Climate prediction of summer extreme precipitation frequency in the Yangtze River valley based on sea surface temperature in the southern Indian Ocean and ice concentration in the Beaufort Sea
Abstract Three statistical prediction models for the summer extreme precipitation frequency (EPF) in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (MLYRV) based on the winter sea surface temperature in the southern Indian Ocean (SIO‐SST; Scheme‐SST), the spring sea‐ice concentration in th...
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crwiley:10.1002/joc.6446 2024-06-23T07:45:09+00:00 Climate prediction of summer extreme precipitation frequency in the Yangtze River valley based on sea surface temperature in the southern Indian Ocean and ice concentration in the Beaufort Sea Tian, Baoqiang Fan, Ke National Natural Science Foundation of China 2019 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.6446 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fjoc.6446 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.6446 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/joc.6446 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.6446 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor International Journal of Climatology volume 40, issue 9, page 4117-4130 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 journal-article 2019 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6446 2024-06-04T06:42:48Z Abstract Three statistical prediction models for the summer extreme precipitation frequency (EPF) in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (MLYRV) based on the winter sea surface temperature in the southern Indian Ocean (SIO‐SST; Scheme‐SST), the spring sea‐ice concentration in the Beaufort Sea (Scheme‐SIC), and both predictors (Scheme‐SS), are established by using the year‐to‐year increment method. The winter SIO‐SST may affect the SST anomaly in the east of Australia via a teleconnection pattern. The east of Australia SST signal in winter continues until the following summer and then affects the summer EPF in the MLYRV via modulation of the meridional Hadley circulation in the western North Pacific. The positive Beaufort SIC anomaly may result in a negative summer SST anomaly by the increased surface albedo. In response, the atmospheric circulation presents a dipole anomaly distribution in the Beaufort Sea and the Barents Sea. The Arctic dipole anomaly may bring about frequent extreme precipitation in the MLYRV by adjusting the position of the East Asian westerly jet and Eurasian teleconnection pattern. The prediction skill of the summer EPF for Scheme‐SS is higher than that of Scheme‐SST and Scheme‐SIC in the cross‐validation test during 1962–2017 and the independent hindcast during 1992–2017. Scheme‐SS shows a higher prediction skill of the summer EPF than that of Scheme‐SST and Scheme‐SIC, with a time correlation coefficient of 0.62, accounting for 39% of the total variance, of which 35% is the winter SIO‐SST and 4% the spring Beaufort SIC. Scheme‐SS not only shows a rather high predictive ability for the anomalous summer EPF but can also reproduce the increasing trend of extremely heavy precipitation. Article in Journal/Newspaper albedo Arctic Barents Sea Beaufort Sea Sea ice Wiley Online Library Arctic Barents Sea Indian Pacific International Journal of Climatology 40 9 4117 4130 |
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Open Polar |
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Wiley Online Library |
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English |
description |
Abstract Three statistical prediction models for the summer extreme precipitation frequency (EPF) in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (MLYRV) based on the winter sea surface temperature in the southern Indian Ocean (SIO‐SST; Scheme‐SST), the spring sea‐ice concentration in the Beaufort Sea (Scheme‐SIC), and both predictors (Scheme‐SS), are established by using the year‐to‐year increment method. The winter SIO‐SST may affect the SST anomaly in the east of Australia via a teleconnection pattern. The east of Australia SST signal in winter continues until the following summer and then affects the summer EPF in the MLYRV via modulation of the meridional Hadley circulation in the western North Pacific. The positive Beaufort SIC anomaly may result in a negative summer SST anomaly by the increased surface albedo. In response, the atmospheric circulation presents a dipole anomaly distribution in the Beaufort Sea and the Barents Sea. The Arctic dipole anomaly may bring about frequent extreme precipitation in the MLYRV by adjusting the position of the East Asian westerly jet and Eurasian teleconnection pattern. The prediction skill of the summer EPF for Scheme‐SS is higher than that of Scheme‐SST and Scheme‐SIC in the cross‐validation test during 1962–2017 and the independent hindcast during 1992–2017. Scheme‐SS shows a higher prediction skill of the summer EPF than that of Scheme‐SST and Scheme‐SIC, with a time correlation coefficient of 0.62, accounting for 39% of the total variance, of which 35% is the winter SIO‐SST and 4% the spring Beaufort SIC. Scheme‐SS not only shows a rather high predictive ability for the anomalous summer EPF but can also reproduce the increasing trend of extremely heavy precipitation. |
author2 |
National Natural Science Foundation of China |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Tian, Baoqiang Fan, Ke |
spellingShingle |
Tian, Baoqiang Fan, Ke Climate prediction of summer extreme precipitation frequency in the Yangtze River valley based on sea surface temperature in the southern Indian Ocean and ice concentration in the Beaufort Sea |
author_facet |
Tian, Baoqiang Fan, Ke |
author_sort |
Tian, Baoqiang |
title |
Climate prediction of summer extreme precipitation frequency in the Yangtze River valley based on sea surface temperature in the southern Indian Ocean and ice concentration in the Beaufort Sea |
title_short |
Climate prediction of summer extreme precipitation frequency in the Yangtze River valley based on sea surface temperature in the southern Indian Ocean and ice concentration in the Beaufort Sea |
title_full |
Climate prediction of summer extreme precipitation frequency in the Yangtze River valley based on sea surface temperature in the southern Indian Ocean and ice concentration in the Beaufort Sea |
title_fullStr |
Climate prediction of summer extreme precipitation frequency in the Yangtze River valley based on sea surface temperature in the southern Indian Ocean and ice concentration in the Beaufort Sea |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate prediction of summer extreme precipitation frequency in the Yangtze River valley based on sea surface temperature in the southern Indian Ocean and ice concentration in the Beaufort Sea |
title_sort |
climate prediction of summer extreme precipitation frequency in the yangtze river valley based on sea surface temperature in the southern indian ocean and ice concentration in the beaufort sea |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.6446 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fjoc.6446 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.6446 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/joc.6446 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.6446 |
geographic |
Arctic Barents Sea Indian Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Barents Sea Indian Pacific |
genre |
albedo Arctic Barents Sea Beaufort Sea Sea ice |
genre_facet |
albedo Arctic Barents Sea Beaufort Sea Sea ice |
op_source |
International Journal of Climatology volume 40, issue 9, page 4117-4130 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6446 |
container_title |
International Journal of Climatology |
container_volume |
40 |
container_issue |
9 |
container_start_page |
4117 |
op_container_end_page |
4130 |
_version_ |
1802651691802165248 |