Survival and abundance of polar bears in Alaska’s Beaufort Sea, 2001–2016
Abstract The Arctic Ocean is undergoing rapid transformation toward a seasonally ice‐free ecosystem. As ice‐adapted apex predators, polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) are challenged to cope with ongoing habitat degradation and changes in their prey base driven by food‐web response to climate warming. K...
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crwiley:10.1002/ece3.8139 2024-09-15T17:54:15+00:00 Survival and abundance of polar bears in Alaska’s Beaufort Sea, 2001–2016 Bromaghin, Jeffrey F. Douglas, David C. Durner, George M. Simac, Kristin S. Atwood, Todd C. 2021 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.8139 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ece3.8139 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/ece3.8139 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Ecology and Evolution volume 11, issue 20, page 14250-14267 ISSN 2045-7758 2045-7758 journal-article 2021 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.8139 2024-08-13T04:13:05Z Abstract The Arctic Ocean is undergoing rapid transformation toward a seasonally ice‐free ecosystem. As ice‐adapted apex predators, polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) are challenged to cope with ongoing habitat degradation and changes in their prey base driven by food‐web response to climate warming. Knowledge of polar bear response to environmental change is necessary to understand ecosystem dynamics and inform conservation decisions. In the southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) of Alaska and western Canada, sea ice extent has declined since satellite observations began in 1979 and available evidence suggests that the carrying capacity of the SBS for polar bears has trended lower for nearly two decades. In this study, we investigated the population dynamics of polar bears in Alaska's SBS from 2001 to 2016 using a multistate Cormack–Jolly–Seber mark–recapture model. States were defined as geographic regions, and we used location data from mark–recapture observations and satellite‐telemetered bears to model transitions between states and thereby explain heterogeneity in recapture probabilities. Our results corroborate prior findings that the SBS subpopulation experienced low survival from 2003 to 2006. Survival improved modestly from 2006 to 2008 and afterward rebounded to comparatively high levels for the remainder of the study, except in 2012. Abundance moved in concert with survival throughout the study period, declining substantially from 2003 and 2006 and afterward fluctuating with lower variation around an average of 565 bears (95% Bayesian credible interval [340, 920]) through 2015. Even though abundance was comparatively stable and without sustained trend from 2006 to 2015, polar bears in the Alaska SBS were less abundant over that period than at any time since passage of the U.S. Marine Mammal Protection Act. The potential for recovery is likely limited by the degree of habitat degradation the subpopulation has experienced, and future reductions in carrying capacity are expected given current projections for ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Ocean Beaufort Sea Sea ice Ursus maritimus Alaska Wiley Online Library Ecology and Evolution 11 20 14250 14267 |
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Open Polar |
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Wiley Online Library |
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language |
English |
description |
Abstract The Arctic Ocean is undergoing rapid transformation toward a seasonally ice‐free ecosystem. As ice‐adapted apex predators, polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) are challenged to cope with ongoing habitat degradation and changes in their prey base driven by food‐web response to climate warming. Knowledge of polar bear response to environmental change is necessary to understand ecosystem dynamics and inform conservation decisions. In the southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) of Alaska and western Canada, sea ice extent has declined since satellite observations began in 1979 and available evidence suggests that the carrying capacity of the SBS for polar bears has trended lower for nearly two decades. In this study, we investigated the population dynamics of polar bears in Alaska's SBS from 2001 to 2016 using a multistate Cormack–Jolly–Seber mark–recapture model. States were defined as geographic regions, and we used location data from mark–recapture observations and satellite‐telemetered bears to model transitions between states and thereby explain heterogeneity in recapture probabilities. Our results corroborate prior findings that the SBS subpopulation experienced low survival from 2003 to 2006. Survival improved modestly from 2006 to 2008 and afterward rebounded to comparatively high levels for the remainder of the study, except in 2012. Abundance moved in concert with survival throughout the study period, declining substantially from 2003 and 2006 and afterward fluctuating with lower variation around an average of 565 bears (95% Bayesian credible interval [340, 920]) through 2015. Even though abundance was comparatively stable and without sustained trend from 2006 to 2015, polar bears in the Alaska SBS were less abundant over that period than at any time since passage of the U.S. Marine Mammal Protection Act. The potential for recovery is likely limited by the degree of habitat degradation the subpopulation has experienced, and future reductions in carrying capacity are expected given current projections for ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bromaghin, Jeffrey F. Douglas, David C. Durner, George M. Simac, Kristin S. Atwood, Todd C. |
spellingShingle |
Bromaghin, Jeffrey F. Douglas, David C. Durner, George M. Simac, Kristin S. Atwood, Todd C. Survival and abundance of polar bears in Alaska’s Beaufort Sea, 2001–2016 |
author_facet |
Bromaghin, Jeffrey F. Douglas, David C. Durner, George M. Simac, Kristin S. Atwood, Todd C. |
author_sort |
Bromaghin, Jeffrey F. |
title |
Survival and abundance of polar bears in Alaska’s Beaufort Sea, 2001–2016 |
title_short |
Survival and abundance of polar bears in Alaska’s Beaufort Sea, 2001–2016 |
title_full |
Survival and abundance of polar bears in Alaska’s Beaufort Sea, 2001–2016 |
title_fullStr |
Survival and abundance of polar bears in Alaska’s Beaufort Sea, 2001–2016 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Survival and abundance of polar bears in Alaska’s Beaufort Sea, 2001–2016 |
title_sort |
survival and abundance of polar bears in alaska’s beaufort sea, 2001–2016 |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.8139 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ece3.8139 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/ece3.8139 |
genre |
Arctic Ocean Beaufort Sea Sea ice Ursus maritimus Alaska |
genre_facet |
Arctic Ocean Beaufort Sea Sea ice Ursus maritimus Alaska |
op_source |
Ecology and Evolution volume 11, issue 20, page 14250-14267 ISSN 2045-7758 2045-7758 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.8139 |
container_title |
Ecology and Evolution |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
20 |
container_start_page |
14250 |
op_container_end_page |
14267 |
_version_ |
1810430490868449280 |