Harbour seal ( Phoca vitulina) abundance within the Firth of Tay and Eden Estuary, Scotland: recent trends and extrapolation to extinction
Abstract Aerial surveys have detected alarming declines in counts of harbour seals in several regions across Scotland. Demographic data and simple models were used to examine the recent decline in the numbers of harbour seals counted in one population within a Special Area of Conservation (SAC) on t...
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crwiley:10.1002/aqc.2609 2024-06-02T08:07:48+00:00 Harbour seal ( Phoca vitulina) abundance within the Firth of Tay and Eden Estuary, Scotland: recent trends and extrapolation to extinction Hanson, Nora Thompson, Dave Duck, Callan Baxter, John Lonergan, Mike 2015 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/aqc.2609 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Faqc.2609 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/aqc.2609 en eng Wiley http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems volume 27, issue 1, page 268-281 ISSN 1052-7613 1099-0755 journal-article 2015 crwiley https://doi.org/10.1002/aqc.2609 2024-05-03T11:04:13Z Abstract Aerial surveys have detected alarming declines in counts of harbour seals in several regions across Scotland. Demographic data and simple models were used to examine the recent decline in the numbers of harbour seals counted in one population within a Special Area of Conservation (SAC) on the east coast of Scotland. The models suggest that the continuation of current trends would result in the species effectively disappearing from this area within the next 20 years. While the cause of the decline is unknown, it must be reducing adult survival because the high rate of decline cannot be wholly accounted for by changes in other demographic parameters. Recovery of the population to the abundance recorded at the time the SAC was designated (2005) is likely to take at least 40 years, even if the cause of the decline is immediately identified and removed. The models suggest that partial removal of the cause can have only limited benefits to population recovery, and there are unlikely to be any long‐term benefits from introducing or reintroducing additional individuals while the underlying problem persists. Therefore, if the population of harbour seals in this area is to recover it is essential that the sources of the increased mortality are identified and measures are put in place to manage these. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Article in Journal/Newspaper harbour seal Phoca vitulina Wiley Online Library Firth of Tay ENVELOPE(-55.567,-55.567,-63.350,-63.350) Tay ENVELOPE(-55.750,-55.750,-63.367,-63.367) Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems 27 1 268 281 |
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Abstract Aerial surveys have detected alarming declines in counts of harbour seals in several regions across Scotland. Demographic data and simple models were used to examine the recent decline in the numbers of harbour seals counted in one population within a Special Area of Conservation (SAC) on the east coast of Scotland. The models suggest that the continuation of current trends would result in the species effectively disappearing from this area within the next 20 years. While the cause of the decline is unknown, it must be reducing adult survival because the high rate of decline cannot be wholly accounted for by changes in other demographic parameters. Recovery of the population to the abundance recorded at the time the SAC was designated (2005) is likely to take at least 40 years, even if the cause of the decline is immediately identified and removed. The models suggest that partial removal of the cause can have only limited benefits to population recovery, and there are unlikely to be any long‐term benefits from introducing or reintroducing additional individuals while the underlying problem persists. Therefore, if the population of harbour seals in this area is to recover it is essential that the sources of the increased mortality are identified and measures are put in place to manage these. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hanson, Nora Thompson, Dave Duck, Callan Baxter, John Lonergan, Mike |
spellingShingle |
Hanson, Nora Thompson, Dave Duck, Callan Baxter, John Lonergan, Mike Harbour seal ( Phoca vitulina) abundance within the Firth of Tay and Eden Estuary, Scotland: recent trends and extrapolation to extinction |
author_facet |
Hanson, Nora Thompson, Dave Duck, Callan Baxter, John Lonergan, Mike |
author_sort |
Hanson, Nora |
title |
Harbour seal ( Phoca vitulina) abundance within the Firth of Tay and Eden Estuary, Scotland: recent trends and extrapolation to extinction |
title_short |
Harbour seal ( Phoca vitulina) abundance within the Firth of Tay and Eden Estuary, Scotland: recent trends and extrapolation to extinction |
title_full |
Harbour seal ( Phoca vitulina) abundance within the Firth of Tay and Eden Estuary, Scotland: recent trends and extrapolation to extinction |
title_fullStr |
Harbour seal ( Phoca vitulina) abundance within the Firth of Tay and Eden Estuary, Scotland: recent trends and extrapolation to extinction |
title_full_unstemmed |
Harbour seal ( Phoca vitulina) abundance within the Firth of Tay and Eden Estuary, Scotland: recent trends and extrapolation to extinction |
title_sort |
harbour seal ( phoca vitulina) abundance within the firth of tay and eden estuary, scotland: recent trends and extrapolation to extinction |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/aqc.2609 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Faqc.2609 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/aqc.2609 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-55.567,-55.567,-63.350,-63.350) ENVELOPE(-55.750,-55.750,-63.367,-63.367) |
geographic |
Firth of Tay Tay |
geographic_facet |
Firth of Tay Tay |
genre |
harbour seal Phoca vitulina |
genre_facet |
harbour seal Phoca vitulina |
op_source |
Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems volume 27, issue 1, page 268-281 ISSN 1052-7613 1099-0755 |
op_rights |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/aqc.2609 |
container_title |
Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems |
container_volume |
27 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
268 |
op_container_end_page |
281 |
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1800752927455838208 |