Substantial changes in the probability of future annual temperature extremes
Abstract Extreme temperature events causing significant environmental and humanitarian impacts are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude due to global warming. The latest generation of climate model projections, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six (CMIP6), provides a new and im...
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crwiley:10.1002/asl.1061 2024-06-02T08:02:42+00:00 Substantial changes in the probability of future annual temperature extremes Slater, Ross Freychet, Nicolas Hegerl, Gabriele 2021 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/asl.1061 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/asl.1061 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/asl.1061 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/asl.1061 en eng Wiley http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Atmospheric Science Letters volume 22, issue 11 ISSN 1530-261X 1530-261X journal-article 2021 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1061 2024-05-03T10:49:20Z Abstract Extreme temperature events causing significant environmental and humanitarian impacts are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude due to global warming. The latest generation of climate model projections, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six (CMIP6), provides a new and improved database to investigate change in future daily scale extreme temperature events. This study examines the changes in 1, 3, and 5 day averaged annual maximum temperature in four large CMIP6 ensembles. It analyses, using a generalized extreme value (GEV) method, the change in extreme daily mean temperatures at 1.5 and 2°C of global warming, levels highlighted by the 2016 Paris Agreement, and additionally at 3°C. Extremely hot events are characterized using the annual maxima of daily near surface air temperature in the SSP370 scenario. Global changes in the mode of the distributions (location parameter) follow long‐term summer warming and show very similar spatial patterns. Changes in variability (scale parameter) show a clear trend of increases over the tropics and decreases over higher latitudes, while changes to the tails of distributions (shape parameter) show less globally consistent trends but clear signals over the Arctic sea ice, behaviour also seen in variability. Risk ratios (RRs) indicating the change in probability of hot daily extremes that currently have a 10 year return period increase globally with mean temperature change, with greater increases over the tropics. Globally averaged changes in RR over land range from 3.1–3.6 to 7.9–8.3 for 1.5 and 3°C of warming, respectively. For the latter case, this indicates previously rare, once‐in‐a‐decade summer extremes will occur almost annually in the future under high warming. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Global warming Sea ice Wiley Online Library Arctic Atmospheric Science Letters 22 11 |
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Wiley Online Library |
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English |
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Abstract Extreme temperature events causing significant environmental and humanitarian impacts are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude due to global warming. The latest generation of climate model projections, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six (CMIP6), provides a new and improved database to investigate change in future daily scale extreme temperature events. This study examines the changes in 1, 3, and 5 day averaged annual maximum temperature in four large CMIP6 ensembles. It analyses, using a generalized extreme value (GEV) method, the change in extreme daily mean temperatures at 1.5 and 2°C of global warming, levels highlighted by the 2016 Paris Agreement, and additionally at 3°C. Extremely hot events are characterized using the annual maxima of daily near surface air temperature in the SSP370 scenario. Global changes in the mode of the distributions (location parameter) follow long‐term summer warming and show very similar spatial patterns. Changes in variability (scale parameter) show a clear trend of increases over the tropics and decreases over higher latitudes, while changes to the tails of distributions (shape parameter) show less globally consistent trends but clear signals over the Arctic sea ice, behaviour also seen in variability. Risk ratios (RRs) indicating the change in probability of hot daily extremes that currently have a 10 year return period increase globally with mean temperature change, with greater increases over the tropics. Globally averaged changes in RR over land range from 3.1–3.6 to 7.9–8.3 for 1.5 and 3°C of warming, respectively. For the latter case, this indicates previously rare, once‐in‐a‐decade summer extremes will occur almost annually in the future under high warming. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Slater, Ross Freychet, Nicolas Hegerl, Gabriele |
spellingShingle |
Slater, Ross Freychet, Nicolas Hegerl, Gabriele Substantial changes in the probability of future annual temperature extremes |
author_facet |
Slater, Ross Freychet, Nicolas Hegerl, Gabriele |
author_sort |
Slater, Ross |
title |
Substantial changes in the probability of future annual temperature extremes |
title_short |
Substantial changes in the probability of future annual temperature extremes |
title_full |
Substantial changes in the probability of future annual temperature extremes |
title_fullStr |
Substantial changes in the probability of future annual temperature extremes |
title_full_unstemmed |
Substantial changes in the probability of future annual temperature extremes |
title_sort |
substantial changes in the probability of future annual temperature extremes |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/asl.1061 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/asl.1061 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/asl.1061 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/asl.1061 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Global warming Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Global warming Sea ice |
op_source |
Atmospheric Science Letters volume 22, issue 11 ISSN 1530-261X 1530-261X |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1061 |
container_title |
Atmospheric Science Letters |
container_volume |
22 |
container_issue |
11 |
_version_ |
1800747183489679360 |