Endurance of larch forest ecosystems in eastern Siberia under warming trends
Abstract The larch ( Larix spp.) forest in eastern Siberia is the world's largest coniferous forest. Its persistence is considered to depend on near‐surface permafrost, and thus, forecast warming over the 21st century and consequent degradation of near‐surface permafrost is expected to affect t...
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crwiley:10.1002/ece3.2285 2024-10-06T13:52:07+00:00 Endurance of larch forest ecosystems in eastern Siberia under warming trends Sato, Hisashi Kobayashi, Hideki Iwahana, Go Ohta, Takeshi Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology 2016 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.2285 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fece3.2285 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ece3.2285 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/ece3.2285 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Ecology and Evolution volume 6, issue 16, page 5690-5704 ISSN 2045-7758 2045-7758 journal-article 2016 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.2285 2024-09-11T04:16:54Z Abstract The larch ( Larix spp.) forest in eastern Siberia is the world's largest coniferous forest. Its persistence is considered to depend on near‐surface permafrost, and thus, forecast warming over the 21st century and consequent degradation of near‐surface permafrost is expected to affect the larch forest in Siberia. However, predictions of these effects vary greatly, and many uncertainties remain about land – atmosphere interactions within the ecosystem. We developed an integrated land surface model to analyze how the Siberian larch forest will react to current warming trends. This model analyzed interactions between vegetation dynamics and thermo‐hydrology, although it does not consider many processes those are considered to affect productivity response to a changing climate (e.g., nitrogen limitation, waterlogged soil, heat stress, and change in species composition). The model showed that, under climatic conditions predicted under gradual and rapid warming, the annual net primary production of larch increased about 2 and 3 times, respectively, by the end of the 21st century compared with that in the previous century. Soil water content during the larch‐growing season showed no obvious trend, even when surface permafrost was allowed to decay and result in subsurface runoff. A sensitivity test showed that the forecast temperature and precipitation trends extended larch leafing days and reduced water shortages during the growing season, thereby increasing productivity. The integrated model also satisfactorily reconstructed latitudinal gradients in permafrost presence, soil moisture, tree leaf area index, and biomass over the entire larch‐dominated area in eastern Siberia. Projected changes to ecosystem hydrology and larch productivity at this geographical scale were consistent with those from site‐level simulation. This study reduces the uncertainty surrounding the impact of current climate trends on this globally important carbon reservoir, and it demonstrates the need to consider complex ecological ... Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost Siberia Wiley Online Library Ecology and Evolution 6 16 5690 5704 |
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Wiley Online Library |
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English |
description |
Abstract The larch ( Larix spp.) forest in eastern Siberia is the world's largest coniferous forest. Its persistence is considered to depend on near‐surface permafrost, and thus, forecast warming over the 21st century and consequent degradation of near‐surface permafrost is expected to affect the larch forest in Siberia. However, predictions of these effects vary greatly, and many uncertainties remain about land – atmosphere interactions within the ecosystem. We developed an integrated land surface model to analyze how the Siberian larch forest will react to current warming trends. This model analyzed interactions between vegetation dynamics and thermo‐hydrology, although it does not consider many processes those are considered to affect productivity response to a changing climate (e.g., nitrogen limitation, waterlogged soil, heat stress, and change in species composition). The model showed that, under climatic conditions predicted under gradual and rapid warming, the annual net primary production of larch increased about 2 and 3 times, respectively, by the end of the 21st century compared with that in the previous century. Soil water content during the larch‐growing season showed no obvious trend, even when surface permafrost was allowed to decay and result in subsurface runoff. A sensitivity test showed that the forecast temperature and precipitation trends extended larch leafing days and reduced water shortages during the growing season, thereby increasing productivity. The integrated model also satisfactorily reconstructed latitudinal gradients in permafrost presence, soil moisture, tree leaf area index, and biomass over the entire larch‐dominated area in eastern Siberia. Projected changes to ecosystem hydrology and larch productivity at this geographical scale were consistent with those from site‐level simulation. This study reduces the uncertainty surrounding the impact of current climate trends on this globally important carbon reservoir, and it demonstrates the need to consider complex ecological ... |
author2 |
Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Sato, Hisashi Kobayashi, Hideki Iwahana, Go Ohta, Takeshi |
spellingShingle |
Sato, Hisashi Kobayashi, Hideki Iwahana, Go Ohta, Takeshi Endurance of larch forest ecosystems in eastern Siberia under warming trends |
author_facet |
Sato, Hisashi Kobayashi, Hideki Iwahana, Go Ohta, Takeshi |
author_sort |
Sato, Hisashi |
title |
Endurance of larch forest ecosystems in eastern Siberia under warming trends |
title_short |
Endurance of larch forest ecosystems in eastern Siberia under warming trends |
title_full |
Endurance of larch forest ecosystems in eastern Siberia under warming trends |
title_fullStr |
Endurance of larch forest ecosystems in eastern Siberia under warming trends |
title_full_unstemmed |
Endurance of larch forest ecosystems in eastern Siberia under warming trends |
title_sort |
endurance of larch forest ecosystems in eastern siberia under warming trends |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.2285 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fece3.2285 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ece3.2285 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/ece3.2285 |
genre |
permafrost Siberia |
genre_facet |
permafrost Siberia |
op_source |
Ecology and Evolution volume 6, issue 16, page 5690-5704 ISSN 2045-7758 2045-7758 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.2285 |
container_title |
Ecology and Evolution |
container_volume |
6 |
container_issue |
16 |
container_start_page |
5690 |
op_container_end_page |
5704 |
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1812180443221458944 |