Climatic precursors of autumn streamflow in the northeast United States
Abstract In this study, statistical linkages between autumn streamflow in the northeast United States and preceding summer sea surface temperatures are developed to establish predictive potential for climate‐informed seasonal streamflow forecasts in this region. Predictor regions with physically pla...
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crwiley:10.1002/joc.2190 2024-06-23T07:51:46+00:00 Climatic precursors of autumn streamflow in the northeast United States Gong, Gavin Wang, Lucien Lall, Upmanu NOAA Award 2011 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.2190 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fjoc.2190 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.2190 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor International Journal of Climatology volume 31, issue 12, page 1773-1784 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 journal-article 2011 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2190 2024-06-11T04:43:52Z Abstract In this study, statistical linkages between autumn streamflow in the northeast United States and preceding summer sea surface temperatures are developed to establish predictive potential for climate‐informed seasonal streamflow forecasts in this region. Predictor regions with physically plausible teleconnections to local streamflow are identified and evaluated in a multivariate and nonlinear framework using local regression techniques. Three such regions are identified, located in the Bering Sea, the tropical Pacific just west of Mexico, and the tropical Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Asymmetries in each region's univariate local regression result are apparent, and bivariate local regressions are used to attribute these asymmetries to interactions with physical mechanisms associated with the other two regions, and possibly other unaccounted for climatic predictors. A bivariate model including the tropical Pacific and tropical Atlantic regions yields the strongest local regression result, explaining 0.68 of the interannual streamflow variability. An analogous multivariate linear regression analysis is only able to explain 0.20 of the streamflow variability and thus the use of nonlinear methods' results in a marked improvement in streamflow simulation capability. Cross‐validation considerably weakens the streamflow forecasts using this model; however, forecast skill may improve with a longer period of record or the inclusion of additional predictors. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society Article in Journal/Newspaper Bering Sea Wiley Online Library Bering Sea Pacific International Journal of Climatology 31 12 1773 1784 |
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Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract In this study, statistical linkages between autumn streamflow in the northeast United States and preceding summer sea surface temperatures are developed to establish predictive potential for climate‐informed seasonal streamflow forecasts in this region. Predictor regions with physically plausible teleconnections to local streamflow are identified and evaluated in a multivariate and nonlinear framework using local regression techniques. Three such regions are identified, located in the Bering Sea, the tropical Pacific just west of Mexico, and the tropical Atlantic off the coast of Africa. Asymmetries in each region's univariate local regression result are apparent, and bivariate local regressions are used to attribute these asymmetries to interactions with physical mechanisms associated with the other two regions, and possibly other unaccounted for climatic predictors. A bivariate model including the tropical Pacific and tropical Atlantic regions yields the strongest local regression result, explaining 0.68 of the interannual streamflow variability. An analogous multivariate linear regression analysis is only able to explain 0.20 of the streamflow variability and thus the use of nonlinear methods' results in a marked improvement in streamflow simulation capability. Cross‐validation considerably weakens the streamflow forecasts using this model; however, forecast skill may improve with a longer period of record or the inclusion of additional predictors. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society |
author2 |
NOAA Award |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Gong, Gavin Wang, Lucien Lall, Upmanu |
spellingShingle |
Gong, Gavin Wang, Lucien Lall, Upmanu Climatic precursors of autumn streamflow in the northeast United States |
author_facet |
Gong, Gavin Wang, Lucien Lall, Upmanu |
author_sort |
Gong, Gavin |
title |
Climatic precursors of autumn streamflow in the northeast United States |
title_short |
Climatic precursors of autumn streamflow in the northeast United States |
title_full |
Climatic precursors of autumn streamflow in the northeast United States |
title_fullStr |
Climatic precursors of autumn streamflow in the northeast United States |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climatic precursors of autumn streamflow in the northeast United States |
title_sort |
climatic precursors of autumn streamflow in the northeast united states |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.2190 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fjoc.2190 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.2190 |
geographic |
Bering Sea Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Bering Sea Pacific |
genre |
Bering Sea |
genre_facet |
Bering Sea |
op_source |
International Journal of Climatology volume 31, issue 12, page 1773-1784 ISSN 0899-8418 1097-0088 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2190 |
container_title |
International Journal of Climatology |
container_volume |
31 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
1773 |
op_container_end_page |
1784 |
_version_ |
1802642895379890176 |