Overestimated Arctic warming and underestimated Eurasia mid‐latitude warming in CMIP5 simulations
ABSTRACT The surface air temperature ( SAT ) trends from historical simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ( CMIP5 ) were compared with observations for the period of 1955–2004. The observed spatial pattern of SAT trends was strikingly different from the CMIP5 ‐historical s...
Published in: | International Journal of Climatology |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , |
Other Authors: | |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Wiley
2016
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.4644 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fjoc.4644 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.4644 |
id |
crwiley:10.1002/joc.4644 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
crwiley:10.1002/joc.4644 2024-06-23T07:49:34+00:00 Overestimated Arctic warming and underestimated Eurasia mid‐latitude warming in CMIP5 simulations Xie, Yongkun Liu, Yuzhi Huang, Jianping National Natural Science Foundation of China 2016 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.4644 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fjoc.4644 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.4644 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor International Journal of Climatology volume 36, issue 14, page 4475-4487 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 journal-article 2016 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4644 2024-06-04T06:47:27Z ABSTRACT The surface air temperature ( SAT ) trends from historical simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ( CMIP5 ) were compared with observations for the period of 1955–2004. The observed spatial pattern of SAT trends was strikingly different from the CMIP5 ‐historical simulations over mid‐ and high‐latitude Northern Hemisphere. The strongest observed warming for the Eurasian Continent was over mid latitudes. However, the CMIP5 historical simulations indicated enhanced warming over higher latitudes, and the warming trends increased from low to higher latitudes. The zonal mean SAT trends indicated overestimated warming in high‐latitude and underestimated warming in mid‐latitude land over Northern Hemisphere in CMIP5 historical simulations, which resulted in opposite trends in the meridional temperature gradient over high latitudes compared with observations. The overestimated Arctic and underestimated Eurasia mid‐latitude warming only occurred in cold season. Further comparison of the results of CMIP5 models from the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project and historical simulations revealed that model bias in sea surface temperature and the exaggerated response of temperature change to Arctic sea ice decline are possible reasons for poorly simulated Arctic and Eurasia mid‐latitude temperature change. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Sea ice Wiley Online Library Arctic International Journal of Climatology 36 14 4475 4487 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Wiley Online Library |
op_collection_id |
crwiley |
language |
English |
description |
ABSTRACT The surface air temperature ( SAT ) trends from historical simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ( CMIP5 ) were compared with observations for the period of 1955–2004. The observed spatial pattern of SAT trends was strikingly different from the CMIP5 ‐historical simulations over mid‐ and high‐latitude Northern Hemisphere. The strongest observed warming for the Eurasian Continent was over mid latitudes. However, the CMIP5 historical simulations indicated enhanced warming over higher latitudes, and the warming trends increased from low to higher latitudes. The zonal mean SAT trends indicated overestimated warming in high‐latitude and underestimated warming in mid‐latitude land over Northern Hemisphere in CMIP5 historical simulations, which resulted in opposite trends in the meridional temperature gradient over high latitudes compared with observations. The overestimated Arctic and underestimated Eurasia mid‐latitude warming only occurred in cold season. Further comparison of the results of CMIP5 models from the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project and historical simulations revealed that model bias in sea surface temperature and the exaggerated response of temperature change to Arctic sea ice decline are possible reasons for poorly simulated Arctic and Eurasia mid‐latitude temperature change. |
author2 |
National Natural Science Foundation of China |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Xie, Yongkun Liu, Yuzhi Huang, Jianping |
spellingShingle |
Xie, Yongkun Liu, Yuzhi Huang, Jianping Overestimated Arctic warming and underestimated Eurasia mid‐latitude warming in CMIP5 simulations |
author_facet |
Xie, Yongkun Liu, Yuzhi Huang, Jianping |
author_sort |
Xie, Yongkun |
title |
Overestimated Arctic warming and underestimated Eurasia mid‐latitude warming in CMIP5 simulations |
title_short |
Overestimated Arctic warming and underestimated Eurasia mid‐latitude warming in CMIP5 simulations |
title_full |
Overestimated Arctic warming and underestimated Eurasia mid‐latitude warming in CMIP5 simulations |
title_fullStr |
Overestimated Arctic warming and underestimated Eurasia mid‐latitude warming in CMIP5 simulations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Overestimated Arctic warming and underestimated Eurasia mid‐latitude warming in CMIP5 simulations |
title_sort |
overestimated arctic warming and underestimated eurasia mid‐latitude warming in cmip5 simulations |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.4644 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fjoc.4644 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.4644 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Sea ice |
op_source |
International Journal of Climatology volume 36, issue 14, page 4475-4487 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4644 |
container_title |
International Journal of Climatology |
container_volume |
36 |
container_issue |
14 |
container_start_page |
4475 |
op_container_end_page |
4487 |
_version_ |
1802640038901579776 |