Daily streamflow trends in Western versus Eastern Norway and their attribution to hydro‐meteorological drivers

• Published in: Hydrological Processes
• Main Authors: Skålevåg, Amalie, Vormoor, Klaus
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Wiley 2021
• Subjects: Kendall; Norway; glacier
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/hyp.14329; https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/hyp.14329; https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/hyp.14329

Abstract Regional warming and modifications in precipitation regimes has large impacts on streamflow in Norway, where both rainfall and snowmelt are important runoff generating processes. Hydrological impacts of recent changes in climate are usually investigated by trend analyses applied on annual, seasonal, or monthly time series. None of these detect sub‐seasonal changes and their underlying causes. This study investigated sub‐seasonal changes in streamflow, rainfall, and snowmelt in 61 and 51 catchments respectively in Western (Vestlandet) and Eastern (Østlandet) Norway by applying the Mann–Kendall test and Theil–Sen estimator on 10‐day moving averaged daily time series over a 30‐year period (1983–2012). The relative contribution of rainfall versus snowmelt to daily streamflow and the changes therein have also been estimated to identify the changing relevance of these driving processes over the same period. Detected changes in 10‐day moving averaged daily streamflow were finally attributed to changes in the most important hydro‐meteorological drivers using multiple‐regression models with increasing complexity. Earlier spring flow timing in both regions occur due to earlier snowmelt. Østlandet shows increased summer streamflow in catchments up to 1100 m a.s.l. and slightly increased winter streamflow in about 50% of the catchments. Trend patterns in Vestlandet are less coherent. The importance of rainfall has increased in both regions. Attribution of trends reveals that changes in rainfall and snowmelt can explain some streamflow changes where they are dominant processes (e.g., spring snowmelt in Østlandet and autumn rainfall in Vestlandet). Overall, the detected streamflow changes can be best explained by adding temperature trends as an additional predictor, indicating the relevance of additional driving processes such as increased glacier melt and evapotranspiration.