Performance of statistical downscaling models in GCM validation and regional climate change estimates: application for Swedish precipitation
Abstract This study deals with an analysis of the performance of a general circulation model (GCM) (HadCM2) in reproducing the large‐scale circulation mechanisms controlling Swedish precipitation variability, and in estimating regional climate changes owing to increased CO 2 concentration by using c...
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crwiley:10.1002/joc.624 2024-06-23T07:55:16+00:00 Performance of statistical downscaling models in GCM validation and regional climate change estimates: application for Swedish precipitation Busuioc, Aristita Chen, Deliang Hellström, Cecilia NFR 2001 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.624 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fjoc.624 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.624 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor International Journal of Climatology volume 21, issue 5, page 557-578 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 journal-article 2001 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.624 2024-05-31T08:10:50Z Abstract This study deals with an analysis of the performance of a general circulation model (GCM) (HadCM2) in reproducing the large‐scale circulation mechanisms controlling Swedish precipitation variability, and in estimating regional climate changes owing to increased CO 2 concentration by using canonical correlation analysis (CCA). Seasonal precipitation amounts at 33 stations in Sweden over the period 1899–1990 are used. The large‐scale circulation is represented by sea level pressure (SLP) over the Atlantic–European region. The link between seasonal Swedish precipitation and large‐scale SLP variability is strong in all seasons, but especially in winter and autumn. For these two seasons, the link is a consequence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern. In winter, another important mechanism is related to a cyclonic/anticyclonic structure centred over southern Scandinavia. In the past century, this connection has remained almost unchanged in time for all seasons except spring. The downscaling model that is built on the basis of this link is skilful in all seasons, but especially so in winter and autumn. This observed link is only partially reproduced by the HadCM2 model, while large‐scale SLP variability is fairly well reproduced in all seasons. A concept about optimum statistical downscaling models for climate change purposes is proposed. The idea is related to the capability of the statistical downscaling model to reproduce low frequency variability, rather than having the highest skill in terms of explained variance. By using these downscaling models, it was found that grid point and downscaled climate signals are similar (increasing precipitation) in summer and autumn, while in winter, the amplitudes of the two signals are different. In spring, both signals show a slight increase in the northern and southern parts of Sweden. Copyright © 2001 Royal Meteorological Society Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Wiley Online Library International Journal of Climatology 21 5 557 578 |
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English |
description |
Abstract This study deals with an analysis of the performance of a general circulation model (GCM) (HadCM2) in reproducing the large‐scale circulation mechanisms controlling Swedish precipitation variability, and in estimating regional climate changes owing to increased CO 2 concentration by using canonical correlation analysis (CCA). Seasonal precipitation amounts at 33 stations in Sweden over the period 1899–1990 are used. The large‐scale circulation is represented by sea level pressure (SLP) over the Atlantic–European region. The link between seasonal Swedish precipitation and large‐scale SLP variability is strong in all seasons, but especially in winter and autumn. For these two seasons, the link is a consequence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern. In winter, another important mechanism is related to a cyclonic/anticyclonic structure centred over southern Scandinavia. In the past century, this connection has remained almost unchanged in time for all seasons except spring. The downscaling model that is built on the basis of this link is skilful in all seasons, but especially so in winter and autumn. This observed link is only partially reproduced by the HadCM2 model, while large‐scale SLP variability is fairly well reproduced in all seasons. A concept about optimum statistical downscaling models for climate change purposes is proposed. The idea is related to the capability of the statistical downscaling model to reproduce low frequency variability, rather than having the highest skill in terms of explained variance. By using these downscaling models, it was found that grid point and downscaled climate signals are similar (increasing precipitation) in summer and autumn, while in winter, the amplitudes of the two signals are different. In spring, both signals show a slight increase in the northern and southern parts of Sweden. Copyright © 2001 Royal Meteorological Society |
author2 |
NFR |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Busuioc, Aristita Chen, Deliang Hellström, Cecilia |
spellingShingle |
Busuioc, Aristita Chen, Deliang Hellström, Cecilia Performance of statistical downscaling models in GCM validation and regional climate change estimates: application for Swedish precipitation |
author_facet |
Busuioc, Aristita Chen, Deliang Hellström, Cecilia |
author_sort |
Busuioc, Aristita |
title |
Performance of statistical downscaling models in GCM validation and regional climate change estimates: application for Swedish precipitation |
title_short |
Performance of statistical downscaling models in GCM validation and regional climate change estimates: application for Swedish precipitation |
title_full |
Performance of statistical downscaling models in GCM validation and regional climate change estimates: application for Swedish precipitation |
title_fullStr |
Performance of statistical downscaling models in GCM validation and regional climate change estimates: application for Swedish precipitation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Performance of statistical downscaling models in GCM validation and regional climate change estimates: application for Swedish precipitation |
title_sort |
performance of statistical downscaling models in gcm validation and regional climate change estimates: application for swedish precipitation |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2001 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.624 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fjoc.624 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.624 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
International Journal of Climatology volume 21, issue 5, page 557-578 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.624 |
container_title |
International Journal of Climatology |
container_volume |
21 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
557 |
op_container_end_page |
578 |
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1802647792947036160 |