Metapopulation regulation acts at multiple spatial scales: Insights from a century of seabird colony census data
Abstract Density‐dependent feedback is recognized as important regulatory mechanisms of population size. Considering the spatial scales over which such feedback operates has advanced our theoretical understanding of metapopulation dynamics. Yet, metapopulation models are rarely fit to time‐series da...
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crwiley:10.1002/ecm.1569 2024-09-30T14:40:03+00:00 Metapopulation regulation acts at multiple spatial scales: Insights from a century of seabird colony census data Jeglinski, Jana W. E. Wanless, Sarah Murray, Stuart Barrett, Robert T. Gardarsson, Arnthor Harris, Mike P. Dierschke, Jochen Strøm, Hallvard Lorentsen, Svein‐Håkon Matthiopoulos, Jason Deutscher Akademischer Austauschdienst Rannís Norsk institutt for naturforskning Norsk Polarinstitutt University of Glasgow 2023 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1569 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ecm.1569 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/ecm.1569 https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ecm.1569 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ Ecological Monographs volume 93, issue 2 ISSN 0012-9615 1557-7015 journal-article 2023 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1569 2024-09-05T05:06:20Z Abstract Density‐dependent feedback is recognized as important regulatory mechanisms of population size. Considering the spatial scales over which such feedback operates has advanced our theoretical understanding of metapopulation dynamics. Yet, metapopulation models are rarely fit to time‐series data and tend to omit details of the natural history and behavior of long‐lived, highly mobile species such as colonial mammals and birds. Seabird metapopulations consist of breeding colonies that are connected across large spatial scales, within a heterogeneous marine environment that is increasingly affected by anthropogenic disturbance. Currently, we know little about the strength and spatial scale of density‐dependent regulation and connectivity between colonies. Thus, many important seabird conservation and management decisions rely on outdated assumptions of closed populations that lack density‐dependent regulation. We investigated metapopulation dynamics and connectivity in an exemplar seabird species, the Northern gannet ( Morus bassanus ), using more than a century of census data of breeding colonies distributed across the Northeast Atlantic. We developed and fitted these data to a novel hierarchical Bayesian state‐space model, to compare increasingly complex scenarios of metapopulation regulation through lagged, local, regional, and global density dependence, as well as different mechanisms for immigration. Models with conspecific attraction fit the data better than the equipartitioning of immigrants. Considering local and regional density dependence jointly improved model fit slightly, but importantly, future colony size projections based on different mechanistic regulatory scenarios varied widely: a model with local and regional dynamics estimated a lower metapopulation capacity (645,655 Apparently Occupied Site [AOS]) and consequently higher present saturation (63%) than a model with local density dependence (1,367,352 AOS, 34%). Our findings suggest that metapopulation regulation in the gannet is more ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Northeast Atlantic Wiley Online Library Ecological Monographs 93 2 |
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Open Polar |
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Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract Density‐dependent feedback is recognized as important regulatory mechanisms of population size. Considering the spatial scales over which such feedback operates has advanced our theoretical understanding of metapopulation dynamics. Yet, metapopulation models are rarely fit to time‐series data and tend to omit details of the natural history and behavior of long‐lived, highly mobile species such as colonial mammals and birds. Seabird metapopulations consist of breeding colonies that are connected across large spatial scales, within a heterogeneous marine environment that is increasingly affected by anthropogenic disturbance. Currently, we know little about the strength and spatial scale of density‐dependent regulation and connectivity between colonies. Thus, many important seabird conservation and management decisions rely on outdated assumptions of closed populations that lack density‐dependent regulation. We investigated metapopulation dynamics and connectivity in an exemplar seabird species, the Northern gannet ( Morus bassanus ), using more than a century of census data of breeding colonies distributed across the Northeast Atlantic. We developed and fitted these data to a novel hierarchical Bayesian state‐space model, to compare increasingly complex scenarios of metapopulation regulation through lagged, local, regional, and global density dependence, as well as different mechanisms for immigration. Models with conspecific attraction fit the data better than the equipartitioning of immigrants. Considering local and regional density dependence jointly improved model fit slightly, but importantly, future colony size projections based on different mechanistic regulatory scenarios varied widely: a model with local and regional dynamics estimated a lower metapopulation capacity (645,655 Apparently Occupied Site [AOS]) and consequently higher present saturation (63%) than a model with local density dependence (1,367,352 AOS, 34%). Our findings suggest that metapopulation regulation in the gannet is more ... |
author2 |
Deutscher Akademischer Austauschdienst Rannís Norsk institutt for naturforskning Norsk Polarinstitutt University of Glasgow |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Jeglinski, Jana W. E. Wanless, Sarah Murray, Stuart Barrett, Robert T. Gardarsson, Arnthor Harris, Mike P. Dierschke, Jochen Strøm, Hallvard Lorentsen, Svein‐Håkon Matthiopoulos, Jason |
spellingShingle |
Jeglinski, Jana W. E. Wanless, Sarah Murray, Stuart Barrett, Robert T. Gardarsson, Arnthor Harris, Mike P. Dierschke, Jochen Strøm, Hallvard Lorentsen, Svein‐Håkon Matthiopoulos, Jason Metapopulation regulation acts at multiple spatial scales: Insights from a century of seabird colony census data |
author_facet |
Jeglinski, Jana W. E. Wanless, Sarah Murray, Stuart Barrett, Robert T. Gardarsson, Arnthor Harris, Mike P. Dierschke, Jochen Strøm, Hallvard Lorentsen, Svein‐Håkon Matthiopoulos, Jason |
author_sort |
Jeglinski, Jana W. E. |
title |
Metapopulation regulation acts at multiple spatial scales: Insights from a century of seabird colony census data |
title_short |
Metapopulation regulation acts at multiple spatial scales: Insights from a century of seabird colony census data |
title_full |
Metapopulation regulation acts at multiple spatial scales: Insights from a century of seabird colony census data |
title_fullStr |
Metapopulation regulation acts at multiple spatial scales: Insights from a century of seabird colony census data |
title_full_unstemmed |
Metapopulation regulation acts at multiple spatial scales: Insights from a century of seabird colony census data |
title_sort |
metapopulation regulation acts at multiple spatial scales: insights from a century of seabird colony census data |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1569 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ecm.1569 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/ecm.1569 https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ecm.1569 |
genre |
Northeast Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Northeast Atlantic |
op_source |
Ecological Monographs volume 93, issue 2 ISSN 0012-9615 1557-7015 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1569 |
container_title |
Ecological Monographs |
container_volume |
93 |
container_issue |
2 |
_version_ |
1811642597854150656 |