NORA10EI: A revised regional atmosphere‐wave hindcast for the North Sea, the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea
Abstract NORA10EI, a new atmosphere and wave hindcast for the Norwegian Sea, the North Sea and the Barents Sea is presented. The hindcast uses ERA‐Interim as initial and boundary conditions and covers the period 1979–2017. The earlier NORA10 hindcast used ERA‐40 as initial and boundary conditions be...
Published in: | International Journal of Climatology |
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crwiley:10.1002/joc.6458 2024-06-02T08:04:08+00:00 NORA10EI: A revised regional atmosphere‐wave hindcast for the North Sea, the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea Haakenstad, Hilde Breivik, Øyvind Reistad, Magnar Aarnes, Ole J. 2020 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.6458 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fjoc.6458 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.6458 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/joc.6458 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.6458 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ International Journal of Climatology volume 40, issue 10, page 4347-4373 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 journal-article 2020 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6458 2024-05-03T11:23:19Z Abstract NORA10EI, a new atmosphere and wave hindcast for the Norwegian Sea, the North Sea and the Barents Sea is presented. The hindcast uses ERA‐Interim as initial and boundary conditions and covers the period 1979–2017. The earlier NORA10 hindcast used ERA‐40 as initial and boundary conditions before September 2002 and operational analyses from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in the continuation. This change in initial and boundary conditions may lead to non‐stationarities in bias and random errors, and it is a question of some concern whether this also leads to spurious trends. We investigate this by comparing the two hindcasts. We find only minor differences in the statistics of means and upper percentiles, but somewhat larger differences in the extremes (100‐year return values) of significant wave height and 10‐m winds. Generally, NORA10EI outperforms NORA10 in the ERA‐40 period (before September 2002) since ERA‐Interim outperforms ERA‐40. Conversely, NORA10 outperforms NORA10EI after 2006, since the operational ECMWF analyses here outperform ERA‐Interim. Years 2002–2006 is a transition period with minor differences between the NORA10 and NORA10EI where the resolution of ERA‐Interim is lower than that of the ECMWF analyses, but its physics are from a more recent model (2006). An important finding is that the regional hindcasts appear quite insensitive to changes in the host reanalysis with no statistically significant differences in mean and upper percentile trends of wind speed and wave height. A comparison of four polar low cases confirms that using ERA‐Interim as host reanalysis yields a slightly better representation of evolution and intensity of polar lows than NORA10 in the ERA‐40 period and the opposite after 2006. Article in Journal/Newspaper Barents Sea Norwegian Sea Wiley Online Library Barents Sea Norwegian Sea International Journal of Climatology 40 10 4347 4373 |
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Open Polar |
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Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract NORA10EI, a new atmosphere and wave hindcast for the Norwegian Sea, the North Sea and the Barents Sea is presented. The hindcast uses ERA‐Interim as initial and boundary conditions and covers the period 1979–2017. The earlier NORA10 hindcast used ERA‐40 as initial and boundary conditions before September 2002 and operational analyses from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in the continuation. This change in initial and boundary conditions may lead to non‐stationarities in bias and random errors, and it is a question of some concern whether this also leads to spurious trends. We investigate this by comparing the two hindcasts. We find only minor differences in the statistics of means and upper percentiles, but somewhat larger differences in the extremes (100‐year return values) of significant wave height and 10‐m winds. Generally, NORA10EI outperforms NORA10 in the ERA‐40 period (before September 2002) since ERA‐Interim outperforms ERA‐40. Conversely, NORA10 outperforms NORA10EI after 2006, since the operational ECMWF analyses here outperform ERA‐Interim. Years 2002–2006 is a transition period with minor differences between the NORA10 and NORA10EI where the resolution of ERA‐Interim is lower than that of the ECMWF analyses, but its physics are from a more recent model (2006). An important finding is that the regional hindcasts appear quite insensitive to changes in the host reanalysis with no statistically significant differences in mean and upper percentile trends of wind speed and wave height. A comparison of four polar low cases confirms that using ERA‐Interim as host reanalysis yields a slightly better representation of evolution and intensity of polar lows than NORA10 in the ERA‐40 period and the opposite after 2006. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Haakenstad, Hilde Breivik, Øyvind Reistad, Magnar Aarnes, Ole J. |
spellingShingle |
Haakenstad, Hilde Breivik, Øyvind Reistad, Magnar Aarnes, Ole J. NORA10EI: A revised regional atmosphere‐wave hindcast for the North Sea, the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea |
author_facet |
Haakenstad, Hilde Breivik, Øyvind Reistad, Magnar Aarnes, Ole J. |
author_sort |
Haakenstad, Hilde |
title |
NORA10EI: A revised regional atmosphere‐wave hindcast for the North Sea, the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea |
title_short |
NORA10EI: A revised regional atmosphere‐wave hindcast for the North Sea, the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea |
title_full |
NORA10EI: A revised regional atmosphere‐wave hindcast for the North Sea, the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea |
title_fullStr |
NORA10EI: A revised regional atmosphere‐wave hindcast for the North Sea, the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea |
title_full_unstemmed |
NORA10EI: A revised regional atmosphere‐wave hindcast for the North Sea, the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea |
title_sort |
nora10ei: a revised regional atmosphere‐wave hindcast for the north sea, the norwegian sea and the barents sea |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.6458 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fjoc.6458 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.6458 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/joc.6458 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.6458 |
geographic |
Barents Sea Norwegian Sea |
geographic_facet |
Barents Sea Norwegian Sea |
genre |
Barents Sea Norwegian Sea |
genre_facet |
Barents Sea Norwegian Sea |
op_source |
International Journal of Climatology volume 40, issue 10, page 4347-4373 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6458 |
container_title |
International Journal of Climatology |
container_volume |
40 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
4347 |
op_container_end_page |
4373 |
_version_ |
1800748775686275072 |