Assessing dynamic vegetation model parameter uncertainty across Alaskan arctic tundra plant communities
Abstract As the Arctic region moves into uncharted territory under a warming climate, it is important to refine the terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) that help us understand and predict change. One fundamental uncertainty in TBMs relates to model parameters, configuration variables internal to the...
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crwiley:10.1002/eap.2499 2024-06-23T07:49:57+00:00 Assessing dynamic vegetation model parameter uncertainty across Alaskan arctic tundra plant communities Euskirchen, Eugénie S. Serbin, Shawn P. Carman, Tobey B. Fraterrigo, Jennifer M. Genet, Hélène Iversen, Colleen M. Salmon, Verity McGuire, A. David U.S. Department of Energy U.S. Geological Survey 2021 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/eap.2499 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/eap.2499 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/eap.2499 https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/eap.2499 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ Ecological Applications volume 32, issue 2 ISSN 1051-0761 1939-5582 journal-article 2021 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.2499 2024-06-13T04:24:59Z Abstract As the Arctic region moves into uncharted territory under a warming climate, it is important to refine the terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) that help us understand and predict change. One fundamental uncertainty in TBMs relates to model parameters, configuration variables internal to the model whose value can be estimated from data. We incorporate a version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) developed for arctic ecosystems into the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) framework. PEcAn treats model parameters as probability distributions, estimates parameters based on a synthesis of available field data, and then quantifies both model sensitivity and uncertainty to a given parameter or suite of parameters. We examined how variation in 21 parameters in the equation for gross primary production influenced model sensitivity and uncertainty in terms of two carbon fluxes (net primary productivity and heterotrophic respiration) and two carbon (C) pools (vegetation C and soil C). We set up different parameterizations of TEM across a range of tundra types (tussock tundra, heath tundra, wet sedge tundra, and shrub tundra) in northern Alaska, along a latitudinal transect extending from the coastal plain near Utqiaġvik to the southern foothills of the Brooks Range, to the Seward Peninsula. TEM was most sensitive to parameters related to the temperature regulation of photosynthesis. Model uncertainty was mostly due to parameters related to leaf area, temperature regulation of photosynthesis, and the stomatal responses to ambient light conditions. Our analysis also showed that sensitivity and uncertainty to a given parameter varied spatially. At some sites, model sensitivity and uncertainty tended to be connected to a wider range of parameters, underlining the importance of assessing tundra community processes across environmental gradients or geographic locations. Generally, across sites, the flux of net primary productivity (NPP) and pool of vegetation C had about equal uncertainty, while heterotrophic ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Brooks Range Seward Peninsula Tundra Alaska Wiley Online Library Arctic Ecological Applications |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Wiley Online Library |
op_collection_id |
crwiley |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract As the Arctic region moves into uncharted territory under a warming climate, it is important to refine the terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) that help us understand and predict change. One fundamental uncertainty in TBMs relates to model parameters, configuration variables internal to the model whose value can be estimated from data. We incorporate a version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) developed for arctic ecosystems into the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) framework. PEcAn treats model parameters as probability distributions, estimates parameters based on a synthesis of available field data, and then quantifies both model sensitivity and uncertainty to a given parameter or suite of parameters. We examined how variation in 21 parameters in the equation for gross primary production influenced model sensitivity and uncertainty in terms of two carbon fluxes (net primary productivity and heterotrophic respiration) and two carbon (C) pools (vegetation C and soil C). We set up different parameterizations of TEM across a range of tundra types (tussock tundra, heath tundra, wet sedge tundra, and shrub tundra) in northern Alaska, along a latitudinal transect extending from the coastal plain near Utqiaġvik to the southern foothills of the Brooks Range, to the Seward Peninsula. TEM was most sensitive to parameters related to the temperature regulation of photosynthesis. Model uncertainty was mostly due to parameters related to leaf area, temperature regulation of photosynthesis, and the stomatal responses to ambient light conditions. Our analysis also showed that sensitivity and uncertainty to a given parameter varied spatially. At some sites, model sensitivity and uncertainty tended to be connected to a wider range of parameters, underlining the importance of assessing tundra community processes across environmental gradients or geographic locations. Generally, across sites, the flux of net primary productivity (NPP) and pool of vegetation C had about equal uncertainty, while heterotrophic ... |
author2 |
U.S. Department of Energy U.S. Geological Survey |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Euskirchen, Eugénie S. Serbin, Shawn P. Carman, Tobey B. Fraterrigo, Jennifer M. Genet, Hélène Iversen, Colleen M. Salmon, Verity McGuire, A. David |
spellingShingle |
Euskirchen, Eugénie S. Serbin, Shawn P. Carman, Tobey B. Fraterrigo, Jennifer M. Genet, Hélène Iversen, Colleen M. Salmon, Verity McGuire, A. David Assessing dynamic vegetation model parameter uncertainty across Alaskan arctic tundra plant communities |
author_facet |
Euskirchen, Eugénie S. Serbin, Shawn P. Carman, Tobey B. Fraterrigo, Jennifer M. Genet, Hélène Iversen, Colleen M. Salmon, Verity McGuire, A. David |
author_sort |
Euskirchen, Eugénie S. |
title |
Assessing dynamic vegetation model parameter uncertainty across Alaskan arctic tundra plant communities |
title_short |
Assessing dynamic vegetation model parameter uncertainty across Alaskan arctic tundra plant communities |
title_full |
Assessing dynamic vegetation model parameter uncertainty across Alaskan arctic tundra plant communities |
title_fullStr |
Assessing dynamic vegetation model parameter uncertainty across Alaskan arctic tundra plant communities |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assessing dynamic vegetation model parameter uncertainty across Alaskan arctic tundra plant communities |
title_sort |
assessing dynamic vegetation model parameter uncertainty across alaskan arctic tundra plant communities |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/eap.2499 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/eap.2499 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/eap.2499 https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/eap.2499 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Brooks Range Seward Peninsula Tundra Alaska |
genre_facet |
Arctic Brooks Range Seward Peninsula Tundra Alaska |
op_source |
Ecological Applications volume 32, issue 2 ISSN 1051-0761 1939-5582 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.2499 |
container_title |
Ecological Applications |
_version_ |
1802640696792842240 |