Evaluation and projection of extreme precipitation indices in the Eastern Mediterranean based on CMIP5 multi‐model ensemble
ABSTRACT An evaluation of 23 models, participating in the Coupled Model Inter‐comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), in representing extreme precipitation indices (EPI), over the Eastern Mediterranean (EM) and the Fertile Crescent (FC), was performed. The models ensemble was then used to predict the EP...
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crwiley:10.1002/joc.5334 2024-09-30T14:39:45+00:00 Evaluation and projection of extreme precipitation indices in the Eastern Mediterranean based on CMIP5 multi‐model ensemble Samuels, Rana Hochman, Assaf Baharad, Anat Givati, Amir Levi, Yoav Yosef, Yizhak Saaroni, Hadas Ziv, Baruch Harpaz, Tzvika Alpert, Pinhas Porter School of Environmental Studies at Tel-Aviv University German Helmholtz Association Mintz foundation Tel-Aviv University Ministry of Science and Technology of Israel 2017 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.5334 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fjoc.5334 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.5334 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor International Journal of Climatology volume 38, issue 5, page 2280-2297 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 journal-article 2017 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5334 2024-09-03T04:26:05Z ABSTRACT An evaluation of 23 models, participating in the Coupled Model Inter‐comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), in representing extreme precipitation indices (EPI), over the Eastern Mediterranean (EM) and the Fertile Crescent (FC), was performed. The models ensemble was then used to predict the EPIs evolution in the 21st century under (Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Models' performance was determined with respect to gridded precipitation observations from the APHRODITE project. The ensemble mean was found to perform relatively well in capturing the EM steep precipitation gradient, the FC structure and the EPI trends in the observations period (1970–2000). Over the EM, CMIP5 models agree on a future decrease in the following three EPIs; total precipitation (TP), consecutive wet days, and number of wet days by the values of 20–35%, 10–20%, and 20–35%, respectively. In the FC, extremely wet days (P95) are expected to increase by approximately 25%, except for the south eastern coasts of the Mediterranean Sea, which show significant decreases in P95, particularly for RCP8.5 and at the end of the 21st century. Hence, while TP is expected to decrease, extreme precipitation is expected to increase, at least for the north‐eastern part of the FC. This will significantly influence agriculture and floods' potential in a region already suffering from political unrest. The changes in EPIs are related to changes in the synoptic patterns over the EM, especially the predicted changes in cyclones frequency and intensity in the 21st century, due to changes in storm tracks governed by the phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the expected expansion of the Hadley Cell towards the poles in a warmer climate. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Wiley Online Library Aphrodite ENVELOPE(-64.533,-64.533,-68.900,-68.900) International Journal of Climatology 38 5 2280 2297 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
language |
English |
description |
ABSTRACT An evaluation of 23 models, participating in the Coupled Model Inter‐comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), in representing extreme precipitation indices (EPI), over the Eastern Mediterranean (EM) and the Fertile Crescent (FC), was performed. The models ensemble was then used to predict the EPIs evolution in the 21st century under (Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Models' performance was determined with respect to gridded precipitation observations from the APHRODITE project. The ensemble mean was found to perform relatively well in capturing the EM steep precipitation gradient, the FC structure and the EPI trends in the observations period (1970–2000). Over the EM, CMIP5 models agree on a future decrease in the following three EPIs; total precipitation (TP), consecutive wet days, and number of wet days by the values of 20–35%, 10–20%, and 20–35%, respectively. In the FC, extremely wet days (P95) are expected to increase by approximately 25%, except for the south eastern coasts of the Mediterranean Sea, which show significant decreases in P95, particularly for RCP8.5 and at the end of the 21st century. Hence, while TP is expected to decrease, extreme precipitation is expected to increase, at least for the north‐eastern part of the FC. This will significantly influence agriculture and floods' potential in a region already suffering from political unrest. The changes in EPIs are related to changes in the synoptic patterns over the EM, especially the predicted changes in cyclones frequency and intensity in the 21st century, due to changes in storm tracks governed by the phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the expected expansion of the Hadley Cell towards the poles in a warmer climate. |
author2 |
Porter School of Environmental Studies at Tel-Aviv University German Helmholtz Association Mintz foundation Tel-Aviv University Ministry of Science and Technology of Israel |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Samuels, Rana Hochman, Assaf Baharad, Anat Givati, Amir Levi, Yoav Yosef, Yizhak Saaroni, Hadas Ziv, Baruch Harpaz, Tzvika Alpert, Pinhas |
spellingShingle |
Samuels, Rana Hochman, Assaf Baharad, Anat Givati, Amir Levi, Yoav Yosef, Yizhak Saaroni, Hadas Ziv, Baruch Harpaz, Tzvika Alpert, Pinhas Evaluation and projection of extreme precipitation indices in the Eastern Mediterranean based on CMIP5 multi‐model ensemble |
author_facet |
Samuels, Rana Hochman, Assaf Baharad, Anat Givati, Amir Levi, Yoav Yosef, Yizhak Saaroni, Hadas Ziv, Baruch Harpaz, Tzvika Alpert, Pinhas |
author_sort |
Samuels, Rana |
title |
Evaluation and projection of extreme precipitation indices in the Eastern Mediterranean based on CMIP5 multi‐model ensemble |
title_short |
Evaluation and projection of extreme precipitation indices in the Eastern Mediterranean based on CMIP5 multi‐model ensemble |
title_full |
Evaluation and projection of extreme precipitation indices in the Eastern Mediterranean based on CMIP5 multi‐model ensemble |
title_fullStr |
Evaluation and projection of extreme precipitation indices in the Eastern Mediterranean based on CMIP5 multi‐model ensemble |
title_full_unstemmed |
Evaluation and projection of extreme precipitation indices in the Eastern Mediterranean based on CMIP5 multi‐model ensemble |
title_sort |
evaluation and projection of extreme precipitation indices in the eastern mediterranean based on cmip5 multi‐model ensemble |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.5334 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fjoc.5334 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.5334 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-64.533,-64.533,-68.900,-68.900) |
geographic |
Aphrodite |
geographic_facet |
Aphrodite |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
International Journal of Climatology volume 38, issue 5, page 2280-2297 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5334 |
container_title |
International Journal of Climatology |
container_volume |
38 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
2280 |
op_container_end_page |
2297 |
_version_ |
1811642353418502144 |