Transferability of a calibrated numerical model of rock avalanche run‐out: Application to 20 rock avalanches on the Nuussuaq Peninsula, West Greenland
Abstract Long run‐out rock avalanches are one of the most hazardous geomorphic processes, and risk assessments of the threat they pose are often reliant on numerical modelling of their potential run‐out distance. The development of such models requires a thorough understanding of past flow behaviour...
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crwiley:10.1002/esp.4469 2024-09-15T18:09:39+00:00 Transferability of a calibrated numerical model of rock avalanche run‐out: Application to 20 rock avalanches on the Nuussuaq Peninsula, West Greenland Benjamin, J. Rosser, N.J. Dunning, S.A. Hardy, R.J. Kelfoun, K. Szczuciński, W. Narodowe Centrum Nauki 2018 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/esp.4469 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fesp.4469 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/esp.4469 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Earth Surface Processes and Landforms volume 43, issue 15, page 3057-3073 ISSN 0197-9337 1096-9837 journal-article 2018 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.4469 2024-07-25T04:19:47Z Abstract Long run‐out rock avalanches are one of the most hazardous geomorphic processes, and risk assessments of the threat they pose are often reliant on numerical modelling of their potential run‐out distance. The development of such models requires a thorough understanding of past flow behaviour inferred from deposits emplaced by previous events. Despite this, few records exist of multiple rock avalanches that occurred in conditions sufficiently consistent to develop a set of more generalised, and hence transferrable, rules. We conduct field and imagery‐based mapping and use numerical modelling to investigate the emplacement of 20 adjacent rock avalanches on the southern flanks of the Nuussuaq peninsula, West Greenland. The rock avalanches run out towards the Vaigat Strait, and are sourced from a range of coastal mountains of relatively uniform geology. We calibrate a three‐dimensional continuum dynamic flow code, VolcFlow , with data from a modern, well‐constrained event that occurred at Paatuut ( ad 2000). The best‐fit model assumes a constant retarding stress with a collisional stress coefficient, simulating run‐out to within ±0.3% of that observed. This calibration was then used to model the emplacement of deposits from five other neighbouring rock avalanches before simulating the general characteristics of a further 14 rock avalanche deposits on simplified topography. Our findings illustrate that a single calibration of VolcFlow can account for the observed deposit morphology of a uniquely large collection of rock avalanche deposits, emplaced by a series of events spanning a large volume range. Although the prevailing approach of tuning models to a specific case may be useful for detailed back‐analysis of that event, we show that more generally applied models, even using a single pair of rheological parameters, can be used to model potential rock avalanches of varied volumes in a region and, therefore, to assess the risks that they pose. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Nuussuaq Wiley Online Library Earth Surface Processes and Landforms 43 15 3057 3073 |
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English |
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Abstract Long run‐out rock avalanches are one of the most hazardous geomorphic processes, and risk assessments of the threat they pose are often reliant on numerical modelling of their potential run‐out distance. The development of such models requires a thorough understanding of past flow behaviour inferred from deposits emplaced by previous events. Despite this, few records exist of multiple rock avalanches that occurred in conditions sufficiently consistent to develop a set of more generalised, and hence transferrable, rules. We conduct field and imagery‐based mapping and use numerical modelling to investigate the emplacement of 20 adjacent rock avalanches on the southern flanks of the Nuussuaq peninsula, West Greenland. The rock avalanches run out towards the Vaigat Strait, and are sourced from a range of coastal mountains of relatively uniform geology. We calibrate a three‐dimensional continuum dynamic flow code, VolcFlow , with data from a modern, well‐constrained event that occurred at Paatuut ( ad 2000). The best‐fit model assumes a constant retarding stress with a collisional stress coefficient, simulating run‐out to within ±0.3% of that observed. This calibration was then used to model the emplacement of deposits from five other neighbouring rock avalanches before simulating the general characteristics of a further 14 rock avalanche deposits on simplified topography. Our findings illustrate that a single calibration of VolcFlow can account for the observed deposit morphology of a uniquely large collection of rock avalanche deposits, emplaced by a series of events spanning a large volume range. Although the prevailing approach of tuning models to a specific case may be useful for detailed back‐analysis of that event, we show that more generally applied models, even using a single pair of rheological parameters, can be used to model potential rock avalanches of varied volumes in a region and, therefore, to assess the risks that they pose. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. |
author2 |
Narodowe Centrum Nauki |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Benjamin, J. Rosser, N.J. Dunning, S.A. Hardy, R.J. Kelfoun, K. Szczuciński, W. |
spellingShingle |
Benjamin, J. Rosser, N.J. Dunning, S.A. Hardy, R.J. Kelfoun, K. Szczuciński, W. Transferability of a calibrated numerical model of rock avalanche run‐out: Application to 20 rock avalanches on the Nuussuaq Peninsula, West Greenland |
author_facet |
Benjamin, J. Rosser, N.J. Dunning, S.A. Hardy, R.J. Kelfoun, K. Szczuciński, W. |
author_sort |
Benjamin, J. |
title |
Transferability of a calibrated numerical model of rock avalanche run‐out: Application to 20 rock avalanches on the Nuussuaq Peninsula, West Greenland |
title_short |
Transferability of a calibrated numerical model of rock avalanche run‐out: Application to 20 rock avalanches on the Nuussuaq Peninsula, West Greenland |
title_full |
Transferability of a calibrated numerical model of rock avalanche run‐out: Application to 20 rock avalanches on the Nuussuaq Peninsula, West Greenland |
title_fullStr |
Transferability of a calibrated numerical model of rock avalanche run‐out: Application to 20 rock avalanches on the Nuussuaq Peninsula, West Greenland |
title_full_unstemmed |
Transferability of a calibrated numerical model of rock avalanche run‐out: Application to 20 rock avalanches on the Nuussuaq Peninsula, West Greenland |
title_sort |
transferability of a calibrated numerical model of rock avalanche run‐out: application to 20 rock avalanches on the nuussuaq peninsula, west greenland |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/esp.4469 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fesp.4469 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/esp.4469 |
genre |
Greenland Nuussuaq |
genre_facet |
Greenland Nuussuaq |
op_source |
Earth Surface Processes and Landforms volume 43, issue 15, page 3057-3073 ISSN 0197-9337 1096-9837 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.4469 |
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Earth Surface Processes and Landforms |
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43 |
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15 |
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3057 |
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3073 |
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1810447228311961600 |