Role of autumn Arctic Sea ice in the subsequent summer precipitation variability over East Asia
Abstract This study explored the interannual relationship between autumn Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) and the subsequent summer precipitation over East Asia (EASP). Since the late‐1990s, the declining SIC in the Kara–Laptev Seas has been significantly correlated with EASP as well as extremely...
Published in: | International Journal of Climatology |
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.6232 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fjoc.6232 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.6232 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/joc.6232 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.6232 |
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crwiley:10.1002/joc.6232 2024-10-13T14:05:15+00:00 Role of autumn Arctic Sea ice in the subsequent summer precipitation variability over East Asia Liu, Yang Zhu, Yali Wang, Huijun Gao, Yongqi Sun, Jianqi Wang, Tao Ma, Jiehua Yurova, Alla Li, Fei National Key Research and Development Program of China National Natural Science Foundation of China 2019 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.6232 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fjoc.6232 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.6232 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/joc.6232 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.6232 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ International Journal of Climatology volume 40, issue 2, page 706-722 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 journal-article 2019 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6232 2024-09-23T04:36:40Z Abstract This study explored the interannual relationship between autumn Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) and the subsequent summer precipitation over East Asia (EASP). Since the late‐1990s, the declining SIC in the Kara–Laptev Seas has been significantly correlated with EASP as well as extremely positive anomalies in northern China and intensely negative anomalies in central‐eastern East Asia. However, there was a weak correlation between autumn SIC and EASP before the late‐1990s. Furthermore, the anomalous precipitation pattern in summer and its connection with autumn SIC variability can be explained by the seasonal persistence of continental processes (snow depth and soil moisture) into the spring. In particular, a decreasing SIC was connected with simultaneously positive and negative precipitation anomalies over northeastern China and the Siberian region, respectively, since the late‐1990s and tends to produce corresponding soil moisture anomalies over the Eurasian continent. Declining SIC also favours increased snow depth anomalies in winter over northeastern East Asia. These anomalous signals of surface processes can persist from winter into the subsequent spring, making the connection between the autumn SIC and EASP possible. The Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble simulations further verified these physical processes. More detailed mechanism for this relationship needs to be stressed in further work by numerical simulations. The results have important implications for extending the seasonal prediction validity of EASP. Moreover, before the late‐1990s, SIC‐related circulation anomalies shifted westward and northward as negative precipitation anomalies developed over west Siberia in autumn. As a result, anomalous dry soil conditions in Siberia persisted into the subsequent spring and then led to wetter‐than‐normal conditions through locally negative soil moisture–precipitation feedback before the late‐1990s. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Kara-Laptev laptev Sea ice Siberia Wiley Online Library Arctic International Journal of Climatology 40 2 706 722 |
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Open Polar |
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Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract This study explored the interannual relationship between autumn Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) and the subsequent summer precipitation over East Asia (EASP). Since the late‐1990s, the declining SIC in the Kara–Laptev Seas has been significantly correlated with EASP as well as extremely positive anomalies in northern China and intensely negative anomalies in central‐eastern East Asia. However, there was a weak correlation between autumn SIC and EASP before the late‐1990s. Furthermore, the anomalous precipitation pattern in summer and its connection with autumn SIC variability can be explained by the seasonal persistence of continental processes (snow depth and soil moisture) into the spring. In particular, a decreasing SIC was connected with simultaneously positive and negative precipitation anomalies over northeastern China and the Siberian region, respectively, since the late‐1990s and tends to produce corresponding soil moisture anomalies over the Eurasian continent. Declining SIC also favours increased snow depth anomalies in winter over northeastern East Asia. These anomalous signals of surface processes can persist from winter into the subsequent spring, making the connection between the autumn SIC and EASP possible. The Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble simulations further verified these physical processes. More detailed mechanism for this relationship needs to be stressed in further work by numerical simulations. The results have important implications for extending the seasonal prediction validity of EASP. Moreover, before the late‐1990s, SIC‐related circulation anomalies shifted westward and northward as negative precipitation anomalies developed over west Siberia in autumn. As a result, anomalous dry soil conditions in Siberia persisted into the subsequent spring and then led to wetter‐than‐normal conditions through locally negative soil moisture–precipitation feedback before the late‐1990s. |
author2 |
National Key Research and Development Program of China National Natural Science Foundation of China |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Liu, Yang Zhu, Yali Wang, Huijun Gao, Yongqi Sun, Jianqi Wang, Tao Ma, Jiehua Yurova, Alla Li, Fei |
spellingShingle |
Liu, Yang Zhu, Yali Wang, Huijun Gao, Yongqi Sun, Jianqi Wang, Tao Ma, Jiehua Yurova, Alla Li, Fei Role of autumn Arctic Sea ice in the subsequent summer precipitation variability over East Asia |
author_facet |
Liu, Yang Zhu, Yali Wang, Huijun Gao, Yongqi Sun, Jianqi Wang, Tao Ma, Jiehua Yurova, Alla Li, Fei |
author_sort |
Liu, Yang |
title |
Role of autumn Arctic Sea ice in the subsequent summer precipitation variability over East Asia |
title_short |
Role of autumn Arctic Sea ice in the subsequent summer precipitation variability over East Asia |
title_full |
Role of autumn Arctic Sea ice in the subsequent summer precipitation variability over East Asia |
title_fullStr |
Role of autumn Arctic Sea ice in the subsequent summer precipitation variability over East Asia |
title_full_unstemmed |
Role of autumn Arctic Sea ice in the subsequent summer precipitation variability over East Asia |
title_sort |
role of autumn arctic sea ice in the subsequent summer precipitation variability over east asia |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.6232 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fjoc.6232 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.6232 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/joc.6232 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.6232 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Kara-Laptev laptev Sea ice Siberia |
genre_facet |
Arctic Kara-Laptev laptev Sea ice Siberia |
op_source |
International Journal of Climatology volume 40, issue 2, page 706-722 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6232 |
container_title |
International Journal of Climatology |
container_volume |
40 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
706 |
op_container_end_page |
722 |
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1812811310736343040 |