Comparison of different global ensemble prediction systems for tropical cyclone intensity forecasting

• Published in: Atmospheric Science Letters
• Main Authors: Lu, Deyu, Ding, Ruiqiang, Mao, Jiangyu, Zhong, Quanjia, Zou, Qian
• Other Authors: National Natural Science Foundation of China
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Wiley 2024
• Subjects: Pacific; North Atlantic
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/asl.1207; https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/asl.1207

Abstract Many meteorological centers have operationally implemented global model‐based ensemble prediction systems (GEPSs), making tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts from these systems available. The relatively low resolution of these GEPSs means that limits previous studies primarily focused on TC track forecasting. However, recent GEPS upgrades mean that TC intensity predictions from GEPSs are now also becoming of interest. This study focuses on the verification and comparison of the latest generation of GEPSs for TC intensity forecasts, particularly during the rapid intensification (RI) period over the western North Pacific (WP), eastern North Pacific (EP), and North Atlantic (NA) basins in 2021–2022. On average, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) GEPS performed best in predicting both TC intensity and RI across all three basins. Nevertheless, the exact timing of RI remains highly uncertain for these GEPS, indicating significant limitations in using GEPSs to forecast RI.