Improved seasonal prediction of UK regional precipitation using atmospheric circulation
ABSTRACT The aim of this study is to further our understanding of whether skilful seasonal forecasts of the large‐scale atmospheric circulation can be downscaled to provide skilful seasonal forecasts of regional precipitation. A simple multiple linear regression model is developed to describe winter...
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crwiley:10.1002/joc.5382 2024-06-02T08:11:27+00:00 Improved seasonal prediction of UK regional precipitation using atmospheric circulation Baker, L. H. Shaffrey, L. C. Scaife, A. A. Natural Environment Research Council 2017 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.5382 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fjoc.5382 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.5382 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor International Journal of Climatology volume 38, issue S1 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 journal-article 2017 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5382 2024-05-03T10:49:42Z ABSTRACT The aim of this study is to further our understanding of whether skilful seasonal forecasts of the large‐scale atmospheric circulation can be downscaled to provide skilful seasonal forecasts of regional precipitation. A simple multiple linear regression model is developed to describe winter precipitation variability in nine UK regions. The model for each region is a linear combination of two mean sea‐level pressure (MSLP)‐based indices which are derived from the MSLP correlation patterns for precipitation in northwest Scotland and southeast England. The first index is a pressure dipole, similar to the North Atlantic Oscillation but shifted to the east; the second index is the MSLP anomaly centred over the UK. The multiple linear regression model describes up to 76% of the observed precipitation variability in each region and gives higher correlations with precipitation than using either of the two indices alone. The Met Office's seasonal forecast system (GloSea5) is found to have significant skill in forecasting the two MSLP indices for the winter season, in forecasts initialized around the start of November. Applying the multiple linear regression model to the GloSea5 hindcasts is shown to give improved skill over the precipitation forecast by the GloSea5, with the largest improvement in Scotland. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Wiley Online Library International Journal of Climatology 38 S1 |
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Wiley Online Library |
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English |
description |
ABSTRACT The aim of this study is to further our understanding of whether skilful seasonal forecasts of the large‐scale atmospheric circulation can be downscaled to provide skilful seasonal forecasts of regional precipitation. A simple multiple linear regression model is developed to describe winter precipitation variability in nine UK regions. The model for each region is a linear combination of two mean sea‐level pressure (MSLP)‐based indices which are derived from the MSLP correlation patterns for precipitation in northwest Scotland and southeast England. The first index is a pressure dipole, similar to the North Atlantic Oscillation but shifted to the east; the second index is the MSLP anomaly centred over the UK. The multiple linear regression model describes up to 76% of the observed precipitation variability in each region and gives higher correlations with precipitation than using either of the two indices alone. The Met Office's seasonal forecast system (GloSea5) is found to have significant skill in forecasting the two MSLP indices for the winter season, in forecasts initialized around the start of November. Applying the multiple linear regression model to the GloSea5 hindcasts is shown to give improved skill over the precipitation forecast by the GloSea5, with the largest improvement in Scotland. |
author2 |
Natural Environment Research Council |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Baker, L. H. Shaffrey, L. C. Scaife, A. A. |
spellingShingle |
Baker, L. H. Shaffrey, L. C. Scaife, A. A. Improved seasonal prediction of UK regional precipitation using atmospheric circulation |
author_facet |
Baker, L. H. Shaffrey, L. C. Scaife, A. A. |
author_sort |
Baker, L. H. |
title |
Improved seasonal prediction of UK regional precipitation using atmospheric circulation |
title_short |
Improved seasonal prediction of UK regional precipitation using atmospheric circulation |
title_full |
Improved seasonal prediction of UK regional precipitation using atmospheric circulation |
title_fullStr |
Improved seasonal prediction of UK regional precipitation using atmospheric circulation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Improved seasonal prediction of UK regional precipitation using atmospheric circulation |
title_sort |
improved seasonal prediction of uk regional precipitation using atmospheric circulation |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.5382 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fjoc.5382 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.5382 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
International Journal of Climatology volume 38, issue S1 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5382 |
container_title |
International Journal of Climatology |
container_volume |
38 |
container_issue |
S1 |
_version_ |
1800757604593434624 |