Prediction of Arctic plant phenological sensitivity to climate change from historical records
Abstract The pace of climate change in the Arctic is dramatic, with temperatures rising at a rate double the global average. The timing of flowering and fruiting (phenology) is often temperature dependent and tends to advance as the climate warms. Herbarium specimens, photographs, and field observat...
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crwiley:10.1002/ece3.2702 2024-09-15T18:02:10+00:00 Prediction of Arctic plant phenological sensitivity to climate change from historical records Panchen, Zoe A. Gorelick, Root Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada 2017 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.2702 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fece3.2702 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ece3.2702 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Ecology and Evolution volume 7, issue 5, page 1325-1338 ISSN 2045-7758 2045-7758 journal-article 2017 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.2702 2024-08-06T04:20:17Z Abstract The pace of climate change in the Arctic is dramatic, with temperatures rising at a rate double the global average. The timing of flowering and fruiting (phenology) is often temperature dependent and tends to advance as the climate warms. Herbarium specimens, photographs, and field observations can provide historical phenology records and have been used, on a localised scale, to predict species’ phenological sensitivity to climate change. Conducting similar localised studies in the Canadian Arctic, however, poses a challenge where the collection of herbarium specimens, photographs, and field observations have been temporally and spatially sporadic. We used flowering and seed dispersal times of 23 Arctic species from herbarium specimens, photographs, and field observations collected from across the 2.1 million km 2 area of Nunavut, Canada, to determine (1) which monthly temperatures influence flowering and seed dispersal times; (2) species’ phenological sensitivity to temperature; and (3) whether flowering or seed dispersal times have advanced over the past 120 years. We tested this at different spatial scales and compared the sensitivity in different regions of Nunavut. Broadly speaking, this research serves as a proof of concept to assess whether phenology–climate change studies using historic data can be conducted at large spatial scales. Flowering times and seed dispersal time were most strongly correlated with June and July temperatures, respectively. Seed dispersal times have advanced at double the rate of flowering times over the past 120 years, reflecting greater late‐summer temperature rises in Nunavut. There is great diversity in the flowering time sensitivity to temperature of Arctic plant species, suggesting climate change implications for Arctic ecological communities, including altered community composition, competition, and pollinator interactions. Intraspecific temperature sensitivity and warming trends varied markedly across Nunavut and could result in greater changes in some parts of ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Climate change Nunavut Wiley Online Library Ecology and Evolution 7 5 1325 1338 |
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Abstract The pace of climate change in the Arctic is dramatic, with temperatures rising at a rate double the global average. The timing of flowering and fruiting (phenology) is often temperature dependent and tends to advance as the climate warms. Herbarium specimens, photographs, and field observations can provide historical phenology records and have been used, on a localised scale, to predict species’ phenological sensitivity to climate change. Conducting similar localised studies in the Canadian Arctic, however, poses a challenge where the collection of herbarium specimens, photographs, and field observations have been temporally and spatially sporadic. We used flowering and seed dispersal times of 23 Arctic species from herbarium specimens, photographs, and field observations collected from across the 2.1 million km 2 area of Nunavut, Canada, to determine (1) which monthly temperatures influence flowering and seed dispersal times; (2) species’ phenological sensitivity to temperature; and (3) whether flowering or seed dispersal times have advanced over the past 120 years. We tested this at different spatial scales and compared the sensitivity in different regions of Nunavut. Broadly speaking, this research serves as a proof of concept to assess whether phenology–climate change studies using historic data can be conducted at large spatial scales. Flowering times and seed dispersal time were most strongly correlated with June and July temperatures, respectively. Seed dispersal times have advanced at double the rate of flowering times over the past 120 years, reflecting greater late‐summer temperature rises in Nunavut. There is great diversity in the flowering time sensitivity to temperature of Arctic plant species, suggesting climate change implications for Arctic ecological communities, including altered community composition, competition, and pollinator interactions. Intraspecific temperature sensitivity and warming trends varied markedly across Nunavut and could result in greater changes in some parts of ... |
author2 |
Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Panchen, Zoe A. Gorelick, Root |
spellingShingle |
Panchen, Zoe A. Gorelick, Root Prediction of Arctic plant phenological sensitivity to climate change from historical records |
author_facet |
Panchen, Zoe A. Gorelick, Root |
author_sort |
Panchen, Zoe A. |
title |
Prediction of Arctic plant phenological sensitivity to climate change from historical records |
title_short |
Prediction of Arctic plant phenological sensitivity to climate change from historical records |
title_full |
Prediction of Arctic plant phenological sensitivity to climate change from historical records |
title_fullStr |
Prediction of Arctic plant phenological sensitivity to climate change from historical records |
title_full_unstemmed |
Prediction of Arctic plant phenological sensitivity to climate change from historical records |
title_sort |
prediction of arctic plant phenological sensitivity to climate change from historical records |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.2702 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fece3.2702 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ece3.2702 |
genre |
Climate change Nunavut |
genre_facet |
Climate change Nunavut |
op_source |
Ecology and Evolution volume 7, issue 5, page 1325-1338 ISSN 2045-7758 2045-7758 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.2702 |
container_title |
Ecology and Evolution |
container_volume |
7 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
1325 |
op_container_end_page |
1338 |
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1810439469575176192 |