Timing and associated climate change of a 2 °C global warming
ABSTRACT Towards a better insight into the timing and climate change associated with a 2 °C global warming above pre‐industrial levels in the 21st century, here we perform an analysis of all pertinent experiments within the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ( CMIP5 ). Co...
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crwiley:10.1002/joc.4647 2024-09-15T18:02:18+00:00 Timing and associated climate change of a 2 °C global warming Jiang, Dabang Sui, Yue Lang, Xianmei National Natural Science Foundation of China 2016 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.4647 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fjoc.4647 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.4647 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor International Journal of Climatology volume 36, issue 14, page 4512-4522 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 journal-article 2016 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4647 2024-08-01T04:19:42Z ABSTRACT Towards a better insight into the timing and climate change associated with a 2 °C global warming above pre‐industrial levels in the 21st century, here we perform an analysis of all pertinent experiments within the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ( CMIP5 ). Considering equally all available CMIP5 models, the probability of crossing the 2 °C target before the year 2100 is 26, 86, and 100% for the Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6 ( RCP2 .6), 4.5 ( RCP4 .5), and 8.5 ( RCP8 .5) scenarios, respectively, with the median years of 2054 for RCP4 .5 and 2042 for RCP8 .5. A 2 °C global warming would not be felt equally round the globe: stronger warming occurs over land than over the ocean, and the strongest warming occurs in the Arctic. Almost all temperature changes are larger than natural internal variability. Global average signal‐to‐noise ratios ( S/N ) of annual and seasonal temperature changes are in the range 3.2–5.0, and the largest values occur at low latitudes due to the lower background variability. Precipitation tends to increase at high latitudes but decrease in the subtropics, while all changes are smaller than natural internal variability except in parts of the high northern latitudes. The S/N of annual (seasonal) precipitation changes averages only 0.2 (no more than 0.1) for the globe. Article in Journal/Newspaper Climate change Global warming Wiley Online Library International Journal of Climatology 36 14 4512 4522 |
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English |
description |
ABSTRACT Towards a better insight into the timing and climate change associated with a 2 °C global warming above pre‐industrial levels in the 21st century, here we perform an analysis of all pertinent experiments within the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ( CMIP5 ). Considering equally all available CMIP5 models, the probability of crossing the 2 °C target before the year 2100 is 26, 86, and 100% for the Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6 ( RCP2 .6), 4.5 ( RCP4 .5), and 8.5 ( RCP8 .5) scenarios, respectively, with the median years of 2054 for RCP4 .5 and 2042 for RCP8 .5. A 2 °C global warming would not be felt equally round the globe: stronger warming occurs over land than over the ocean, and the strongest warming occurs in the Arctic. Almost all temperature changes are larger than natural internal variability. Global average signal‐to‐noise ratios ( S/N ) of annual and seasonal temperature changes are in the range 3.2–5.0, and the largest values occur at low latitudes due to the lower background variability. Precipitation tends to increase at high latitudes but decrease in the subtropics, while all changes are smaller than natural internal variability except in parts of the high northern latitudes. The S/N of annual (seasonal) precipitation changes averages only 0.2 (no more than 0.1) for the globe. |
author2 |
National Natural Science Foundation of China |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Jiang, Dabang Sui, Yue Lang, Xianmei |
spellingShingle |
Jiang, Dabang Sui, Yue Lang, Xianmei Timing and associated climate change of a 2 °C global warming |
author_facet |
Jiang, Dabang Sui, Yue Lang, Xianmei |
author_sort |
Jiang, Dabang |
title |
Timing and associated climate change of a 2 °C global warming |
title_short |
Timing and associated climate change of a 2 °C global warming |
title_full |
Timing and associated climate change of a 2 °C global warming |
title_fullStr |
Timing and associated climate change of a 2 °C global warming |
title_full_unstemmed |
Timing and associated climate change of a 2 °C global warming |
title_sort |
timing and associated climate change of a 2 °c global warming |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.4647 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fjoc.4647 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.4647 |
genre |
Climate change Global warming |
genre_facet |
Climate change Global warming |
op_source |
International Journal of Climatology volume 36, issue 14, page 4512-4522 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4647 |
container_title |
International Journal of Climatology |
container_volume |
36 |
container_issue |
14 |
container_start_page |
4512 |
op_container_end_page |
4522 |
_version_ |
1810439761699012608 |