 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor International Journal of Climatology volume 40, issue 11, page 4922-4943 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 journal-article 2020 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6497 2024-05-03T11:58:17Z Abstract Two skilful 2‐month‐leading hybrid downscaling prediction schemes in October for winter surface air temperature (SAT) over China are proposed in this paper. The schemes are based on the year‐to‐year increment approach and the coupled climate patterns between the winter SAT over China and its predictors. Observed North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) from the preceding July to September, Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) in the preceding August and winter sea level pressure (SLP) over pan Eurasia from version 2 of the Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) are selected as the predictors based on the fundamental physics. Individual‐predictor schemes (IP‐schemes), that is, SLP‐scheme, SST‐scheme, SIC‐scheme, indicate that these predictors exhibit prediction skills in different regions. Multi‐predictor scheme I (MP‐schemeI) is developed by combining three predictors. However, MP‐schemeI shows limited skill in predicting SAT over Northeast China (NECTA), due to the limited skill of CFSv2 over the extratropics. Thus, MP‐schemeII is established, in which a hybrid downscaling model for NECTA is constructed. These two MP‐schemes have comparable prediction skill over China, but MP‐schemeII outperforms MP‐schemeI over NEC. The temporal (spatial) anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) increases from 0.23 (0.15) in MP‐schemeI to 0.36 (0.21) in MP‐schemeII, and the ratio of the same sign of anomalous years (Anomalous‐RSS) improves from 39.1% to 56.5% over NEC. For the winter SAT over China, the MP‐schemes greatly enhance the prediction compared with CFSv2 outputs and the IP‐schemes. The temporal (spatial) ACC increases from 0.29 (0.05) in CFSv2 to 0.52 (0.29) in the MP‐schemes, and the station‐average root‐mean‐square error decreases by about 48.0% compared with CFSv2. Moreover, the RSS (Anomalous‐RSS) of the winter SAT over China is 55.9% (47.4%) in CFSv2 and 64.7% (63.2%) in the MP‐schemes. This indicates that the MP‐schemes perform better in predicting anomalous winters. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Sea ice Wiley Online Library Arctic Pacific International Journal of Climatology 40 11 4922 4943 |
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Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
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English |
description |
Abstract Two skilful 2‐month‐leading hybrid downscaling prediction schemes in October for winter surface air temperature (SAT) over China are proposed in this paper. The schemes are based on the year‐to‐year increment approach and the coupled climate patterns between the winter SAT over China and its predictors. Observed North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) from the preceding July to September, Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) in the preceding August and winter sea level pressure (SLP) over pan Eurasia from version 2 of the Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) are selected as the predictors based on the fundamental physics. Individual‐predictor schemes (IP‐schemes), that is, SLP‐scheme, SST‐scheme, SIC‐scheme, indicate that these predictors exhibit prediction skills in different regions. Multi‐predictor scheme I (MP‐schemeI) is developed by combining three predictors. However, MP‐schemeI shows limited skill in predicting SAT over Northeast China (NECTA), due to the limited skill of CFSv2 over the extratropics. Thus, MP‐schemeII is established, in which a hybrid downscaling model for NECTA is constructed. These two MP‐schemes have comparable prediction skill over China, but MP‐schemeII outperforms MP‐schemeI over NEC. The temporal (spatial) anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) increases from 0.23 (0.15) in MP‐schemeI to 0.36 (0.21) in MP‐schemeII, and the ratio of the same sign of anomalous years (Anomalous‐RSS) improves from 39.1% to 56.5% over NEC. For the winter SAT over China, the MP‐schemes greatly enhance the prediction compared with CFSv2 outputs and the IP‐schemes. The temporal (spatial) ACC increases from 0.29 (0.05) in CFSv2 to 0.52 (0.29) in the MP‐schemes, and the station‐average root‐mean‐square error decreases by about 48.0% compared with CFSv2. Moreover, the RSS (Anomalous‐RSS) of the winter SAT over China is 55.9% (47.4%) in CFSv2 and 64.7% (63.2%) in the MP‐schemes. This indicates that the MP‐schemes perform better in predicting anomalous winters. |
author2 |
National Natural Science Foundation of China |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Dai, Haixia Fan, Ke |
spellingShingle |
Dai, Haixia Fan, Ke Skilful two‐month‐leading hybrid climate prediction for winter temperature over China |
author_facet |
Dai, Haixia Fan, Ke |
author_sort |
Dai, Haixia |
title |
Skilful two‐month‐leading hybrid climate prediction for winter temperature over China |
title_short |
Skilful two‐month‐leading hybrid climate prediction for winter temperature over China |
title_full |
Skilful two‐month‐leading hybrid climate prediction for winter temperature over China |
title_fullStr |
Skilful two‐month‐leading hybrid climate prediction for winter temperature over China |
title_full_unstemmed |
Skilful two‐month‐leading hybrid climate prediction for winter temperature over China |
title_sort |
skilful two‐month‐leading hybrid climate prediction for winter temperature over china |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.6497 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fjoc.6497 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.6497 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/joc.6497 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.6497 |
geographic |
Arctic Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Pacific |
genre |
Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Sea ice |
op_source |
International Journal of Climatology volume 40, issue 11, page 4922-4943 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6497 |
container_title |
International Journal of Climatology |
container_volume |
40 |
container_issue |
11 |
container_start_page |
4922 |
op_container_end_page |
4943 |
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1800747224287674368 |