Predictability of European winter 2021/2022: Influence of La Niña and stratospheric polar vortex
Abstract The Northern Hemisphere winter of 2021/2022 exhibited a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which led to largely mild and wet conditions for Northern Europe. A moderate La Niña in the tropical Pacific and a stronger than average stratospheric polar vortex together explained the observ...
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crwiley:10.1002/asl.1255 2024-06-23T07:55:08+00:00 Predictability of European winter 2021/2022: Influence of La Niña and stratospheric polar vortex McLean, Peter Bulmer, Chris Davies, Paul Dunstone, Nick Gordon, Margaret Ineson, Sarah Kelly, Jason Kettleborough, Jamie Knight, Jeff Lockwood, Julia Florence Scaife, Adam A. Smith, Doug Stringer, Nicky Walker, Brent Met Office 2024 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/asl.1255 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/asl.1255 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Atmospheric Science Letters ISSN 1530-261X 1530-261X journal-article 2024 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1255 2024-06-13T04:20:21Z Abstract The Northern Hemisphere winter of 2021/2022 exhibited a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which led to largely mild and wet conditions for Northern Europe. A moderate La Niña in the tropical Pacific and a stronger than average stratospheric polar vortex together explained the observed anomalies over the winter. Winter 2021/2022 was well predicted in general by seasonal forecast systems. The ensemble mean indicated a positive winter NAO and the forecast spread of forecasts from the Met Office GloSea6 seasonal prediction system spanned the observed mean sea level pressure anomaly for the whole winter and the individual months. However, December showed the largest departure from the mean of the forecast which is consistent with evidence from previous work that early winter ENSO teleconnections are too weak in model predictions. Nevertheless, around one in four members captured the negative NAO pattern in December. The strong pressure gradient and positive NAO predicted for the latter part of the winter allowed successful warning of the possibility of above average storminess and strong winds which occurred in February 2022. This is potentially useful information for the energy sector who increasingly rely on wind power and the insurance industry for warning of storm damage. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Wiley Online Library Pacific Atmospheric Science Letters |
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Open Polar |
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Wiley Online Library |
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crwiley |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract The Northern Hemisphere winter of 2021/2022 exhibited a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which led to largely mild and wet conditions for Northern Europe. A moderate La Niña in the tropical Pacific and a stronger than average stratospheric polar vortex together explained the observed anomalies over the winter. Winter 2021/2022 was well predicted in general by seasonal forecast systems. The ensemble mean indicated a positive winter NAO and the forecast spread of forecasts from the Met Office GloSea6 seasonal prediction system spanned the observed mean sea level pressure anomaly for the whole winter and the individual months. However, December showed the largest departure from the mean of the forecast which is consistent with evidence from previous work that early winter ENSO teleconnections are too weak in model predictions. Nevertheless, around one in four members captured the negative NAO pattern in December. The strong pressure gradient and positive NAO predicted for the latter part of the winter allowed successful warning of the possibility of above average storminess and strong winds which occurred in February 2022. This is potentially useful information for the energy sector who increasingly rely on wind power and the insurance industry for warning of storm damage. |
author2 |
Met Office |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
McLean, Peter Bulmer, Chris Davies, Paul Dunstone, Nick Gordon, Margaret Ineson, Sarah Kelly, Jason Kettleborough, Jamie Knight, Jeff Lockwood, Julia Florence Scaife, Adam A. Smith, Doug Stringer, Nicky Walker, Brent |
spellingShingle |
McLean, Peter Bulmer, Chris Davies, Paul Dunstone, Nick Gordon, Margaret Ineson, Sarah Kelly, Jason Kettleborough, Jamie Knight, Jeff Lockwood, Julia Florence Scaife, Adam A. Smith, Doug Stringer, Nicky Walker, Brent Predictability of European winter 2021/2022: Influence of La Niña and stratospheric polar vortex |
author_facet |
McLean, Peter Bulmer, Chris Davies, Paul Dunstone, Nick Gordon, Margaret Ineson, Sarah Kelly, Jason Kettleborough, Jamie Knight, Jeff Lockwood, Julia Florence Scaife, Adam A. Smith, Doug Stringer, Nicky Walker, Brent |
author_sort |
McLean, Peter |
title |
Predictability of European winter 2021/2022: Influence of La Niña and stratospheric polar vortex |
title_short |
Predictability of European winter 2021/2022: Influence of La Niña and stratospheric polar vortex |
title_full |
Predictability of European winter 2021/2022: Influence of La Niña and stratospheric polar vortex |
title_fullStr |
Predictability of European winter 2021/2022: Influence of La Niña and stratospheric polar vortex |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predictability of European winter 2021/2022: Influence of La Niña and stratospheric polar vortex |
title_sort |
predictability of european winter 2021/2022: influence of la niña and stratospheric polar vortex |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/asl.1255 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/asl.1255 |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Atmospheric Science Letters ISSN 1530-261X 1530-261X |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1255 |
container_title |
Atmospheric Science Letters |
_version_ |
1802647590901121024 |