A seasonal prediction for the wet–cold spells leading to winter crop damage in northwestern Taiwan with a combined empirical–dynamical approach
ABSTRACT Winter crop losses from extreme weather in Taiwan have increased in the recent decade, with those losses associated with pronounced wet‐and‐cold events (temperature < 10 °C and precipitation >5 mm day −1 ). The regional and global patterns of atmospheric circulation and the sea surfac...
Published in: | International Journal of Climatology |
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.5194 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fjoc.5194 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.5194 |
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crwiley:10.1002/joc.5194 2024-06-23T07:50:32+00:00 A seasonal prediction for the wet–cold spells leading to winter crop damage in northwestern Taiwan with a combined empirical–dynamical approach Promchote, Parichart Wang, S.‐Y. Simon Shen, Yuan Johnson, Paul G. Yao, Ming‐Hwi Utah Agricultural Experiment Station 2017 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.5194 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fjoc.5194 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.5194 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor International Journal of Climatology volume 38, issue 2, page 571-583 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 journal-article 2017 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5194 2024-06-13T04:21:14Z ABSTRACT Winter crop losses from extreme weather in Taiwan have increased in the recent decade, with those losses associated with pronounced wet‐and‐cold events (temperature < 10 °C and precipitation >5 mm day −1 ). The regional and global patterns of atmospheric circulation and the sea surface temperature (SST) related to the extreme cold that damages fruits, vegetables, and paddy rice in northwest Taiwan were investigated. Cool SST anomalies in the western North Pacific (WNP) and warm SST in the central‐eastern Pacific associated with the Pacific meridional mode (PMM) shared a significant role in the occurrence of wet‐and‐cold events in northwest Taiwan. The interactions of the WNP/PMM with the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and the Central Pacific type of El Niño led to a pronounced lead–lag relationship with the occurrence of wet‐and‐cold events. An empirical model was subsequently developed to predict the wet‐and‐cold event frequency using observed values of WNP, Niño‐3.4, and Arctic Oscillation from year‐1 and predicted indices of WNP and PMM derived from the Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) outputs. The predictive skill of this hybrid empirical–dynamical model was statistically significant throughout the 6 months leading up to the occurrence of wet‐and‐cold events. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Wiley Online Library Arctic Pacific International Journal of Climatology 38 2 571 583 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
language |
English |
description |
ABSTRACT Winter crop losses from extreme weather in Taiwan have increased in the recent decade, with those losses associated with pronounced wet‐and‐cold events (temperature < 10 °C and precipitation >5 mm day −1 ). The regional and global patterns of atmospheric circulation and the sea surface temperature (SST) related to the extreme cold that damages fruits, vegetables, and paddy rice in northwest Taiwan were investigated. Cool SST anomalies in the western North Pacific (WNP) and warm SST in the central‐eastern Pacific associated with the Pacific meridional mode (PMM) shared a significant role in the occurrence of wet‐and‐cold events in northwest Taiwan. The interactions of the WNP/PMM with the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and the Central Pacific type of El Niño led to a pronounced lead–lag relationship with the occurrence of wet‐and‐cold events. An empirical model was subsequently developed to predict the wet‐and‐cold event frequency using observed values of WNP, Niño‐3.4, and Arctic Oscillation from year‐1 and predicted indices of WNP and PMM derived from the Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) outputs. The predictive skill of this hybrid empirical–dynamical model was statistically significant throughout the 6 months leading up to the occurrence of wet‐and‐cold events. |
author2 |
Utah Agricultural Experiment Station |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Promchote, Parichart Wang, S.‐Y. Simon Shen, Yuan Johnson, Paul G. Yao, Ming‐Hwi |
spellingShingle |
Promchote, Parichart Wang, S.‐Y. Simon Shen, Yuan Johnson, Paul G. Yao, Ming‐Hwi A seasonal prediction for the wet–cold spells leading to winter crop damage in northwestern Taiwan with a combined empirical–dynamical approach |
author_facet |
Promchote, Parichart Wang, S.‐Y. Simon Shen, Yuan Johnson, Paul G. Yao, Ming‐Hwi |
author_sort |
Promchote, Parichart |
title |
A seasonal prediction for the wet–cold spells leading to winter crop damage in northwestern Taiwan with a combined empirical–dynamical approach |
title_short |
A seasonal prediction for the wet–cold spells leading to winter crop damage in northwestern Taiwan with a combined empirical–dynamical approach |
title_full |
A seasonal prediction for the wet–cold spells leading to winter crop damage in northwestern Taiwan with a combined empirical–dynamical approach |
title_fullStr |
A seasonal prediction for the wet–cold spells leading to winter crop damage in northwestern Taiwan with a combined empirical–dynamical approach |
title_full_unstemmed |
A seasonal prediction for the wet–cold spells leading to winter crop damage in northwestern Taiwan with a combined empirical–dynamical approach |
title_sort |
seasonal prediction for the wet–cold spells leading to winter crop damage in northwestern taiwan with a combined empirical–dynamical approach |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.5194 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fjoc.5194 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.5194 |
geographic |
Arctic Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Pacific |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
International Journal of Climatology volume 38, issue 2, page 571-583 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5194 |
container_title |
International Journal of Climatology |
container_volume |
38 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
571 |
op_container_end_page |
583 |
_version_ |
1802641441326891008 |