Onset of the total ozone increase based on statistical analyses of global ground‐based data for the period 1964–2008
Abstract The zonally averaged total column ozone from ground‐based observations for the period 1964–2008 is being examined to detect changes in the trend pattern. The ozone long‐term changes for the periods 1980–1995 and 1996–2008 are estimated through the use of a triad of regression models that di...
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crwiley:10.1002/joc.2264 2024-06-02T07:58:26+00:00 Onset of the total ozone increase based on statistical analyses of global ground‐based data for the period 1964–2008 Krzyścin, J. W. State of Environment in Poland 2010 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.2264 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fjoc.2264 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.2264 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor International Journal of Climatology volume 32, issue 2, page 240-246 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 journal-article 2010 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2264 2024-05-03T10:51:59Z Abstract The zonally averaged total column ozone from ground‐based observations for the period 1964–2008 is being examined to detect changes in the trend pattern. The ozone long‐term changes for the periods 1980–1995 and 1996–2008 are estimated through the use of a triad of regression models that differ in the description of a trend term. The trend term could be proportional to the amount of ozone‐depleting substances in the atmosphere, or has a piecewise linear form with turning points in 1980 and 1996, or described by any smooth curve. The standard indices of the ozone dynamical drivers: 10.7 cm solar flux, zonal component of the stratospheric wind in the tropics, the Arctic, and Antarctic Oscillation index, and the vertical component of the Eliassen‐Palm flux are used to parameterise the ozone response to changes in the atmospheric dynamics. The trends are calculated separately for each season and for the entire year by using the aggregated monthly mean data over broad latitudinal zones: SH polar (90°S–65°S), SH midlatitudes (60°S–30°S), Tropics (25°S–25°N), NH midlatitudes (30°N–60°N), NH polar (65°N–90°N), 50°S–50°N band, and the entire globe (90°S–90°N). All versions of the trend model give statistically significant (at the 95% confidence level) positive trends of ∼0.5–1.0% per decade for the period 1996–2008 over the whole globe (boreal spring), and over 50°S–50°N zone (boreal summer and the entire year). An agreement between trend values by various trend models with different parameterisation of the dynamically driven ozone variations builds a strong support for changes in the trend pattern since the mid‐1990s. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Wiley Online Library Antarctic Arctic International Journal of Climatology 32 2 240 246 |
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Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract The zonally averaged total column ozone from ground‐based observations for the period 1964–2008 is being examined to detect changes in the trend pattern. The ozone long‐term changes for the periods 1980–1995 and 1996–2008 are estimated through the use of a triad of regression models that differ in the description of a trend term. The trend term could be proportional to the amount of ozone‐depleting substances in the atmosphere, or has a piecewise linear form with turning points in 1980 and 1996, or described by any smooth curve. The standard indices of the ozone dynamical drivers: 10.7 cm solar flux, zonal component of the stratospheric wind in the tropics, the Arctic, and Antarctic Oscillation index, and the vertical component of the Eliassen‐Palm flux are used to parameterise the ozone response to changes in the atmospheric dynamics. The trends are calculated separately for each season and for the entire year by using the aggregated monthly mean data over broad latitudinal zones: SH polar (90°S–65°S), SH midlatitudes (60°S–30°S), Tropics (25°S–25°N), NH midlatitudes (30°N–60°N), NH polar (65°N–90°N), 50°S–50°N band, and the entire globe (90°S–90°N). All versions of the trend model give statistically significant (at the 95% confidence level) positive trends of ∼0.5–1.0% per decade for the period 1996–2008 over the whole globe (boreal spring), and over 50°S–50°N zone (boreal summer and the entire year). An agreement between trend values by various trend models with different parameterisation of the dynamically driven ozone variations builds a strong support for changes in the trend pattern since the mid‐1990s. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society |
author2 |
State of Environment in Poland |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Krzyścin, J. W. |
spellingShingle |
Krzyścin, J. W. Onset of the total ozone increase based on statistical analyses of global ground‐based data for the period 1964–2008 |
author_facet |
Krzyścin, J. W. |
author_sort |
Krzyścin, J. W. |
title |
Onset of the total ozone increase based on statistical analyses of global ground‐based data for the period 1964–2008 |
title_short |
Onset of the total ozone increase based on statistical analyses of global ground‐based data for the period 1964–2008 |
title_full |
Onset of the total ozone increase based on statistical analyses of global ground‐based data for the period 1964–2008 |
title_fullStr |
Onset of the total ozone increase based on statistical analyses of global ground‐based data for the period 1964–2008 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Onset of the total ozone increase based on statistical analyses of global ground‐based data for the period 1964–2008 |
title_sort |
onset of the total ozone increase based on statistical analyses of global ground‐based data for the period 1964–2008 |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2010 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.2264 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fjoc.2264 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.2264 |
geographic |
Antarctic Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Arctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic |
op_source |
International Journal of Climatology volume 32, issue 2, page 240-246 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2264 |
container_title |
International Journal of Climatology |
container_volume |
32 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
240 |
op_container_end_page |
246 |
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1800741767937523712 |