Multiple stressors: modeling the effect of pollution, climate, and predation on viability of a sub‐arctic marine bird
Abstract Negative effects of long‐transported pollutants, such as many persistent organic pollutants ( POP s), on seabirds and other top predators have been documented for decades. Yet, the concentrations, and hence, the negative impacts of many POP s have recently declined in the Northern Hemispher...
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crwiley:10.1002/ecs2.2342 2024-06-23T07:50:17+00:00 Multiple stressors: modeling the effect of pollution, climate, and predation on viability of a sub‐arctic marine bird Bårdsen, Bård‐Jørgen Hanssen, Sveinn Are Bustnes, Jan Ove Norges Forskningsråd 2018 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2342 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fecs2.2342 https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ecs2.2342 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ Ecosphere volume 9, issue 7 ISSN 2150-8925 2150-8925 journal-article 2018 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2342 2024-05-31T08:11:17Z Abstract Negative effects of long‐transported pollutants, such as many persistent organic pollutants ( POP s), on seabirds and other top predators have been documented for decades. Yet, the concentrations, and hence, the negative impacts of many POP s have recently declined in the Northern Hemisphere. However, organisms are exposed to multiple stressors and the impacts of pollution act in concert with both natural and other anthropogenic stressors. In theory, this means that even sub‐lethal POP concentrations may cause adverse effects if they co‐occur with increased levels of other stressors. We tested the multiple stress hypothesis on common eiders, a marine duck with a northern geographical distribution, by assessing the relative importance of pollution, climate (winter sea surface temperature; SST w), and egg predation on population dynamics and viability (i.e., extinction risk) using Leslie‐matrix population models. The model was parametrized by estimating reproduction and apparent adult survival using long‐term data from a common eider population in sub‐arctic Europe. Average annual adult survival was 0.80 (coefficient of variation [ CV ] = 22.00%) and showed a negative, both direct and delayed, relationship with SST w. Average clutch size was 4.41 eggs ( CV = 5.12%) and varied in time showing periods of both positive and negative trends, but showed no relationship with SST w. We based immature survival on estimates from literature: 0.52 and 0.68 for juveniles and yearlings, respectively. Our model supported the multiple stress hypothesis as changes in a single stressor did not induce extinctions, unless the magnitude of our manipulations was extreme except for egg predation. The effect of pollution was, however, increasingly negative when it co‐occurred with a warming climate and egg predation—and population viability was lowest when all the stressors occurred simultaneously. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Common Eider Wiley Online Library Arctic Ecosphere 9 7 e02342 |
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Open Polar |
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Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract Negative effects of long‐transported pollutants, such as many persistent organic pollutants ( POP s), on seabirds and other top predators have been documented for decades. Yet, the concentrations, and hence, the negative impacts of many POP s have recently declined in the Northern Hemisphere. However, organisms are exposed to multiple stressors and the impacts of pollution act in concert with both natural and other anthropogenic stressors. In theory, this means that even sub‐lethal POP concentrations may cause adverse effects if they co‐occur with increased levels of other stressors. We tested the multiple stress hypothesis on common eiders, a marine duck with a northern geographical distribution, by assessing the relative importance of pollution, climate (winter sea surface temperature; SST w), and egg predation on population dynamics and viability (i.e., extinction risk) using Leslie‐matrix population models. The model was parametrized by estimating reproduction and apparent adult survival using long‐term data from a common eider population in sub‐arctic Europe. Average annual adult survival was 0.80 (coefficient of variation [ CV ] = 22.00%) and showed a negative, both direct and delayed, relationship with SST w. Average clutch size was 4.41 eggs ( CV = 5.12%) and varied in time showing periods of both positive and negative trends, but showed no relationship with SST w. We based immature survival on estimates from literature: 0.52 and 0.68 for juveniles and yearlings, respectively. Our model supported the multiple stress hypothesis as changes in a single stressor did not induce extinctions, unless the magnitude of our manipulations was extreme except for egg predation. The effect of pollution was, however, increasingly negative when it co‐occurred with a warming climate and egg predation—and population viability was lowest when all the stressors occurred simultaneously. |
author2 |
Norges Forskningsråd |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bårdsen, Bård‐Jørgen Hanssen, Sveinn Are Bustnes, Jan Ove |
spellingShingle |
Bårdsen, Bård‐Jørgen Hanssen, Sveinn Are Bustnes, Jan Ove Multiple stressors: modeling the effect of pollution, climate, and predation on viability of a sub‐arctic marine bird |
author_facet |
Bårdsen, Bård‐Jørgen Hanssen, Sveinn Are Bustnes, Jan Ove |
author_sort |
Bårdsen, Bård‐Jørgen |
title |
Multiple stressors: modeling the effect of pollution, climate, and predation on viability of a sub‐arctic marine bird |
title_short |
Multiple stressors: modeling the effect of pollution, climate, and predation on viability of a sub‐arctic marine bird |
title_full |
Multiple stressors: modeling the effect of pollution, climate, and predation on viability of a sub‐arctic marine bird |
title_fullStr |
Multiple stressors: modeling the effect of pollution, climate, and predation on viability of a sub‐arctic marine bird |
title_full_unstemmed |
Multiple stressors: modeling the effect of pollution, climate, and predation on viability of a sub‐arctic marine bird |
title_sort |
multiple stressors: modeling the effect of pollution, climate, and predation on viability of a sub‐arctic marine bird |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2342 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fecs2.2342 https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ecs2.2342 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Common Eider |
genre_facet |
Arctic Common Eider |
op_source |
Ecosphere volume 9, issue 7 ISSN 2150-8925 2150-8925 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2342 |
container_title |
Ecosphere |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
e02342 |
_version_ |
1802641145806716928 |