Implications of Allee effects for fisheries management in a changing climate: evidence from Atlantic cod
Abstract There are concerns that increasing anthropogenic stressors can cause catastrophic transitions in ecosystems. Such shifts have large social, economic, and ecological consequences and therefore have important management implications. A potential mechanism behind these regime shifts is the All...
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crwiley:10.1002/eap.1994 2024-09-15T17:55:28+00:00 Implications of Allee effects for fisheries management in a changing climate: evidence from Atlantic cod Winter, Anna‐Marie Richter, Andries Eikeset, Anne Maria 2019 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/eap.1994 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/eap.1994 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/eap.1994 https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/eap.1994 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Ecological Applications volume 30, issue 1 ISSN 1051-0761 1939-5582 journal-article 2019 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.1994 2024-07-25T04:24:07Z Abstract There are concerns that increasing anthropogenic stressors can cause catastrophic transitions in ecosystems. Such shifts have large social, economic, and ecological consequences and therefore have important management implications. A potential mechanism behind these regime shifts is the Allee effect, which describes the decline in realized per capita growth rate at small population density. With an age‐structured population model for Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua , we illustrate how interactions between human‐induced stressors, such as fishing and climate change, can worsen the impact of an Allee effect on populations by promoting hysteresis. Therefore, the risk of population collapse and recovery failure is exacerbated and the success of preventing and reverting collapse depends on the climate regime. We find that, in presence of the Allee effect, a fishing moratorium is only sufficient for recovery when sea surface temperature rise remains within 2°C and fishing is restricted within 10 yrs. If sea surface temperature rises beyond 2°C, even immediate banning of fishing is not sufficient to guarantee recovery. If fishing is not fully banned and a residual fishing pressure remains, the probability of recovery is further decreased, also in the absence of an Allee effect. The results underscore the decisive role of Allee effects for the management of depleted populations in an increasingly human‐dominated world. Once the population collapses and its growth rate is suppressed, rebuilding measures will be squandered and collapse will very likely be irreversible. We therefore emphasize the need for proactive management involving precautionary, adaptive measures and reference points. Our studies shows that climate change has the potential to strengthen Allee effects, which could increasingly challenge fisheries management. Article in Journal/Newspaper atlantic cod Gadus morhua Wiley Online Library Ecological Applications 30 1 |
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English |
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Abstract There are concerns that increasing anthropogenic stressors can cause catastrophic transitions in ecosystems. Such shifts have large social, economic, and ecological consequences and therefore have important management implications. A potential mechanism behind these regime shifts is the Allee effect, which describes the decline in realized per capita growth rate at small population density. With an age‐structured population model for Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua , we illustrate how interactions between human‐induced stressors, such as fishing and climate change, can worsen the impact of an Allee effect on populations by promoting hysteresis. Therefore, the risk of population collapse and recovery failure is exacerbated and the success of preventing and reverting collapse depends on the climate regime. We find that, in presence of the Allee effect, a fishing moratorium is only sufficient for recovery when sea surface temperature rise remains within 2°C and fishing is restricted within 10 yrs. If sea surface temperature rises beyond 2°C, even immediate banning of fishing is not sufficient to guarantee recovery. If fishing is not fully banned and a residual fishing pressure remains, the probability of recovery is further decreased, also in the absence of an Allee effect. The results underscore the decisive role of Allee effects for the management of depleted populations in an increasingly human‐dominated world. Once the population collapses and its growth rate is suppressed, rebuilding measures will be squandered and collapse will very likely be irreversible. We therefore emphasize the need for proactive management involving precautionary, adaptive measures and reference points. Our studies shows that climate change has the potential to strengthen Allee effects, which could increasingly challenge fisheries management. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Winter, Anna‐Marie Richter, Andries Eikeset, Anne Maria |
spellingShingle |
Winter, Anna‐Marie Richter, Andries Eikeset, Anne Maria Implications of Allee effects for fisheries management in a changing climate: evidence from Atlantic cod |
author_facet |
Winter, Anna‐Marie Richter, Andries Eikeset, Anne Maria |
author_sort |
Winter, Anna‐Marie |
title |
Implications of Allee effects for fisheries management in a changing climate: evidence from Atlantic cod |
title_short |
Implications of Allee effects for fisheries management in a changing climate: evidence from Atlantic cod |
title_full |
Implications of Allee effects for fisheries management in a changing climate: evidence from Atlantic cod |
title_fullStr |
Implications of Allee effects for fisheries management in a changing climate: evidence from Atlantic cod |
title_full_unstemmed |
Implications of Allee effects for fisheries management in a changing climate: evidence from Atlantic cod |
title_sort |
implications of allee effects for fisheries management in a changing climate: evidence from atlantic cod |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/eap.1994 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/eap.1994 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/eap.1994 https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/eap.1994 |
genre |
atlantic cod Gadus morhua |
genre_facet |
atlantic cod Gadus morhua |
op_source |
Ecological Applications volume 30, issue 1 ISSN 1051-0761 1939-5582 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.1994 |
container_title |
Ecological Applications |
container_volume |
30 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1810431755096686592 |