Known unknowns in an imperfect world: incorporating uncertainty in recruitment estimates using multi‐event capture–recapture models
Abstract Studying the demography of wild animals remains challenging as several of the critical parts of their life history may be difficult to observe in the field. In particular, determining with certainty when an individual breeds for the first time is not always obvious. This can be problematic...
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crwiley:10.1002/ece3.846 2024-09-15T18:04:44+00:00 Known unknowns in an imperfect world: incorporating uncertainty in recruitment estimates using multi‐event capture–recapture models Desprez, Marine McMahon, Clive R. Hindell, Mark A. Harcourt, Robert Gimenez, Olivier 2013 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.846 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fece3.846 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ece3.846 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/ece3.846 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ Ecology and Evolution volume 3, issue 14, page 4658-4668 ISSN 2045-7758 2045-7758 journal-article 2013 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.846 2024-08-06T04:14:18Z Abstract Studying the demography of wild animals remains challenging as several of the critical parts of their life history may be difficult to observe in the field. In particular, determining with certainty when an individual breeds for the first time is not always obvious. This can be problematic because uncertainty about the transition from a prebreeder to a breeder state – recruitment – leads to uncertainty in vital rate estimates and in turn in population projection models. To avoid this issue, the common practice is to discard imperfect data from the analyses. However, this practice can generate a bias in vital rate estimates if uncertainty is related to a specific component of the population and reduces the sample size of the dataset and consequently the statistical power to detect effects of biological interest. Here, we compared the demographic parameters assessed from a standard multistate capture–recapture approach to the estimates obtained from the newly developed multi‐event framework that specifically accounts for uncertainty in state assessment. Using a comprehensive longitudinal dataset on southern elephant seals, we demonstrated that the multi‐event model enabled us to use all the data collected (6639 capture–recapture histories vs. 4179 with the multistate model) by accounting for uncertainty in breeding states, thereby increasing the precision and accuracy of the demographic parameter estimates. The multi‐event model allowed us to incorporate imperfect data into demographic analyses. The gain in precision obtained has important implications in the conservation and management of species because limiting uncertainty around vital rates will permit predicting population viability with greater accuracy. Article in Journal/Newspaper Elephant Seals Southern Elephant Seals Wiley Online Library Ecology and Evolution 3 14 4658 4668 |
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English |
description |
Abstract Studying the demography of wild animals remains challenging as several of the critical parts of their life history may be difficult to observe in the field. In particular, determining with certainty when an individual breeds for the first time is not always obvious. This can be problematic because uncertainty about the transition from a prebreeder to a breeder state – recruitment – leads to uncertainty in vital rate estimates and in turn in population projection models. To avoid this issue, the common practice is to discard imperfect data from the analyses. However, this practice can generate a bias in vital rate estimates if uncertainty is related to a specific component of the population and reduces the sample size of the dataset and consequently the statistical power to detect effects of biological interest. Here, we compared the demographic parameters assessed from a standard multistate capture–recapture approach to the estimates obtained from the newly developed multi‐event framework that specifically accounts for uncertainty in state assessment. Using a comprehensive longitudinal dataset on southern elephant seals, we demonstrated that the multi‐event model enabled us to use all the data collected (6639 capture–recapture histories vs. 4179 with the multistate model) by accounting for uncertainty in breeding states, thereby increasing the precision and accuracy of the demographic parameter estimates. The multi‐event model allowed us to incorporate imperfect data into demographic analyses. The gain in precision obtained has important implications in the conservation and management of species because limiting uncertainty around vital rates will permit predicting population viability with greater accuracy. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Desprez, Marine McMahon, Clive R. Hindell, Mark A. Harcourt, Robert Gimenez, Olivier |
spellingShingle |
Desprez, Marine McMahon, Clive R. Hindell, Mark A. Harcourt, Robert Gimenez, Olivier Known unknowns in an imperfect world: incorporating uncertainty in recruitment estimates using multi‐event capture–recapture models |
author_facet |
Desprez, Marine McMahon, Clive R. Hindell, Mark A. Harcourt, Robert Gimenez, Olivier |
author_sort |
Desprez, Marine |
title |
Known unknowns in an imperfect world: incorporating uncertainty in recruitment estimates using multi‐event capture–recapture models |
title_short |
Known unknowns in an imperfect world: incorporating uncertainty in recruitment estimates using multi‐event capture–recapture models |
title_full |
Known unknowns in an imperfect world: incorporating uncertainty in recruitment estimates using multi‐event capture–recapture models |
title_fullStr |
Known unknowns in an imperfect world: incorporating uncertainty in recruitment estimates using multi‐event capture–recapture models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Known unknowns in an imperfect world: incorporating uncertainty in recruitment estimates using multi‐event capture–recapture models |
title_sort |
known unknowns in an imperfect world: incorporating uncertainty in recruitment estimates using multi‐event capture–recapture models |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.846 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fece3.846 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ece3.846 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/ece3.846 |
genre |
Elephant Seals Southern Elephant Seals |
genre_facet |
Elephant Seals Southern Elephant Seals |
op_source |
Ecology and Evolution volume 3, issue 14, page 4658-4668 ISSN 2045-7758 2045-7758 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.846 |
container_title |
Ecology and Evolution |
container_volume |
3 |
container_issue |
14 |
container_start_page |
4658 |
op_container_end_page |
4668 |
_version_ |
1810442345745743872 |