Prediction of the impact of climate change on drought: an evaluation of six UK catchments using two stochastic approaches
Abstract Under future climate scenarios, possible changes of drought patterns pose new challenges for water resources management. For quantifying and qualifying drought characteristics in the UK, the drought severity indices of six catchments are investigated and modelled by two stochastic methods:...
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crwiley:10.1002/hyp.9259 2024-06-23T07:55:11+00:00 Prediction of the impact of climate change on drought: an evaluation of six UK catchments using two stochastic approaches Chun, Kwok Pan Wheater, Howard Onof, Christian 2012 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9259 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fhyp.9259 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/hyp.9259 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Hydrological Processes volume 27, issue 11, page 1600-1614 ISSN 0885-6087 1099-1085 journal-article 2012 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9259 2024-06-13T04:24:18Z Abstract Under future climate scenarios, possible changes of drought patterns pose new challenges for water resources management. For quantifying and qualifying drought characteristics in the UK, the drought severity indices of six catchments are investigated and modelled by two stochastic methods: autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models and the generalized linear model (GLM) approach. From the ARIMA models, autocorrelation structures are first identified for the drought index series, and the unexplained variance of the series is used to establish empirical relationships between drought and climate variables. Based on the ARIMA results, mean sea level pressure and possibly the North Atlantic Oscillation index are found to be significant climate variables for seasonal drought forecasting. Using the GLM approach, occurrences and amounts of rainfall are simulated with conditioning on climate variables. From the GLM‐simulated rainfall for the 1980s and 2080s, the probabilistic characteristics of the drought severity are derived and assessed. Results indicate that the drought pattern in the 2080s is less certain than for the 1961–1990 period, based on the Shannon entropy, but that droughts are expected to be more clustered and intermittent. The 10th and 50th quantiles of drought are likely higher in the 2080s scenarios, but there is no evidence showing the changes in the 90th quantile extreme droughts. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Wiley Online Library Hydrological Processes 27 11 1600 1614 |
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Abstract Under future climate scenarios, possible changes of drought patterns pose new challenges for water resources management. For quantifying and qualifying drought characteristics in the UK, the drought severity indices of six catchments are investigated and modelled by two stochastic methods: autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models and the generalized linear model (GLM) approach. From the ARIMA models, autocorrelation structures are first identified for the drought index series, and the unexplained variance of the series is used to establish empirical relationships between drought and climate variables. Based on the ARIMA results, mean sea level pressure and possibly the North Atlantic Oscillation index are found to be significant climate variables for seasonal drought forecasting. Using the GLM approach, occurrences and amounts of rainfall are simulated with conditioning on climate variables. From the GLM‐simulated rainfall for the 1980s and 2080s, the probabilistic characteristics of the drought severity are derived and assessed. Results indicate that the drought pattern in the 2080s is less certain than for the 1961–1990 period, based on the Shannon entropy, but that droughts are expected to be more clustered and intermittent. The 10th and 50th quantiles of drought are likely higher in the 2080s scenarios, but there is no evidence showing the changes in the 90th quantile extreme droughts. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Chun, Kwok Pan Wheater, Howard Onof, Christian |
spellingShingle |
Chun, Kwok Pan Wheater, Howard Onof, Christian Prediction of the impact of climate change on drought: an evaluation of six UK catchments using two stochastic approaches |
author_facet |
Chun, Kwok Pan Wheater, Howard Onof, Christian |
author_sort |
Chun, Kwok Pan |
title |
Prediction of the impact of climate change on drought: an evaluation of six UK catchments using two stochastic approaches |
title_short |
Prediction of the impact of climate change on drought: an evaluation of six UK catchments using two stochastic approaches |
title_full |
Prediction of the impact of climate change on drought: an evaluation of six UK catchments using two stochastic approaches |
title_fullStr |
Prediction of the impact of climate change on drought: an evaluation of six UK catchments using two stochastic approaches |
title_full_unstemmed |
Prediction of the impact of climate change on drought: an evaluation of six UK catchments using two stochastic approaches |
title_sort |
prediction of the impact of climate change on drought: an evaluation of six uk catchments using two stochastic approaches |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9259 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fhyp.9259 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/hyp.9259 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Hydrological Processes volume 27, issue 11, page 1600-1614 ISSN 0885-6087 1099-1085 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9259 |
container_title |
Hydrological Processes |
container_volume |
27 |
container_issue |
11 |
container_start_page |
1600 |
op_container_end_page |
1614 |
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1802647654310608896 |