Effects of the tropospheric large‐scale circulation on European winter temperatures during the period of amplified Arctic warming
Abstract We investigate factors influencing European winter (DJFM) air temperatures for the period 1979–2015 with the focus on changes during the recent period of rapid Arctic warming (1998–2015). We employ meteorological reanalyses analysed with a combination of correlation analysis, two pattern cl...
Published in: | International Journal of Climatology |
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.6225 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.6225 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/joc.6225 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.6225 |
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crwiley:10.1002/joc.6225 2024-04-28T08:06:41+00:00 Effects of the tropospheric large‐scale circulation on European winter temperatures during the period of amplified Arctic warming Vihma, Timo Graversen, Rune Chen, Linling Handorf, Dörthe Skific, Natasa Francis, Jennifer A. Tyrrell, Nicholas Hall, Richard Hanna, Edward Uotila, Petteri Dethloff, Klaus Karpechko, Alexey Y. Björnsson, Halldor Overland, James E. Climate Program Office Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft H2020 Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions Luonnontieteiden ja Tekniikan Tutkimuksen Toimikunta National Science Foundation Norges Forskningsråd 2019 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.6225 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.6225 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/joc.6225 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.6225 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ International Journal of Climatology volume 40, issue 1, page 509-529 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 Atmospheric Science journal-article 2019 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6225 2024-04-02T08:42:22Z Abstract We investigate factors influencing European winter (DJFM) air temperatures for the period 1979–2015 with the focus on changes during the recent period of rapid Arctic warming (1998–2015). We employ meteorological reanalyses analysed with a combination of correlation analysis, two pattern clustering techniques, and back‐trajectory airmass identification. In all five selected European regions, severe cold winter events lasting at least 4 days are significantly correlated with warm Arctic episodes. Relationships during opposite conditions of warm Europe/cold Arctic are also significant. Correlations have become consistently stronger since 1998. Large‐scale pattern analysis reveals that cold spells are associated with the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO‐) and the positive phase of the Scandinavian (SCA+) pattern, which in turn are correlated with the divergence of dry‐static energy transport. Warm European extremes are associated with opposite phases of these patterns and the convergence of latent heat transport. Airmass trajectory analysis is consistent with these findings, as airmasses associated with extreme cold events typically originate over continents, while warm events tend to occur with prevailing maritime airmasses. Despite Arctic‐wide warming, significant cooling has occurred in northeastern Europe owing to a decrease in adiabatic subsidence heating in airmasses arriving from the southeast, along with increased occurrence of circulation patterns favouring low temperature advection. These dynamic effects dominated over the increased mean temperature of most circulation patterns. Lagged correlation analysis reveals that SCA‐ and NAO+ are typically preceded by cold Arctic anomalies during the previous 2–3 months, which may aid seasonal forecasting. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Wiley Online Library International Journal of Climatology 40 1 509 529 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Wiley Online Library |
op_collection_id |
crwiley |
language |
English |
topic |
Atmospheric Science |
spellingShingle |
Atmospheric Science Vihma, Timo Graversen, Rune Chen, Linling Handorf, Dörthe Skific, Natasa Francis, Jennifer A. Tyrrell, Nicholas Hall, Richard Hanna, Edward Uotila, Petteri Dethloff, Klaus Karpechko, Alexey Y. Björnsson, Halldor Overland, James E. Effects of the tropospheric large‐scale circulation on European winter temperatures during the period of amplified Arctic warming |
topic_facet |
Atmospheric Science |
description |
Abstract We investigate factors influencing European winter (DJFM) air temperatures for the period 1979–2015 with the focus on changes during the recent period of rapid Arctic warming (1998–2015). We employ meteorological reanalyses analysed with a combination of correlation analysis, two pattern clustering techniques, and back‐trajectory airmass identification. In all five selected European regions, severe cold winter events lasting at least 4 days are significantly correlated with warm Arctic episodes. Relationships during opposite conditions of warm Europe/cold Arctic are also significant. Correlations have become consistently stronger since 1998. Large‐scale pattern analysis reveals that cold spells are associated with the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO‐) and the positive phase of the Scandinavian (SCA+) pattern, which in turn are correlated with the divergence of dry‐static energy transport. Warm European extremes are associated with opposite phases of these patterns and the convergence of latent heat transport. Airmass trajectory analysis is consistent with these findings, as airmasses associated with extreme cold events typically originate over continents, while warm events tend to occur with prevailing maritime airmasses. Despite Arctic‐wide warming, significant cooling has occurred in northeastern Europe owing to a decrease in adiabatic subsidence heating in airmasses arriving from the southeast, along with increased occurrence of circulation patterns favouring low temperature advection. These dynamic effects dominated over the increased mean temperature of most circulation patterns. Lagged correlation analysis reveals that SCA‐ and NAO+ are typically preceded by cold Arctic anomalies during the previous 2–3 months, which may aid seasonal forecasting. |
author2 |
Climate Program Office Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft H2020 Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions Luonnontieteiden ja Tekniikan Tutkimuksen Toimikunta National Science Foundation Norges Forskningsråd |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Vihma, Timo Graversen, Rune Chen, Linling Handorf, Dörthe Skific, Natasa Francis, Jennifer A. Tyrrell, Nicholas Hall, Richard Hanna, Edward Uotila, Petteri Dethloff, Klaus Karpechko, Alexey Y. Björnsson, Halldor Overland, James E. |
author_facet |
Vihma, Timo Graversen, Rune Chen, Linling Handorf, Dörthe Skific, Natasa Francis, Jennifer A. Tyrrell, Nicholas Hall, Richard Hanna, Edward Uotila, Petteri Dethloff, Klaus Karpechko, Alexey Y. Björnsson, Halldor Overland, James E. |
author_sort |
Vihma, Timo |
title |
Effects of the tropospheric large‐scale circulation on European winter temperatures during the period of amplified Arctic warming |
title_short |
Effects of the tropospheric large‐scale circulation on European winter temperatures during the period of amplified Arctic warming |
title_full |
Effects of the tropospheric large‐scale circulation on European winter temperatures during the period of amplified Arctic warming |
title_fullStr |
Effects of the tropospheric large‐scale circulation on European winter temperatures during the period of amplified Arctic warming |
title_full_unstemmed |
Effects of the tropospheric large‐scale circulation on European winter temperatures during the period of amplified Arctic warming |
title_sort |
effects of the tropospheric large‐scale circulation on european winter temperatures during the period of amplified arctic warming |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.6225 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.6225 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/joc.6225 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.6225 |
genre |
Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
International Journal of Climatology volume 40, issue 1, page 509-529 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6225 |
container_title |
International Journal of Climatology |
container_volume |
40 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
509 |
op_container_end_page |
529 |
_version_ |
1797576079884419072 |