Spatial modelling of palsa mires in relation to climate in northern Europe

• Published in: Earth Surface Processes and Landforms
• Main Authors: Luoto, Miska, Fronzek, Stefan, Zuidhoff, Frieda S.
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Wiley 2004
• Subjects: palsa; permafrost
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/esp.1099; https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fesp.1099; https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/esp.1099

Abstract Palsa mires are mire complexes that occur in the Northern Hemisphere, representing one of the most marginal permafrost features at the outer limit of the permafrost zone. A climate‐based spatial model is presented for the distribution of palsa mires in northern Europe. The model is based on an extensive spatial data of palsa mires and climatological variables from 1913 grid cells in an area of c . 240 000 km 2 . Generalized linear modelling (GLM) with curvilinear and interaction terms is used to derive the palsa mire–climate relationships. The final model correctly classified 77·6 per cent of the palsa mire presence squares. The results indicate a positive association of the distribution of palsa mires with increasing frost number and continentality, whereas precipitation and temperature showed a negative correlation with the distribution of palsa mires. Additionally, interaction of thawing degree days and summer time precipitation showed a negative association. Climatologically, the optimum areas of palsa mires occur in areas of low precipitation (<450 mm) and a mean annual temperature between −3 °C and −5 °C. Potential reasons for the performance of the model and the sensitivity of palsa mires to climate change are discussed. The application of a GIS‐based generalized linear modelling as used here provides a versatile method to study the distribution of different geomorphological phenomena across climatological gradients. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.