The CFC greenhouse potential of scenarios possible under the montreal protocol
Abstract Measurement campaigns have given concrete evidence of serious ozone destruction both over the Antarctic and the Arctic regions. This has spawned international action for the protection of the ozone layer, such as the Vienna Convention in 1985 and the Montreal Protocol in 1987. Current chlor...
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crwiley:10.1002/joc.3370100502 2024-06-02T07:57:15+00:00 The CFC greenhouse potential of scenarios possible under the montreal protocol Bach, Wilfrid Jain, Atul K. 1990 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370100502 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fjoc.3370100502 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.3370100502 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor International Journal of Climatology volume 10, issue 5, page 439-450 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 journal-article 1990 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370100502 2024-05-03T11:43:07Z Abstract Measurement campaigns have given concrete evidence of serious ozone destruction both over the Antarctic and the Arctic regions. This has spawned international action for the protection of the ozone layer, such as the Vienna Convention in 1985 and the Montreal Protocol in 1987. Current chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) reduction plans are, however, inadequate. Therefore, a strengthening of the Protocol's provisions is intended for 1990. The urgency of the Protocol's revision gains strength by the fact that the ozone depleting CFCs have also a strong greenhouse potential, thereby contributing significantly to climatic change. In this paper we consider five CFC production and emission scenarios (scenarios A‐E) that are possible under the Protocol's provisions, and two phase‐out scenarios by 2000 and 1996, respectively (scenarios F and G). The possible global mean surface temperature changes are calculated with the parameterized form of a one‐dimensional radiative‐convective model from 1986 to 2050 for the five CFCs (11, 12, 113, 114, and 115) controlled by the Protocol, eight additional CFCs, some of which could be used as possible substitutes, and the main greenhouse gases CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O. The key findings are as follows. Without control, in 2050 the equilibrium global mean warming due to the five CFCs could rise sixteen fold above the 1985 vulue. The present Protocol provisions would still permit two to nine times higher equilibrium temperatures than today. A phase‐out by 2000 and 1996 would, over the period of 1986–2050, result in a reduction from the present equilibrium temperature change of 9 and 18 per cent, respectively. In addition, the other CFCs (e.g. CCl 4 , CH 3 CCl 3 , HFC‐22) may add significantly to global warming and thus should also be controlled. The high greenhouse warming potential provides another strong motive for the necessity of a phase‐out of all ozone‐depleting CFCs. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Global warming Wiley Online Library Antarctic Arctic The Antarctic International Journal of Climatology 10 5 439 450 |
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Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract Measurement campaigns have given concrete evidence of serious ozone destruction both over the Antarctic and the Arctic regions. This has spawned international action for the protection of the ozone layer, such as the Vienna Convention in 1985 and the Montreal Protocol in 1987. Current chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) reduction plans are, however, inadequate. Therefore, a strengthening of the Protocol's provisions is intended for 1990. The urgency of the Protocol's revision gains strength by the fact that the ozone depleting CFCs have also a strong greenhouse potential, thereby contributing significantly to climatic change. In this paper we consider five CFC production and emission scenarios (scenarios A‐E) that are possible under the Protocol's provisions, and two phase‐out scenarios by 2000 and 1996, respectively (scenarios F and G). The possible global mean surface temperature changes are calculated with the parameterized form of a one‐dimensional radiative‐convective model from 1986 to 2050 for the five CFCs (11, 12, 113, 114, and 115) controlled by the Protocol, eight additional CFCs, some of which could be used as possible substitutes, and the main greenhouse gases CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O. The key findings are as follows. Without control, in 2050 the equilibrium global mean warming due to the five CFCs could rise sixteen fold above the 1985 vulue. The present Protocol provisions would still permit two to nine times higher equilibrium temperatures than today. A phase‐out by 2000 and 1996 would, over the period of 1986–2050, result in a reduction from the present equilibrium temperature change of 9 and 18 per cent, respectively. In addition, the other CFCs (e.g. CCl 4 , CH 3 CCl 3 , HFC‐22) may add significantly to global warming and thus should also be controlled. The high greenhouse warming potential provides another strong motive for the necessity of a phase‐out of all ozone‐depleting CFCs. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bach, Wilfrid Jain, Atul K. |
spellingShingle |
Bach, Wilfrid Jain, Atul K. The CFC greenhouse potential of scenarios possible under the montreal protocol |
author_facet |
Bach, Wilfrid Jain, Atul K. |
author_sort |
Bach, Wilfrid |
title |
The CFC greenhouse potential of scenarios possible under the montreal protocol |
title_short |
The CFC greenhouse potential of scenarios possible under the montreal protocol |
title_full |
The CFC greenhouse potential of scenarios possible under the montreal protocol |
title_fullStr |
The CFC greenhouse potential of scenarios possible under the montreal protocol |
title_full_unstemmed |
The CFC greenhouse potential of scenarios possible under the montreal protocol |
title_sort |
cfc greenhouse potential of scenarios possible under the montreal protocol |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
1990 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370100502 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fjoc.3370100502 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.3370100502 |
geographic |
Antarctic Arctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Arctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Global warming |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Global warming |
op_source |
International Journal of Climatology volume 10, issue 5, page 439-450 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370100502 |
container_title |
International Journal of Climatology |
container_volume |
10 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
439 |
op_container_end_page |
450 |
_version_ |
1800740199164018688 |