Predictability of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation based on autumn circulation
ABSTRACT A statistical method for 1‐month lead prediction of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation ( AO ) is suggested in the study. Predictors, independently constructed for each forecast based on October geopotential height of the 500 hPa surface ( Z500 ), indicate that the strongest impact of October...
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crwiley:10.1002/joc.4616 2024-06-02T08:01:01+00:00 Predictability of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation based on autumn circulation Kryjov, Vladimir N. Min, Young‐Mi APEC Climate Center 2016 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.4616 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fjoc.4616 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.4616 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor International Journal of Climatology volume 36, issue 12, page 4181-4186 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 journal-article 2016 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4616 2024-05-03T11:55:28Z ABSTRACT A statistical method for 1‐month lead prediction of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation ( AO ) is suggested in the study. Predictors, independently constructed for each forecast based on October geopotential height of the 500 hPa surface ( Z500 ), indicate that the strongest impact of October circulation on the wintertime AO originates from a Z500 anomaly over the Taymyr Peninsula which causes an anomalous October advection of the cold (warm) air to the central Arctic and warm (cold) air to the East Asia prior to winters of the positive (negative) AO polarity. Independent verification assessments based on the series of 30 forecasts of the December–February ( DJF ) AO index ( AOI ) reveal a high skill of the developed method, with correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed DJF AOI being 0.61 and mean square skill score being 0.37. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Taymyr Taymyr Peninsula Wiley Online Library Arctic Taymyr ENVELOPE(89.987,89.987,68.219,68.219) International Journal of Climatology 36 12 4181 4186 |
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Open Polar |
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Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
language |
English |
description |
ABSTRACT A statistical method for 1‐month lead prediction of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation ( AO ) is suggested in the study. Predictors, independently constructed for each forecast based on October geopotential height of the 500 hPa surface ( Z500 ), indicate that the strongest impact of October circulation on the wintertime AO originates from a Z500 anomaly over the Taymyr Peninsula which causes an anomalous October advection of the cold (warm) air to the central Arctic and warm (cold) air to the East Asia prior to winters of the positive (negative) AO polarity. Independent verification assessments based on the series of 30 forecasts of the December–February ( DJF ) AO index ( AOI ) reveal a high skill of the developed method, with correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed DJF AOI being 0.61 and mean square skill score being 0.37. |
author2 |
APEC Climate Center |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kryjov, Vladimir N. Min, Young‐Mi |
spellingShingle |
Kryjov, Vladimir N. Min, Young‐Mi Predictability of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation based on autumn circulation |
author_facet |
Kryjov, Vladimir N. Min, Young‐Mi |
author_sort |
Kryjov, Vladimir N. |
title |
Predictability of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation based on autumn circulation |
title_short |
Predictability of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation based on autumn circulation |
title_full |
Predictability of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation based on autumn circulation |
title_fullStr |
Predictability of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation based on autumn circulation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predictability of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation based on autumn circulation |
title_sort |
predictability of the wintertime arctic oscillation based on autumn circulation |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.4616 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fjoc.4616 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.4616 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(89.987,89.987,68.219,68.219) |
geographic |
Arctic Taymyr |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Taymyr |
genre |
Arctic Taymyr Taymyr Peninsula |
genre_facet |
Arctic Taymyr Taymyr Peninsula |
op_source |
International Journal of Climatology volume 36, issue 12, page 4181-4186 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4616 |
container_title |
International Journal of Climatology |
container_volume |
36 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
4181 |
op_container_end_page |
4186 |
_version_ |
1800745268063240192 |