Towards normal Siberian winter temperatures?

• Published in: International Journal of Climatology
• Main Authors: Koenigk, Torben, Fuentes‐Franco, Ramon
• Other Authors: NordForsk, Svenska Forskningsrådet Formas
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Wiley 2019
• Subjects: Atmospheric Science; Arctic; Barents Sea; Global warming; North Atlantic; North Atlantic oscillation; Sea ice; Siberia
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.6099; https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.6099; https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/joc.6099; https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.6099

Abstract Siberia is a region where despite global warming a winter cooling trend has been observed over last decades. This cooling trend and its potential linkage to Arctic sea ice loss are controversially discussed. However, recent winters have not been taken into account so far. Here, we analyse ERA‐Interim reanalysis data until 2017 and ERA20C reanalysis to investigate the robustness of the winter surface air temperature trends to updated and extended time periods. Our results show that winter temperatures in Siberia were above normal after 2013 leading to strongly reduced cooling trends since 1980. The trend before 2014 was dominated by four cold winters between 2010 and 2013. These cold winters were mainly caused by strong negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), except for the winter 2011/2012, where the NAO was positive and a strongly negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in combination with low sea ice in the Barents Sea caused the cold winter. Both NAO and PDO shift from more negative to positive phases in 2014 and contribute to a return to warmer Siberian temperatures. Furthermore, the NAO shows no trend between 1980 and 2017 indicating that the suggested linkage between Arctic sea ice loss and a negative trend in this mode is not robust. However, continuously low Arctic sea ice in recent years and a slightly negative trend in the PDO since 1980 contribute to the remaining observed cold trends over parts of Eurasia between 1980 and 2017.