Seasonal forecast of cooling water problems in the River Rhine
Abstract Cooling water scarcity in the River Rhine due to low flows during summer and high water temperatures may endanger power supply in the Netherlands and Germany. This research addresses the feasibility of early warning for cooling water problems on a seasonal timescale using large‐scale oceani...
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crwiley:10.1002/hyp.6988 2024-03-17T08:59:15+00:00 Seasonal forecast of cooling water problems in the River Rhine Rutten, Martine van de Giesen, Nick Baptist, Martin Icke, Joost Uijttewaal, Wim 2008 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6988 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fhyp.6988 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/hyp.6988 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Hydrological Processes volume 22, issue 7, page 1037-1045 ISSN 0885-6087 1099-1085 Water Science and Technology journal-article 2008 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6988 2024-02-22T01:05:36Z Abstract Cooling water scarcity in the River Rhine due to low flows during summer and high water temperatures may endanger power supply in the Netherlands and Germany. This research addresses the feasibility of early warning for cooling water problems on a seasonal timescale using large‐scale oceanic and atmospheric patterns as predictors. The correlation strength, stability as well as probabilistic skill of possible teleconnections were assessed. The strongest teleconnection was found between January North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and August water temperatures. The evaluated teleconnections between NAO and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and discharge do not increase skill compared to only using information on discharge itself in the winter and spring months. In pseudo‐operational context model results were shown to be very sensitive to the choice of predictor selection criteria significance and stability. Though for some responses statistically significant forecasts were found, discussion and research with stakeholders about handling risk levels and probabilistic forecasts would be required to assess the practical significance of the forecasts. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Wiley Online Library Hydrological Processes 22 7 1037 1045 |
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Wiley Online Library |
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English |
topic |
Water Science and Technology |
spellingShingle |
Water Science and Technology Rutten, Martine van de Giesen, Nick Baptist, Martin Icke, Joost Uijttewaal, Wim Seasonal forecast of cooling water problems in the River Rhine |
topic_facet |
Water Science and Technology |
description |
Abstract Cooling water scarcity in the River Rhine due to low flows during summer and high water temperatures may endanger power supply in the Netherlands and Germany. This research addresses the feasibility of early warning for cooling water problems on a seasonal timescale using large‐scale oceanic and atmospheric patterns as predictors. The correlation strength, stability as well as probabilistic skill of possible teleconnections were assessed. The strongest teleconnection was found between January North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and August water temperatures. The evaluated teleconnections between NAO and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and discharge do not increase skill compared to only using information on discharge itself in the winter and spring months. In pseudo‐operational context model results were shown to be very sensitive to the choice of predictor selection criteria significance and stability. Though for some responses statistically significant forecasts were found, discussion and research with stakeholders about handling risk levels and probabilistic forecasts would be required to assess the practical significance of the forecasts. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Rutten, Martine van de Giesen, Nick Baptist, Martin Icke, Joost Uijttewaal, Wim |
author_facet |
Rutten, Martine van de Giesen, Nick Baptist, Martin Icke, Joost Uijttewaal, Wim |
author_sort |
Rutten, Martine |
title |
Seasonal forecast of cooling water problems in the River Rhine |
title_short |
Seasonal forecast of cooling water problems in the River Rhine |
title_full |
Seasonal forecast of cooling water problems in the River Rhine |
title_fullStr |
Seasonal forecast of cooling water problems in the River Rhine |
title_full_unstemmed |
Seasonal forecast of cooling water problems in the River Rhine |
title_sort |
seasonal forecast of cooling water problems in the river rhine |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2008 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6988 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fhyp.6988 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/hyp.6988 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Hydrological Processes volume 22, issue 7, page 1037-1045 ISSN 0885-6087 1099-1085 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6988 |
container_title |
Hydrological Processes |
container_volume |
22 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
1037 |
op_container_end_page |
1045 |
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1793769664597196800 |