Generalised additive point process models for natural hazard occurrence
Point processes are a natural class of models for representing occurrences of various types of natural hazard event. Flexibly implementing such models is often hindered by intractable likelihood forms. Consequently, the rates of point processes tend to be reduced to parametric forms, or the processe...
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crwiley:10.1002/env.2444 2024-06-02T08:11:24+00:00 Generalised additive point process models for natural hazard occurrence Youngman, Benjamin D. Economou, Theodoros 2017 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/env.2444 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fenv.2444 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/env.2444 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Environmetrics volume 28, issue 4 ISSN 1180-4009 1099-095X journal-article 2017 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2444 2024-05-03T12:01:42Z Point processes are a natural class of models for representing occurrences of various types of natural hazard event. Flexibly implementing such models is often hindered by intractable likelihood forms. Consequently, the rates of point processes tend to be reduced to parametric forms, or the processes are discretised to give data of readily modelled “count‐per‐unit” type. This work proposes generalised additive model forms for point process rates. The resulting low‐rank spatiotemporal representations of rates, coupled with the Laplace approximation, makes the restricted likelihood relatively tractable and hence inference for such models possible. The models can also be interpreted from a regression perspective. The proposed models are used to estimate different types of Cox process and then spatiotemporal variation in European windstorms. Through a combination of thin‐plate and cubic regression splines and their tensor product, established relationships between where windstorms occur and the state of the North Atlantic Oscillation are confirmed and then expanded to bring detailed understanding of within‐year variation, which has otherwise not been possible with count‐based models. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Wiley Online Library Laplace ENVELOPE(141.467,141.467,-66.782,-66.782) Environmetrics 28 4 |
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Open Polar |
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Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
language |
English |
description |
Point processes are a natural class of models for representing occurrences of various types of natural hazard event. Flexibly implementing such models is often hindered by intractable likelihood forms. Consequently, the rates of point processes tend to be reduced to parametric forms, or the processes are discretised to give data of readily modelled “count‐per‐unit” type. This work proposes generalised additive model forms for point process rates. The resulting low‐rank spatiotemporal representations of rates, coupled with the Laplace approximation, makes the restricted likelihood relatively tractable and hence inference for such models possible. The models can also be interpreted from a regression perspective. The proposed models are used to estimate different types of Cox process and then spatiotemporal variation in European windstorms. Through a combination of thin‐plate and cubic regression splines and their tensor product, established relationships between where windstorms occur and the state of the North Atlantic Oscillation are confirmed and then expanded to bring detailed understanding of within‐year variation, which has otherwise not been possible with count‐based models. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Youngman, Benjamin D. Economou, Theodoros |
spellingShingle |
Youngman, Benjamin D. Economou, Theodoros Generalised additive point process models for natural hazard occurrence |
author_facet |
Youngman, Benjamin D. Economou, Theodoros |
author_sort |
Youngman, Benjamin D. |
title |
Generalised additive point process models for natural hazard occurrence |
title_short |
Generalised additive point process models for natural hazard occurrence |
title_full |
Generalised additive point process models for natural hazard occurrence |
title_fullStr |
Generalised additive point process models for natural hazard occurrence |
title_full_unstemmed |
Generalised additive point process models for natural hazard occurrence |
title_sort |
generalised additive point process models for natural hazard occurrence |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/env.2444 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fenv.2444 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/env.2444 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(141.467,141.467,-66.782,-66.782) |
geographic |
Laplace |
geographic_facet |
Laplace |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Environmetrics volume 28, issue 4 ISSN 1180-4009 1099-095X |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2444 |
container_title |
Environmetrics |
container_volume |
28 |
container_issue |
4 |
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1800757519408168960 |