Predictability of European winter 2015/2016
Abstract We present a case study of long range forecasts for Northern Hemisphere winter 2015/2016. This winter produced the strongest El Niño event since 1997/1998 and equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies exceeded 3 °C. Other factors relevant to the Northern Hemisphere extratropical...
Published in: | Atmospheric Science Letters |
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crwiley:10.1002/asl.721 2024-09-09T19:56:27+00:00 Predictability of European winter 2015/2016 Scaife, Adam A. Comer, Ruth Dunstone, Nick Fereday, David Folland, Chris Good, Elizabeth Gordon, Margaret Hermanson, Leon Ineson, Sarah Karpechko, Alexey Knight, Jeff MacLachlan, Craig Maidens, Anna Peterson, K. Andrew Smith, Doug Slingo, Julia Walker, Brent Joint DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme UK Public Weather Service research program European Union Framework 7 SPECS project 2017 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/asl.721 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fasl.721 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/asl.721 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Atmospheric Science Letters volume 18, issue 2, page 38-44 ISSN 1530-261X 1530-261X journal-article 2017 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.721 2024-08-06T04:17:47Z Abstract We present a case study of long range forecasts for Northern Hemisphere winter 2015/2016. This winter produced the strongest El Niño event since 1997/1998 and equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies exceeded 3 °C. Other factors relevant to the Northern Hemisphere extratropical atmosphere circulation included a strong westerly phase of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation ( QBO ) and very strong winds in the stratospheric polar night jet in early winter. At the surface, intense cyclonic extratropical circulation anomalies occurred in early winter in both the North Pacific and North Atlantic, consistent with known teleconnections to these phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the QBO and the polar night jet. The midlatitude flow was very westerly in early winter and less westerly and sometimes northerly in late winter, when sudden stratospheric warming events also occurred. We show that initialised climate predictions were able to capture the winter mean flow pattern at seasonal lead times from well before the start of winter. In this special case, not only the winter mean flow pattern, but also some aspects of the sub‐seasonal evolution were skilfully predicted. We show that the winter of 1982/1983 was closely analogous to winter 2015/2016 in both the predictable driving factors and the forecast winter circulation. This case study adds to the evidence that the north Atlantic circulation can be predictable on seasonal timescales and advance warning of the increased risk of intense rainfall and storminess which caused extreme flooding in the UK in December was possible in this case. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic polar night Wiley Online Library Pacific Atmospheric Science Letters 18 2 38 44 |
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Wiley Online Library |
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English |
description |
Abstract We present a case study of long range forecasts for Northern Hemisphere winter 2015/2016. This winter produced the strongest El Niño event since 1997/1998 and equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies exceeded 3 °C. Other factors relevant to the Northern Hemisphere extratropical atmosphere circulation included a strong westerly phase of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation ( QBO ) and very strong winds in the stratospheric polar night jet in early winter. At the surface, intense cyclonic extratropical circulation anomalies occurred in early winter in both the North Pacific and North Atlantic, consistent with known teleconnections to these phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the QBO and the polar night jet. The midlatitude flow was very westerly in early winter and less westerly and sometimes northerly in late winter, when sudden stratospheric warming events also occurred. We show that initialised climate predictions were able to capture the winter mean flow pattern at seasonal lead times from well before the start of winter. In this special case, not only the winter mean flow pattern, but also some aspects of the sub‐seasonal evolution were skilfully predicted. We show that the winter of 1982/1983 was closely analogous to winter 2015/2016 in both the predictable driving factors and the forecast winter circulation. This case study adds to the evidence that the north Atlantic circulation can be predictable on seasonal timescales and advance warning of the increased risk of intense rainfall and storminess which caused extreme flooding in the UK in December was possible in this case. |
author2 |
Joint DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme UK Public Weather Service research program European Union Framework 7 SPECS project |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Scaife, Adam A. Comer, Ruth Dunstone, Nick Fereday, David Folland, Chris Good, Elizabeth Gordon, Margaret Hermanson, Leon Ineson, Sarah Karpechko, Alexey Knight, Jeff MacLachlan, Craig Maidens, Anna Peterson, K. Andrew Smith, Doug Slingo, Julia Walker, Brent |
spellingShingle |
Scaife, Adam A. Comer, Ruth Dunstone, Nick Fereday, David Folland, Chris Good, Elizabeth Gordon, Margaret Hermanson, Leon Ineson, Sarah Karpechko, Alexey Knight, Jeff MacLachlan, Craig Maidens, Anna Peterson, K. Andrew Smith, Doug Slingo, Julia Walker, Brent Predictability of European winter 2015/2016 |
author_facet |
Scaife, Adam A. Comer, Ruth Dunstone, Nick Fereday, David Folland, Chris Good, Elizabeth Gordon, Margaret Hermanson, Leon Ineson, Sarah Karpechko, Alexey Knight, Jeff MacLachlan, Craig Maidens, Anna Peterson, K. Andrew Smith, Doug Slingo, Julia Walker, Brent |
author_sort |
Scaife, Adam A. |
title |
Predictability of European winter 2015/2016 |
title_short |
Predictability of European winter 2015/2016 |
title_full |
Predictability of European winter 2015/2016 |
title_fullStr |
Predictability of European winter 2015/2016 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predictability of European winter 2015/2016 |
title_sort |
predictability of european winter 2015/2016 |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/asl.721 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fasl.721 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/asl.721 |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic polar night |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic polar night |
op_source |
Atmospheric Science Letters volume 18, issue 2, page 38-44 ISSN 1530-261X 1530-261X |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.721 |
container_title |
Atmospheric Science Letters |
container_volume |
18 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
38 |
op_container_end_page |
44 |
_version_ |
1809927158461628416 |