A study of links between the Arctic and the midlatitude jet stream using Granger and Pearl causality
Abstract This paper investigates causal links between Arctic temperatures and the jet streams. We apply two different frameworks for this application based on the concepts of (1) Granger causality and (2) Pearl causality . Both methods show that Arctic temperature and jet speed and position all exhi...
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crwiley:10.1002/env.2540 2024-06-02T08:00:30+00:00 A study of links between the Arctic and the midlatitude jet stream using Granger and Pearl causality Samarasinghe, S. M. McGraw, M. C. Barnes, E. A. Ebert‐Uphoff, I. National Science Foundation 2018 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/env.2540 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fenv.2540 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/env.2540 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/env.2540 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/am-pdf/10.1002/env.2540 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#am http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Environmetrics volume 30, issue 4 ISSN 1180-4009 1099-095X journal-article 2018 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2540 2024-05-03T10:43:11Z Abstract This paper investigates causal links between Arctic temperatures and the jet streams. We apply two different frameworks for this application based on the concepts of (1) Granger causality and (2) Pearl causality . Both methods show that Arctic temperature and jet speed and position all exhibit strong autocorrelation, but they also show that these variables are linked together by two robust positive feedback loops that operate on time scales of 5–25 days. The dynamical implications of these feedbacks are discussed. This study is only the beginning of a larger effort to apply and compare different causality methods in order to gain a deeper understanding of the causal connections between the Arctic and weather at lower latitudes. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Wiley Online Library Arctic Environmetrics 30 4 |
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Wiley Online Library |
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English |
description |
Abstract This paper investigates causal links between Arctic temperatures and the jet streams. We apply two different frameworks for this application based on the concepts of (1) Granger causality and (2) Pearl causality . Both methods show that Arctic temperature and jet speed and position all exhibit strong autocorrelation, but they also show that these variables are linked together by two robust positive feedback loops that operate on time scales of 5–25 days. The dynamical implications of these feedbacks are discussed. This study is only the beginning of a larger effort to apply and compare different causality methods in order to gain a deeper understanding of the causal connections between the Arctic and weather at lower latitudes. |
author2 |
National Science Foundation |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Samarasinghe, S. M. McGraw, M. C. Barnes, E. A. Ebert‐Uphoff, I. |
spellingShingle |
Samarasinghe, S. M. McGraw, M. C. Barnes, E. A. Ebert‐Uphoff, I. A study of links between the Arctic and the midlatitude jet stream using Granger and Pearl causality |
author_facet |
Samarasinghe, S. M. McGraw, M. C. Barnes, E. A. Ebert‐Uphoff, I. |
author_sort |
Samarasinghe, S. M. |
title |
A study of links between the Arctic and the midlatitude jet stream using Granger and Pearl causality |
title_short |
A study of links between the Arctic and the midlatitude jet stream using Granger and Pearl causality |
title_full |
A study of links between the Arctic and the midlatitude jet stream using Granger and Pearl causality |
title_fullStr |
A study of links between the Arctic and the midlatitude jet stream using Granger and Pearl causality |
title_full_unstemmed |
A study of links between the Arctic and the midlatitude jet stream using Granger and Pearl causality |
title_sort |
study of links between the arctic and the midlatitude jet stream using granger and pearl causality |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/env.2540 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fenv.2540 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/env.2540 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/env.2540 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/am-pdf/10.1002/env.2540 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
Environmetrics volume 30, issue 4 ISSN 1180-4009 1099-095X |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#am http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2540 |
container_title |
Environmetrics |
container_volume |
30 |
container_issue |
4 |
_version_ |
1800744536706646016 |