Seasonal winter forecasts and the stratosphere
Abstract We investigate seasonal forecasts of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their relationship with the stratosphere. Climatological frequencies of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) and strong polar vortex (SPV) events are well represented and the predicted risk of events varies b...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/asl.598 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fasl.598 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/asl.598 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/asl.598 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/asl.598 |
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crwiley:10.1002/asl.598 2024-06-23T07:55:02+00:00 Seasonal winter forecasts and the stratosphere Scaife, A. A. Karpechko, A. Yu. Baldwin, M. P. Brookshaw, A. Butler, A. H. Eade, R. Gordon, M. MacLachlan, C. Martin, N. Dunstone, N. Smith, D. Suomen Akatemia 2015 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/asl.598 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fasl.598 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/asl.598 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/asl.598 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/asl.598 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Atmospheric Science Letters volume 17, issue 1, page 51-56 ISSN 1530-261X 1530-261X journal-article 2015 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.598 2024-06-13T04:22:07Z Abstract We investigate seasonal forecasts of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their relationship with the stratosphere. Climatological frequencies of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) and strong polar vortex (SPV) events are well represented and the predicted risk of events varies between 25 and 90% from winter to winter, indicating predictability beyond the deterministic range. The risk of SSW and SPV events relates to predicted NAO as expected, with NAO shifts of −6.5 and +4.8 hPa in forecast members containing SSW and SPV events. Most striking of all is that forecast skill of the surface winter NAO vanishes from these hindcasts if members containing SSW events are excluded. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Wiley Online Library Atmospheric Science Letters 17 1 51 56 |
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Wiley Online Library |
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language |
English |
description |
Abstract We investigate seasonal forecasts of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their relationship with the stratosphere. Climatological frequencies of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) and strong polar vortex (SPV) events are well represented and the predicted risk of events varies between 25 and 90% from winter to winter, indicating predictability beyond the deterministic range. The risk of SSW and SPV events relates to predicted NAO as expected, with NAO shifts of −6.5 and +4.8 hPa in forecast members containing SSW and SPV events. Most striking of all is that forecast skill of the surface winter NAO vanishes from these hindcasts if members containing SSW events are excluded. |
author2 |
Suomen Akatemia |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Scaife, A. A. Karpechko, A. Yu. Baldwin, M. P. Brookshaw, A. Butler, A. H. Eade, R. Gordon, M. MacLachlan, C. Martin, N. Dunstone, N. Smith, D. |
spellingShingle |
Scaife, A. A. Karpechko, A. Yu. Baldwin, M. P. Brookshaw, A. Butler, A. H. Eade, R. Gordon, M. MacLachlan, C. Martin, N. Dunstone, N. Smith, D. Seasonal winter forecasts and the stratosphere |
author_facet |
Scaife, A. A. Karpechko, A. Yu. Baldwin, M. P. Brookshaw, A. Butler, A. H. Eade, R. Gordon, M. MacLachlan, C. Martin, N. Dunstone, N. Smith, D. |
author_sort |
Scaife, A. A. |
title |
Seasonal winter forecasts and the stratosphere |
title_short |
Seasonal winter forecasts and the stratosphere |
title_full |
Seasonal winter forecasts and the stratosphere |
title_fullStr |
Seasonal winter forecasts and the stratosphere |
title_full_unstemmed |
Seasonal winter forecasts and the stratosphere |
title_sort |
seasonal winter forecasts and the stratosphere |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/asl.598 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fasl.598 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/asl.598 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/asl.598 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/asl.598 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Atmospheric Science Letters volume 17, issue 1, page 51-56 ISSN 1530-261X 1530-261X |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.598 |
container_title |
Atmospheric Science Letters |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
51 |
op_container_end_page |
56 |
_version_ |
1802647434458824704 |