Predicting the distribution of plant associations under climate change: A case study on Larix gmelinii in China
Abstract Association is the basic unit of plant community classification. Exploring the distribution of plant associations can help improve our understanding of biodiversity conservation. Different associations depend on different habitats and studying the association level is important for ecologic...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.9374 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ece3.9374 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/ece3.9374 |
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crwiley:10.1002/ece3.9374 2024-09-15T18:30:08+00:00 Predicting the distribution of plant associations under climate change: A case study on Larix gmelinii in China Chen, Chen Zhang, Xi‐juan Wan, Ji‐zhong Gao, Fei‐fei Yuan, Shu‐sheng Sun, Tian‐tian Ni, Zhen‐dong Yu, Jing‐hua National Key Research and Development Program of China 2022 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.9374 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ece3.9374 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/ece3.9374 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Ecology and Evolution volume 12, issue 10 ISSN 2045-7758 2045-7758 journal-article 2022 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.9374 2024-08-30T04:09:36Z Abstract Association is the basic unit of plant community classification. Exploring the distribution of plant associations can help improve our understanding of biodiversity conservation. Different associations depend on different habitats and studying the association level is important for ecological restoration, regional ecological protection, regulating the ecological balance, and maintaining biodiversity. However, previous studies have only focused on suitable distribution areas for species and not on the distribution of plant associations. Larix gmelinii is a sensitive and abundant species that occurs along the southern margin of the Eurasian boreal forests, and its distribution is closely related to permafrost. In this study, 420 original plots of L. gmelinii forests were investigated. We used a Maxent model and the ArcGIS software to project the potential geographical distribution of L. gmelinii associations in the future (by 2050 and 2070) according to the climate scenarios RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5. We used the multi‐classification logistic regression analysis method to obtain the response of the suitable area change for the L. gmelinii alliance and associations to climate change under different climate scenarios. Results revealed that temperature is the most crucial factor affecting the distribution of L. gmelinii forests and most of its associations under different climate scenarios. Suitable areas for each association type are shrinking by varying degrees, especially due to habitat loss at high altitudes in special terrains. Different L. gmelinii associations should have different management measures based on the site conditions, composition structure, growth, development, and renewal succession trends. Subsequent research should consider data on biological factors to obtain more accurate prediction results. Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost Wiley Online Library Ecology and Evolution 12 10 |
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English |
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Abstract Association is the basic unit of plant community classification. Exploring the distribution of plant associations can help improve our understanding of biodiversity conservation. Different associations depend on different habitats and studying the association level is important for ecological restoration, regional ecological protection, regulating the ecological balance, and maintaining biodiversity. However, previous studies have only focused on suitable distribution areas for species and not on the distribution of plant associations. Larix gmelinii is a sensitive and abundant species that occurs along the southern margin of the Eurasian boreal forests, and its distribution is closely related to permafrost. In this study, 420 original plots of L. gmelinii forests were investigated. We used a Maxent model and the ArcGIS software to project the potential geographical distribution of L. gmelinii associations in the future (by 2050 and 2070) according to the climate scenarios RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5. We used the multi‐classification logistic regression analysis method to obtain the response of the suitable area change for the L. gmelinii alliance and associations to climate change under different climate scenarios. Results revealed that temperature is the most crucial factor affecting the distribution of L. gmelinii forests and most of its associations under different climate scenarios. Suitable areas for each association type are shrinking by varying degrees, especially due to habitat loss at high altitudes in special terrains. Different L. gmelinii associations should have different management measures based on the site conditions, composition structure, growth, development, and renewal succession trends. Subsequent research should consider data on biological factors to obtain more accurate prediction results. |
author2 |
National Key Research and Development Program of China |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Chen, Chen Zhang, Xi‐juan Wan, Ji‐zhong Gao, Fei‐fei Yuan, Shu‐sheng Sun, Tian‐tian Ni, Zhen‐dong Yu, Jing‐hua |
spellingShingle |
Chen, Chen Zhang, Xi‐juan Wan, Ji‐zhong Gao, Fei‐fei Yuan, Shu‐sheng Sun, Tian‐tian Ni, Zhen‐dong Yu, Jing‐hua Predicting the distribution of plant associations under climate change: A case study on Larix gmelinii in China |
author_facet |
Chen, Chen Zhang, Xi‐juan Wan, Ji‐zhong Gao, Fei‐fei Yuan, Shu‐sheng Sun, Tian‐tian Ni, Zhen‐dong Yu, Jing‐hua |
author_sort |
Chen, Chen |
title |
Predicting the distribution of plant associations under climate change: A case study on Larix gmelinii in China |
title_short |
Predicting the distribution of plant associations under climate change: A case study on Larix gmelinii in China |
title_full |
Predicting the distribution of plant associations under climate change: A case study on Larix gmelinii in China |
title_fullStr |
Predicting the distribution of plant associations under climate change: A case study on Larix gmelinii in China |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predicting the distribution of plant associations under climate change: A case study on Larix gmelinii in China |
title_sort |
predicting the distribution of plant associations under climate change: a case study on larix gmelinii in china |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.9374 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ece3.9374 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/ece3.9374 |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_source |
Ecology and Evolution volume 12, issue 10 ISSN 2045-7758 2045-7758 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.9374 |
container_title |
Ecology and Evolution |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
10 |
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1810471618408873984 |