The cause of warming over Norway in the ECHAM4/OPYC3 GHG integration

• Published in: International Journal of Climatology
• Main Author: Benestad, Rasmus E.
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Wiley 2001
• Subjects: Norway; North Atlantic; North Atlantic oscillation
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.603; https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fjoc.603; https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.603

Abstract The cause of warming over Norway in a future global climate model (GCM) scenario is examined. Analysis of historical observations indicate that the observed long‐term temperature trends are not a result of systematic shifts in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The GCM prediction of past and future warming cannot be explained in terms of changes to the large‐scale atmospheric flow. The climate model results may suggest that the model has a seasonal bias with respect to the time of the year when the fastest warming occurs. The NAO is associated with the warming after 1970, even though the 1860–1997 temperature trends do not appear to be connected with the NAO. An accurate description of the NAO is, therefore, critical for forecasting short‐term variability in the Norwegian winter climate and the results obtained here suggest that the model description of the NAO is generally good. Copyright © 2001 Royal Meteorological Society.