Development of statistical models for at‐site probabilistic seasonal rainfall forecast

• Published in: International Journal of Climatology
• Main Authors: Villarini, Gabriele, Serinaldi, Francesco
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Wiley 2011
• Subjects: Soi; North Atlantic; North Atlantic oscillation
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.3393; https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fjoc.3393; https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.3393

Abstract A probabilistic seasonal rainfall forecasting system for the Bucharest‐Filaret (Romania) station based on Generalized Additive Models in Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) is proposed. First we develop statistical models to describe seasonal rainfall over the period 1926‐2000, both consider...