Towards normal Siberian winter temperatures?
Abstract Siberia is a region where despite global warming a winter cooling trend has been observed over last decades. This cooling trend and its potential linkage to Arctic sea ice loss are controversially discussed. However, recent winters have not been taken into account so far. Here, we analyse E...
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crwiley:10.1002/joc.6099 2024-04-28T08:08:27+00:00 Towards normal Siberian winter temperatures? Koenigk, Torben Fuentes‐Franco, Ramon NordForsk Svenska Forskningsrådet Formas 2019 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.6099 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.6099 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/joc.6099 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.6099 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ International Journal of Climatology volume 39, issue 11, page 4567-4574 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 Atmospheric Science journal-article 2019 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6099 2024-04-05T07:37:45Z Abstract Siberia is a region where despite global warming a winter cooling trend has been observed over last decades. This cooling trend and its potential linkage to Arctic sea ice loss are controversially discussed. However, recent winters have not been taken into account so far. Here, we analyse ERA‐Interim reanalysis data until 2017 and ERA20C reanalysis to investigate the robustness of the winter surface air temperature trends to updated and extended time periods. Our results show that winter temperatures in Siberia were above normal after 2013 leading to strongly reduced cooling trends since 1980. The trend before 2014 was dominated by four cold winters between 2010 and 2013. These cold winters were mainly caused by strong negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), except for the winter 2011/2012, where the NAO was positive and a strongly negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in combination with low sea ice in the Barents Sea caused the cold winter. Both NAO and PDO shift from more negative to positive phases in 2014 and contribute to a return to warmer Siberian temperatures. Furthermore, the NAO shows no trend between 1980 and 2017 indicating that the suggested linkage between Arctic sea ice loss and a negative trend in this mode is not robust. However, continuously low Arctic sea ice in recent years and a slightly negative trend in the PDO since 1980 contribute to the remaining observed cold trends over parts of Eurasia between 1980 and 2017. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Barents Sea Global warming North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice Siberia Wiley Online Library International Journal of Climatology 39 11 4567 4574 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
language |
English |
topic |
Atmospheric Science |
spellingShingle |
Atmospheric Science Koenigk, Torben Fuentes‐Franco, Ramon Towards normal Siberian winter temperatures? |
topic_facet |
Atmospheric Science |
description |
Abstract Siberia is a region where despite global warming a winter cooling trend has been observed over last decades. This cooling trend and its potential linkage to Arctic sea ice loss are controversially discussed. However, recent winters have not been taken into account so far. Here, we analyse ERA‐Interim reanalysis data until 2017 and ERA20C reanalysis to investigate the robustness of the winter surface air temperature trends to updated and extended time periods. Our results show that winter temperatures in Siberia were above normal after 2013 leading to strongly reduced cooling trends since 1980. The trend before 2014 was dominated by four cold winters between 2010 and 2013. These cold winters were mainly caused by strong negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), except for the winter 2011/2012, where the NAO was positive and a strongly negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in combination with low sea ice in the Barents Sea caused the cold winter. Both NAO and PDO shift from more negative to positive phases in 2014 and contribute to a return to warmer Siberian temperatures. Furthermore, the NAO shows no trend between 1980 and 2017 indicating that the suggested linkage between Arctic sea ice loss and a negative trend in this mode is not robust. However, continuously low Arctic sea ice in recent years and a slightly negative trend in the PDO since 1980 contribute to the remaining observed cold trends over parts of Eurasia between 1980 and 2017. |
author2 |
NordForsk Svenska Forskningsrådet Formas |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Koenigk, Torben Fuentes‐Franco, Ramon |
author_facet |
Koenigk, Torben Fuentes‐Franco, Ramon |
author_sort |
Koenigk, Torben |
title |
Towards normal Siberian winter temperatures? |
title_short |
Towards normal Siberian winter temperatures? |
title_full |
Towards normal Siberian winter temperatures? |
title_fullStr |
Towards normal Siberian winter temperatures? |
title_full_unstemmed |
Towards normal Siberian winter temperatures? |
title_sort |
towards normal siberian winter temperatures? |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.6099 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.6099 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/joc.6099 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.6099 |
genre |
Arctic Barents Sea Global warming North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice Siberia |
genre_facet |
Arctic Barents Sea Global warming North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice Siberia |
op_source |
International Journal of Climatology volume 39, issue 11, page 4567-4574 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6099 |
container_title |
International Journal of Climatology |
container_volume |
39 |
container_issue |
11 |
container_start_page |
4567 |
op_container_end_page |
4574 |
_version_ |
1797577241029246976 |