Demographic and traditional knowledge perspectives on the current status of Canadian polar bear subpopulations

Abstract Subpopulation growth rates and the probability of decline at current harvest levels were determined for 13 subpopulations of polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) that are within or shared with Canada based on mark–recapture estimates of population numbers and vital rates, and harvest statistics...

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Published in:Ecology and Evolution
Main Authors: York, Jordan, Dowsley, Martha, Cornwell, Adam, Kuc, Miroslaw, Taylor, Mitchell
Other Authors: Lakehead University Graduate Fellowship, SSHRC Scholarship
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2016
Subjects:
Online Access:http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.2030
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spelling crwiley:10.1002/ece3.2030 2024-06-02T08:03:49+00:00 Demographic and traditional knowledge perspectives on the current status of Canadian polar bear subpopulations York, Jordan Dowsley, Martha Cornwell, Adam Kuc, Miroslaw Taylor, Mitchell Lakehead University Graduate Fellowship SSHRC Scholarship 2016 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.2030 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fece3.2030 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ece3.2030 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/ece3.2030 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Ecology and Evolution volume 6, issue 9, page 2897-2924 ISSN 2045-7758 2045-7758 journal-article 2016 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.2030 2024-05-03T11:44:18Z Abstract Subpopulation growth rates and the probability of decline at current harvest levels were determined for 13 subpopulations of polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) that are within or shared with Canada based on mark–recapture estimates of population numbers and vital rates, and harvest statistics using population viability analyses ( PVA ). Aboriginal traditional ecological knowledge ( TEK ) on subpopulation trend agreed with the seven stable/increasing results and one of the declining results, but disagreed with PVA status of five other declining subpopulations. The decline in the Baffin Bay subpopulation appeared to be due to over‐reporting of harvested numbers from outside Canada. The remaining four disputed subpopulations (Southern Beaufort Sea, Northern Beaufort Sea, Southern Hudson Bay, and Western Hudson Bay) were all incompletely mark–recapture (M‐R) sampled, which may have biased their survival and subpopulation estimates. Three of the four incompletely sampled subpopulations were PVA identified as nonviable (i.e., declining even with zero harvest mortality). TEK disagreement was nonrandom with respect to M‐R sampling protocols. Cluster analysis also grouped subpopulations with ambiguous demographic and harvest rate estimates separately from those with apparently reliable demographic estimates based on PVA probability of decline and unharvested subpopulation growth rate criteria. We suggest that the correspondence between TEK and scientific results can be used to improve the reliability of information on natural systems and thus improve resource management. Considering both TEK and scientific information, we suggest that the current status of Canadian polar bear subpopulations in 2013 was 12 stable/increasing and one declining (Kane Basin). We do not find support for the perspective that polar bears within or shared with Canada are currently in any sort of climate crisis. We suggest that monitoring the impacts of climate change (including sea ice decline) on polar bear subpopulations should be ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Baffin Bay Baffin Bay Baffin Beaufort Sea Hudson Bay Kane Basin Sea ice Ursus maritimus Wiley Online Library Baffin Bay Canada Hudson Hudson Bay Kane ENVELOPE(-63.038,-63.038,-73.952,-73.952) Ecology and Evolution 6 9 2897 2924
institution Open Polar
collection Wiley Online Library
op_collection_id crwiley
language English
description Abstract Subpopulation growth rates and the probability of decline at current harvest levels were determined for 13 subpopulations of polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) that are within or shared with Canada based on mark–recapture estimates of population numbers and vital rates, and harvest statistics using population viability analyses ( PVA ). Aboriginal traditional ecological knowledge ( TEK ) on subpopulation trend agreed with the seven stable/increasing results and one of the declining results, but disagreed with PVA status of five other declining subpopulations. The decline in the Baffin Bay subpopulation appeared to be due to over‐reporting of harvested numbers from outside Canada. The remaining four disputed subpopulations (Southern Beaufort Sea, Northern Beaufort Sea, Southern Hudson Bay, and Western Hudson Bay) were all incompletely mark–recapture (M‐R) sampled, which may have biased their survival and subpopulation estimates. Three of the four incompletely sampled subpopulations were PVA identified as nonviable (i.e., declining even with zero harvest mortality). TEK disagreement was nonrandom with respect to M‐R sampling protocols. Cluster analysis also grouped subpopulations with ambiguous demographic and harvest rate estimates separately from those with apparently reliable demographic estimates based on PVA probability of decline and unharvested subpopulation growth rate criteria. We suggest that the correspondence between TEK and scientific results can be used to improve the reliability of information on natural systems and thus improve resource management. Considering both TEK and scientific information, we suggest that the current status of Canadian polar bear subpopulations in 2013 was 12 stable/increasing and one declining (Kane Basin). We do not find support for the perspective that polar bears within or shared with Canada are currently in any sort of climate crisis. We suggest that monitoring the impacts of climate change (including sea ice decline) on polar bear subpopulations should be ...
author2 Lakehead University Graduate Fellowship
SSHRC Scholarship
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author York, Jordan
Dowsley, Martha
Cornwell, Adam
Kuc, Miroslaw
Taylor, Mitchell
spellingShingle York, Jordan
Dowsley, Martha
Cornwell, Adam
Kuc, Miroslaw
Taylor, Mitchell
Demographic and traditional knowledge perspectives on the current status of Canadian polar bear subpopulations
author_facet York, Jordan
Dowsley, Martha
Cornwell, Adam
Kuc, Miroslaw
Taylor, Mitchell
author_sort York, Jordan
title Demographic and traditional knowledge perspectives on the current status of Canadian polar bear subpopulations
title_short Demographic and traditional knowledge perspectives on the current status of Canadian polar bear subpopulations
title_full Demographic and traditional knowledge perspectives on the current status of Canadian polar bear subpopulations
title_fullStr Demographic and traditional knowledge perspectives on the current status of Canadian polar bear subpopulations
title_full_unstemmed Demographic and traditional knowledge perspectives on the current status of Canadian polar bear subpopulations
title_sort demographic and traditional knowledge perspectives on the current status of canadian polar bear subpopulations
publisher Wiley
publishDate 2016
url http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.2030
https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fece3.2030
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ece3.2030
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/ece3.2030
long_lat ENVELOPE(-63.038,-63.038,-73.952,-73.952)
geographic Baffin Bay
Canada
Hudson
Hudson Bay
Kane
geographic_facet Baffin Bay
Canada
Hudson
Hudson Bay
Kane
genre Baffin Bay
Baffin Bay
Baffin
Beaufort Sea
Hudson Bay
Kane Basin
Sea ice
Ursus maritimus
genre_facet Baffin Bay
Baffin Bay
Baffin
Beaufort Sea
Hudson Bay
Kane Basin
Sea ice
Ursus maritimus
op_source Ecology and Evolution
volume 6, issue 9, page 2897-2924
ISSN 2045-7758 2045-7758
op_rights http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
op_doi https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.2030
container_title Ecology and Evolution
container_volume 6
container_issue 9
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