On the temporal clustering of US floods and its relationship to climate teleconnection patterns
Abstract This article examines whether the temporal clustering of flood events can be explained in terms of climate variability or time‐varying land‐surface state variables. The point process modelling framework for flood occurrence is based on Cox processes, which can be represented as Poisson proc...
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crwiley:10.1002/joc.3458 2024-06-23T07:55:11+00:00 On the temporal clustering of US floods and its relationship to climate teleconnection patterns Villarini, Gabriele Smith, James A. Vitolo, Renato Stephenson, David B. Willis Research Network 2012 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.3458 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fjoc.3458 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.3458 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor International Journal of Climatology volume 33, issue 3, page 629-640 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 journal-article 2012 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3458 2024-06-13T04:23:06Z Abstract This article examines whether the temporal clustering of flood events can be explained in terms of climate variability or time‐varying land‐surface state variables. The point process modelling framework for flood occurrence is based on Cox processes, which can be represented as Poisson processes with randomly varying rate of occurrence. In the special case that the rate of occurrence is deterministic, the Cox process simplifies to a Poisson process. Poisson processes represent flood occurrences which are not clustered. The Cox regression model is used to examine the dependence of the rate of occurrence on covariate processes. We focus on 41 stream gauge stations in Iowa, with discharge records covering the period 1950–2009. The climate covariates used in this study are the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific/North American Teleconnection (PNA). To examine the influence of land‐surface forcing on flood occurrence, the antecedent 30 d rainfall accumulation is considered. In 27 out of 41 stations, either PNA or NAO, or both are selected as significant predictors, suggesting that flood occurrence in Iowa is influenced by large‐scale climate indices. Antecedent rainfall, used as a proxy for soil moisture, plays an important role in driving the occurrence of flooding in Iowa. These results point to clustering as an important element of the flood occurrence process. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Wiley Online Library Pacific International Journal of Climatology 33 3 629 640 |
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Wiley Online Library |
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English |
description |
Abstract This article examines whether the temporal clustering of flood events can be explained in terms of climate variability or time‐varying land‐surface state variables. The point process modelling framework for flood occurrence is based on Cox processes, which can be represented as Poisson processes with randomly varying rate of occurrence. In the special case that the rate of occurrence is deterministic, the Cox process simplifies to a Poisson process. Poisson processes represent flood occurrences which are not clustered. The Cox regression model is used to examine the dependence of the rate of occurrence on covariate processes. We focus on 41 stream gauge stations in Iowa, with discharge records covering the period 1950–2009. The climate covariates used in this study are the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific/North American Teleconnection (PNA). To examine the influence of land‐surface forcing on flood occurrence, the antecedent 30 d rainfall accumulation is considered. In 27 out of 41 stations, either PNA or NAO, or both are selected as significant predictors, suggesting that flood occurrence in Iowa is influenced by large‐scale climate indices. Antecedent rainfall, used as a proxy for soil moisture, plays an important role in driving the occurrence of flooding in Iowa. These results point to clustering as an important element of the flood occurrence process. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society |
author2 |
Willis Research Network |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Villarini, Gabriele Smith, James A. Vitolo, Renato Stephenson, David B. |
spellingShingle |
Villarini, Gabriele Smith, James A. Vitolo, Renato Stephenson, David B. On the temporal clustering of US floods and its relationship to climate teleconnection patterns |
author_facet |
Villarini, Gabriele Smith, James A. Vitolo, Renato Stephenson, David B. |
author_sort |
Villarini, Gabriele |
title |
On the temporal clustering of US floods and its relationship to climate teleconnection patterns |
title_short |
On the temporal clustering of US floods and its relationship to climate teleconnection patterns |
title_full |
On the temporal clustering of US floods and its relationship to climate teleconnection patterns |
title_fullStr |
On the temporal clustering of US floods and its relationship to climate teleconnection patterns |
title_full_unstemmed |
On the temporal clustering of US floods and its relationship to climate teleconnection patterns |
title_sort |
on the temporal clustering of us floods and its relationship to climate teleconnection patterns |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.3458 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fjoc.3458 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.3458 |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
International Journal of Climatology volume 33, issue 3, page 629-640 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3458 |
container_title |
International Journal of Climatology |
container_volume |
33 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
629 |
op_container_end_page |
640 |
_version_ |
1802647665811390464 |