Risk for overexploiting a seemingly stable seal population: influence of multiple stressors and hunting

• Published in: Ecosphere
• Main Authors: Silva, Willian T. A. F., Bottagisio, Elio, Härkönen, Tero, Galatius, Anders, Olsen, Morten Tange, Harding, Karin C.
• Other Authors: Innovationsfonden, Academy of Finland, European Commission, Stiftelsen för Miljöstrategisk Forskning
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Wiley 2021
• Subjects: harbor seal
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.3343; https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ecs2.3343; https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/ecs2.3343; https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ecs2.3343

Abstract Conservation efforts have mainly been focused on depleted species or populations, but many formerly reduced marine mammal populations have recovered to historical abundances. This calls for new management strategies and new models for ecological risk assessment that incorporate local density dependence and multiple environmental stressors. The harbor seal metapopulation in Swedish and Danish waters has increased from about 2500 to 25,000 over the past 40 yr. Trend analysis based on aerial survey data and somatic growth curves indicates that the population is close to carrying capacity. We performed a population viability analysis based on realistic life history parameters and investigated a range of potential scenarios caused by future stressors. If the population is able to resume its high intrinsic rate of increase at about 11% annually, when pushed down below carrying capacity, it can also sustain additional mortality such as modest hunting and infrequent epizootics. However, if xenobiotics will cause even a slight reduction in average fecundity, the population becomes significantly more vulnerable. In the absence of epizootics, and given full reproductive capacity, hunting of a few hundred animals annually is not harmful to the long‐term persistence of the population. Nevertheless, a slight decrease in growth potential, for example, caused by exposure to endocrine disruptors, makes even limited hunting risky. Our study shows how an apparently stable and abundant marine mammal population can be close to a point of rapid population decline. Thus, careful monitoring of population size, growth rate, health, and exposure to xenobiotics as well as recording of the age and sex structure of the hunt is required to avoid repeating the history of overexploitation and another population collapse.