Heat waves in Finland: present and projected summertime extreme temperatures and their associated circulation patterns
ABSTRACT The number and intensity of individual hot days affecting Finland in the current and future climate is investigated together with the circulation patterns associated with the hot days. In addition, the number, length and intensity of heat waves lasting at least 3 days is also considered. ER...
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crwiley:10.1002/joc.5253 2024-09-15T18:25:43+00:00 Heat waves in Finland: present and projected summertime extreme temperatures and their associated circulation patterns Kim, Sol Sinclair, Victoria A. Räisänen, Jouni Ruuhela, Reija Fulbright organization Academy of Finland Finnish Center of Excellence program PLUMES-project (Pathways linking uncertainties in model projections of climate and its effects) funded by Academy of Finland 2017 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.5253 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fjoc.5253 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.5253 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor International Journal of Climatology volume 38, issue 3, page 1393-1408 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 journal-article 2017 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5253 2024-08-27T04:28:34Z ABSTRACT The number and intensity of individual hot days affecting Finland in the current and future climate is investigated together with the circulation patterns associated with the hot days. In addition, the number, length and intensity of heat waves lasting at least 3 days is also considered. ERA‐Interim reanalysis data and both direct model output and bias‐corrected data for historical and future climate [representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario] simulations from 17 global climate models are analysed. Three intensities of heat waves and hot days are defined based on daily mean temperature thresholds of 20, 24 and 28 °C. The percentage of summertime days which exceed these temperature thresholds is shown to increase in the future. In ERA‐Interim, 24% of summertime days in southern Finland exceed the lowest temperature threshold while none exceed the highest temperature threshold. Under the RCP4.5 scenario these values increase to 47 and 1%, respectively. Larger relative changes occur in northern Finland. Heat waves are also longer in the RCP4.5 simulations than in the historical simulations. In southern Finland, the mean length of a heat wave where the 20 °C daily mean temperature is exceeded is 6.1 days in the historical simulations but increases to 9.4 days in the RCP4.5 simulations. The hot days in both northern and southern Finland are associated with a statistically significant positive pressure anomaly over Finland and to the east to Finland and a statistically significant negative pressure anomaly over Russia between 90 and 120°E. These pressure anomalies were evident for all intensities of hot days in the current climate and the future climate. The magnitude of the pressure anomalies increases as the daily mean temperature threshold increases. However, for hot days which exceed the same daily mean temperature threshold, the pressure anomalies are weaker in the RCP4.5 simulations than in the historical or ERA‐Interim data. Article in Journal/Newspaper Northern Finland Wiley Online Library International Journal of Climatology 38 3 1393 1408 |
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Open Polar |
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Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
language |
English |
description |
ABSTRACT The number and intensity of individual hot days affecting Finland in the current and future climate is investigated together with the circulation patterns associated with the hot days. In addition, the number, length and intensity of heat waves lasting at least 3 days is also considered. ERA‐Interim reanalysis data and both direct model output and bias‐corrected data for historical and future climate [representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario] simulations from 17 global climate models are analysed. Three intensities of heat waves and hot days are defined based on daily mean temperature thresholds of 20, 24 and 28 °C. The percentage of summertime days which exceed these temperature thresholds is shown to increase in the future. In ERA‐Interim, 24% of summertime days in southern Finland exceed the lowest temperature threshold while none exceed the highest temperature threshold. Under the RCP4.5 scenario these values increase to 47 and 1%, respectively. Larger relative changes occur in northern Finland. Heat waves are also longer in the RCP4.5 simulations than in the historical simulations. In southern Finland, the mean length of a heat wave where the 20 °C daily mean temperature is exceeded is 6.1 days in the historical simulations but increases to 9.4 days in the RCP4.5 simulations. The hot days in both northern and southern Finland are associated with a statistically significant positive pressure anomaly over Finland and to the east to Finland and a statistically significant negative pressure anomaly over Russia between 90 and 120°E. These pressure anomalies were evident for all intensities of hot days in the current climate and the future climate. The magnitude of the pressure anomalies increases as the daily mean temperature threshold increases. However, for hot days which exceed the same daily mean temperature threshold, the pressure anomalies are weaker in the RCP4.5 simulations than in the historical or ERA‐Interim data. |
author2 |
Fulbright organization Academy of Finland Finnish Center of Excellence program PLUMES-project (Pathways linking uncertainties in model projections of climate and its effects) funded by Academy of Finland |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kim, Sol Sinclair, Victoria A. Räisänen, Jouni Ruuhela, Reija |
spellingShingle |
Kim, Sol Sinclair, Victoria A. Räisänen, Jouni Ruuhela, Reija Heat waves in Finland: present and projected summertime extreme temperatures and their associated circulation patterns |
author_facet |
Kim, Sol Sinclair, Victoria A. Räisänen, Jouni Ruuhela, Reija |
author_sort |
Kim, Sol |
title |
Heat waves in Finland: present and projected summertime extreme temperatures and their associated circulation patterns |
title_short |
Heat waves in Finland: present and projected summertime extreme temperatures and their associated circulation patterns |
title_full |
Heat waves in Finland: present and projected summertime extreme temperatures and their associated circulation patterns |
title_fullStr |
Heat waves in Finland: present and projected summertime extreme temperatures and their associated circulation patterns |
title_full_unstemmed |
Heat waves in Finland: present and projected summertime extreme temperatures and their associated circulation patterns |
title_sort |
heat waves in finland: present and projected summertime extreme temperatures and their associated circulation patterns |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.5253 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fjoc.5253 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.5253 |
genre |
Northern Finland |
genre_facet |
Northern Finland |
op_source |
International Journal of Climatology volume 38, issue 3, page 1393-1408 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5253 |
container_title |
International Journal of Climatology |
container_volume |
38 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
1393 |
op_container_end_page |
1408 |
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1810466209568653312 |