Past and future impact of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation in the Caspian Sea catchment area
Abstract The Caspian Sea level (CSL) has undergone variations of more than 3 m during the past century with important implications for the life of coastal people, economy and the ecosystem. The origin of these variations as well as future changes in the Caspian water budget are still a matter of deb...
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crwiley:10.1002/joc.6362 2024-09-15T18:21:36+00:00 Past and future impact of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation in the Caspian Sea catchment area Nandini‐Weiss, Sri D. Prange, Matthias Arpe, Klaus Merkel, Ute Schulz, Michael H2020 Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions 2019 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.6362 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.6362 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/joc.6362 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.6362 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ International Journal of Climatology volume 40, issue 5, page 2717-2731 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 journal-article 2019 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6362 2024-09-05T05:07:03Z Abstract The Caspian Sea level (CSL) has undergone variations of more than 3 m during the past century with important implications for the life of coastal people, economy and the ecosystem. The origin of these variations as well as future changes in the Caspian water budget are still a matter of debate. Here, the major modes of North Atlantic winter climate variability and atmospheric teleconnections that have a potential effect on the hydroclimate of the Caspian catchment region are examined. The skill of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1.2.2) regarding the simulation of the modern climatology in the Caspian region and the major North Atlantic modes are analysed using different atmospheric grid resolutions and setups of the atmospheric component, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4 and CAM5). CESM1.2.2 with CAM5 atmosphere physics and 1° atmospheric grid resolution shows reasonable skill in simulating the regional Caspian basin climatology and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Using this model version, a weakly positive ( r = .2) statistically significant ( p < .05) correlation between the catchment winter water budget (precipitation minus evaporation, P‐E, integrated over the catchment area) and the NAO is found for the historical period 1850–2000. Climate projections of the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 show that the NAO remains the leading mode of winter variability with a dominant influence on the climate in the Caspian catchment region. Under the RCP4.5 scenario the correlation between the winter NAO and winter P‐E over the Caspian catchment region increases ( r = .5, p < .05). For RCP8.5, however, this correlation disappears due to a north–south dipole pattern with a positive P‐E anomaly over the northern and a negative anomaly over the southern parts of the Caspian catchment region, cancelling out an effect on the total Caspian water budget. Nevertheless, due to increasing annual evaporation over the Caspian Sea in the warming ... Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Wiley Online Library International Journal of Climatology 40 5 2717 2731 |
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Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
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English |
description |
Abstract The Caspian Sea level (CSL) has undergone variations of more than 3 m during the past century with important implications for the life of coastal people, economy and the ecosystem. The origin of these variations as well as future changes in the Caspian water budget are still a matter of debate. Here, the major modes of North Atlantic winter climate variability and atmospheric teleconnections that have a potential effect on the hydroclimate of the Caspian catchment region are examined. The skill of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1.2.2) regarding the simulation of the modern climatology in the Caspian region and the major North Atlantic modes are analysed using different atmospheric grid resolutions and setups of the atmospheric component, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4 and CAM5). CESM1.2.2 with CAM5 atmosphere physics and 1° atmospheric grid resolution shows reasonable skill in simulating the regional Caspian basin climatology and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Using this model version, a weakly positive ( r = .2) statistically significant ( p < .05) correlation between the catchment winter water budget (precipitation minus evaporation, P‐E, integrated over the catchment area) and the NAO is found for the historical period 1850–2000. Climate projections of the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 show that the NAO remains the leading mode of winter variability with a dominant influence on the climate in the Caspian catchment region. Under the RCP4.5 scenario the correlation between the winter NAO and winter P‐E over the Caspian catchment region increases ( r = .5, p < .05). For RCP8.5, however, this correlation disappears due to a north–south dipole pattern with a positive P‐E anomaly over the northern and a negative anomaly over the southern parts of the Caspian catchment region, cancelling out an effect on the total Caspian water budget. Nevertheless, due to increasing annual evaporation over the Caspian Sea in the warming ... |
author2 |
H2020 Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Nandini‐Weiss, Sri D. Prange, Matthias Arpe, Klaus Merkel, Ute Schulz, Michael |
spellingShingle |
Nandini‐Weiss, Sri D. Prange, Matthias Arpe, Klaus Merkel, Ute Schulz, Michael Past and future impact of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation in the Caspian Sea catchment area |
author_facet |
Nandini‐Weiss, Sri D. Prange, Matthias Arpe, Klaus Merkel, Ute Schulz, Michael |
author_sort |
Nandini‐Weiss, Sri D. |
title |
Past and future impact of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation in the Caspian Sea catchment area |
title_short |
Past and future impact of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation in the Caspian Sea catchment area |
title_full |
Past and future impact of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation in the Caspian Sea catchment area |
title_fullStr |
Past and future impact of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation in the Caspian Sea catchment area |
title_full_unstemmed |
Past and future impact of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation in the Caspian Sea catchment area |
title_sort |
past and future impact of the winter north atlantic oscillation in the caspian sea catchment area |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.6362 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.6362 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/joc.6362 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.6362 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
International Journal of Climatology volume 40, issue 5, page 2717-2731 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6362 |
container_title |
International Journal of Climatology |
container_volume |
40 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
2717 |
op_container_end_page |
2731 |
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1810460251046019072 |