A multivariate statistical model for forecasting anomalies of half‐monthly mean surface pressure
Abstract A multivariate statistical model for forecasting anomalies of surface pressure over Europe and the North Atlantic Ocean at medium to long range used routinely in the Synoptic Climatology Branch of the Meteorological Office is described. The model discriminates between broad classes of circu...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370050509 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fjoc.3370050509 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.3370050509 |
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crwiley:10.1002/joc.3370050509 2024-06-02T08:11:19+00:00 A multivariate statistical model for forecasting anomalies of half‐monthly mean surface pressure Maryon, R. H. Storey, A. M. 1985 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370050509 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fjoc.3370050509 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.3370050509 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Journal of Climatology volume 5, issue 5, page 561-578 ISSN 0196-1748 journal-article 1985 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370050509 2024-05-03T11:45:53Z Abstract A multivariate statistical model for forecasting anomalies of surface pressure over Europe and the North Atlantic Ocean at medium to long range used routinely in the Synoptic Climatology Branch of the Meteorological Office is described. The model discriminates between broad classes of circulation type using a multivariate predictor space (including areal sea surface temperature anomalies). The forecasts may take categorical or probabilistic form, and the likelihood of the occurrence of categories of circulation index, temperature and rainfall over the U.K. can be produced using Bayesian methods. Emphasis is laid on the difficulties of applying classical statistical analysis to atmospheric fields, as this important aspect of long range forecasting by empirical methods tends to be neglected in the literature. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Wiley Online Library Journal of Climatology 5 5 561 578 |
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Open Polar |
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Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract A multivariate statistical model for forecasting anomalies of surface pressure over Europe and the North Atlantic Ocean at medium to long range used routinely in the Synoptic Climatology Branch of the Meteorological Office is described. The model discriminates between broad classes of circulation type using a multivariate predictor space (including areal sea surface temperature anomalies). The forecasts may take categorical or probabilistic form, and the likelihood of the occurrence of categories of circulation index, temperature and rainfall over the U.K. can be produced using Bayesian methods. Emphasis is laid on the difficulties of applying classical statistical analysis to atmospheric fields, as this important aspect of long range forecasting by empirical methods tends to be neglected in the literature. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Maryon, R. H. Storey, A. M. |
spellingShingle |
Maryon, R. H. Storey, A. M. A multivariate statistical model for forecasting anomalies of half‐monthly mean surface pressure |
author_facet |
Maryon, R. H. Storey, A. M. |
author_sort |
Maryon, R. H. |
title |
A multivariate statistical model for forecasting anomalies of half‐monthly mean surface pressure |
title_short |
A multivariate statistical model for forecasting anomalies of half‐monthly mean surface pressure |
title_full |
A multivariate statistical model for forecasting anomalies of half‐monthly mean surface pressure |
title_fullStr |
A multivariate statistical model for forecasting anomalies of half‐monthly mean surface pressure |
title_full_unstemmed |
A multivariate statistical model for forecasting anomalies of half‐monthly mean surface pressure |
title_sort |
multivariate statistical model for forecasting anomalies of half‐monthly mean surface pressure |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
1985 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370050509 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fjoc.3370050509 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.3370050509 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Journal of Climatology volume 5, issue 5, page 561-578 ISSN 0196-1748 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370050509 |
container_title |
Journal of Climatology |
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5 |
container_issue |
5 |
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561 |
op_container_end_page |
578 |
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1800757412902207488 |